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Message: [QUOTE="MCC, post: 4570464, member: 145"] The fault lies not in the Bayesian analysis, but in the weighting of various parameters by whoever designed the model. My sense of Miyzawa's BPR is that it 'overweights' missed field goals and may discard too many possessions it deems as 'unhelpful' (e.g, when a game is out of hand). A fairly obvious problem emerges: players on teams that experience lots of blowouts are harder to measure, and players who are asked to do too much - or players who force the action (e.g. freshman guards) - are penalized excessively. No question that his defensive impact lags; almost all models will rate bigs higher. In toto, I think the Bayesian readout here is fair. [/QUOTE]