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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 3307579, member: 1969"] I have a post below I had made on December 16th predicting the # of seeds by conference (in red font below). I made the following predictions of seeds by conference: Big Ten - 9 (LY = 8) Big 12 - 6 (LY - 6) ACC - 6 (LY = 7) Pac-12 - 6 (LY - 3) Big East - 5 (LY -4) SEC - 4 (LY-7) AAC - 3 (LY - 4) I was not that far off based on current matrix. BIG 10 - One more than expected BIG 12 - One less than expected ACC- One or two less than expected. Pac-12 - Predicted they would have 6. Big East - This was my big miss - but as a conference they must have done well between December 16th and December 30. SEC - 4 as expected Really just too high on the ACC, and a little low on the Big East. I suspect the ACC struggled a little in the last two weeks of out of conference play. ---------------------- [COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)]While Conference RPI is not the best tool, I don't have many other conference rankings on hand, and it still correlates well to predictions even in the NET era. You certainly can't predict individual teams, but schools that will dominate the # of seeds and top 5 seed lines. is possible to assess by now. And this year it will be the Big 10 and the Big 12, who were both very strong last year as well. [IMG alt="1576527154972.png"]https://syracusefan.com/attachments/1576527154972-png.174168/[/IMG] The big movers from the last couple of years is as follows: The Pac 12 is comfortably up and will move up from 3 seeds, to a best guess of 6 seeds. The SEC is way way down. They were 7 seeds last year, but I think they go to 4 or 5. The ACC is down a fair bit as well -- they had seven last year, but I see the SEC taking a bigger hit. The AAC had 4 bids last year, but has fell from #6 to #8 in conference rankings. Last year 39 bids went to the top 7 conferences. This is my prediction for this year, assuming the same mix of bracket busters. I also don't think there will be a massive shift in teams outside of these conferences getting at large based on last year. Big Ten - 9 (LY = 8) Big 12 - 6 (LY - 6) ACC - 6 (LY = 7) Pac-12 - 6 (LY - 3) Big East - 5 (LY -4) SEC - 4 (LY-7) AAC - 3 (LY - 4)[/COLOR] [/QUOTE]

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