Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive) | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive)

jncuse

I brought the Cocaine to the White House
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Yesterday went very well. Not quite 100% perfect because now we rely strongly on VCU, but still it went well.

Current Bracket Matrix (Estimate)


Xavier
Vanderbilt
Providence
Wake Forest
USC
Kansas State
Rhode Island
--- IN/OUT----
Syracuse
Illinois St

All of the above teams are done with the exception of Rhode Island who plays Davidson.

The teams below the line are very thin. That is outstanding news for us. If there are no bubble busters, all we need is the committee to think we are better than one of the 7 teams above the line that I have showed above.

So the issue now is Bubble Busters -

Middle Tennessee St
must win CUSA final over Marshall
VCU Must win A-10
Cincy / SMU must win AAC
Alabama one of SEC Final 4, cannot win.
Nevada would be nice if they win MWC final tomorrow, but not great chance at an at-large.
 
Tomorrow's Schedule




upload_2017-3-11_0-13-34.png


A-10 SEMIFINAL

Ideally Davidson wins this, then falls to VCU in the final on Sunday.


upload_2017-3-11_0-14-57.png

This is an SEC SEMI. I don't really see Alabama as a valid at large. But if they win, they only need to beat Vandy/Arkansas on Sunday.



upload_2017-3-11_0-17-27.png



This is a AAC Semi. Need SMU and Cincy to advance tomorrow to eliminate any change of a bubble buster

upload_2017-3-11_0-18-44.png

A-10 SEMI. We need VCU to win this tourney. It will not be easy. The A-10 by far is our biggest exposure right nwo.
 
upload_2017-3-11_0-20-20.png

AAC SEMI - It's time for the Huskies run to end.

upload_2017-3-11_0-21-27.png


CUSA FINAL - Middle Tennessee may get an at-large with a loss. So need them to win.
 
Yesterday went very well. Not quite 100% perfect because now we rely strongly on VCU, but still it went well.

Current Bracket Matrix (Estimate)


Xavier
Vanderbilt
Providence
Wake Forest
USC
Kansas State
Rhode Island
--- IN/OUT----
Syracuse
Illinois St

All of the above teams are done with the exception of Rhode Island who plays Davidson.

The teams below the line are very thin. That is outstanding news for us. If there are no bubble busters, all we need is the committee to think we are better than one of the 7 teams above the line that I have showed above.

So the issue now is Bubble Busters -

Middle Tennessee St
must win CUSA final over Marshall
VCU Must win A-10
Cincy / SMU must win AAC
Alabama one of SEC Final 4, cannot win.
Nevada would be nice if they win MWC final tomorrow, but not great chance at an at-large.
Great job this week. Hope it pays off. Thanks.
 
Thursday night was rough - Friday night brought us back.

Great job jn - as long as we avoid some bid stealers we're in decent/alive shape
 
Lunardi still has us in (updated today) as 12 seed play in vs USC.
 
I'd rather be a 12 seed than an 8 or 9. Even though we would have to win a play in game, the bracket could open up nicely for us. There isn't a 5 seed out there that we can't beat and then the second round would be against a 4 or 13 seed. Sign me up for that.
 
Yesterday went very well. Not quite 100% perfect because now we rely strongly on VCU, but still it went well.

Current Bracket Matrix (Estimate)


Xavier
Vanderbilt
Providence
Wake Forest
USC
Kansas State
Rhode Island
--- IN/OUT----
Syracuse
Illinois St

All of the above teams are done with the exception of Rhode Island who plays Davidson.

The teams below the line are very thin. That is outstanding news for us. If there are no bubble busters, all we need is the committee to think we are better than one of the 7 teams above the line that I have showed above.

So the issue now is Bubble Busters -

Middle Tennessee St
must win CUSA final over Marshall
VCU Must win A-10
Cincy / SMU must win AAC
Alabama one of SEC Final 4, cannot win.
Nevada would be nice if they win MWC final tomorrow, but not great chance at an at-large.

I admire your work.

I really wish you didn't have to do it.

I still, to this day, can't wrap my mind around how Joe Lunardi has this (I assume) lucrative role.
 
I admire your work.

I really wish you didn't have to do it.

I still, to this day, can't wrap my mind around how Joe Lunardi has this (I assume) lucrative role.

Because he thought of it first.
 
I wonder about these big east teams. I really feel like that conference is over rated, though I have no arguments to back it up.

It just feels like outside of nova and maybe butler everyone else just trades wins all year and ends up around .500. I feel like they are gaming the rpi somehow, but again I have nothing to back it up.

On a side note, I think all those mid majors who figured out how to game the rpi are really the reason it's getting phased out. I remember the mountain west had a nice trick back in 2013 where everyone in the league replaced their one or two lowest ranked opponents with d2 teams, which didn't count as rpi games. Then the whole conference got over seeded and almost all of them were beat by higher seeded teams the first weekend.
 
I've updated the computer rankings and average and Top 50 / Top 25 records and ranked them.

I have Syracuse as the last team in. However, I'm one of those crazy people who don't have USC in the Tourney so *shrug* we'll see what happens.

upload_2017-3-11_11-35-44.png
 
I've updated the computer rankings and average and Top 50 / Top 25 records and ranked them.

I have Syracuse as the last team in. However, I'm one of those crazy people who don't have USC in the Tourney so *shrug* we'll see what happens.

View attachment 91484

Interesting if those 4 end up being in the play-in games. The committee would definitely match us up with an old Big East foe. I want NO part of Seton Hall right now. Providence may be a better matchup for us. VCU is another tough draw. Although if we get USC in a play-in game, I'm not too confident in that one either... they have some shooters and unless they were just playing out of their minds vs. UCLA the other night, they look like a good team.
 
Great job this week. Hope it pays off. Thanks.

Now listen to people like Alsacs, Chris, ON, Pearl or any others who make arguments for Syracuse above those other teams. Are we actually above them? Not sure, but there is enough out there to think we could very well be ahead of one of those teams.
 

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