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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2114129, member: 1969"]
Time to discuss Illinois St again as 26% on the matrix think they good.  Is there any reasonable the committee sees it.

Illinois St
26-6. RPI #31
1-2 vs top 50 (1-2 vs Wichita St (say a 7 seed), won at home)
 1-2 vs 51-100 (Home vs #86 New Mexico, Lost at TCU, Lost vs San Francisco (Neutral) )
Bad Losses - At #232 Murray St, At Tulsa #130)
Power Ranking Avg (KP/BPI/Sag) = #56

One could argue that these types of teams don't get the opportunities of P5 teams.   I agree, I like to give these type of schools the benefit of the doubt which you can see from my posts in prior years or even this year (Nevada / Mid Tenn St)

1.  I have no issue with a team with an empty OOC resume because some times it's hard for these schools to line up teams.   [B]But it's not a case of a good but empty OOC resume with Illinois St.   It was just a bad OOC - they lost to Murray St, Tulsa, TCU, and  vs San Francisco.  They only beat New Mexico.   [/B]I want to give them the benefit of the doubt but I just can't.

2.  There is one other factor I cite.to compare apples and oranges.  (P5 vs real mid major).    And that is the power rankings which consider the fact that some schools can't control the schedule.   If it's top 40-50, you can possibly get the benefit of the doubt.  (But note that St. Mary's and Valpo did not last year)  But it was #56.   Once again I want to give them the benefit of the doubt in a weak bubble but I have no basis to do so.

It's not even close.   A team like Nevada for example had a much better resume than Illinois St.

Verdict - [B]95% chance of NIT[/B]
[/QUOTE]

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