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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2099735, member: 1969"]
It's always apples and orange with these teams.   I would agree based on last year they would be out, but each year is not the same..

To me I am just assessing the landscape this year:

1) Even worse P5 teams than normal, and lack of A-10, AAC teams that are reasonable options to keep them out.  It will make the committee more open to giving the benefit of the doubt.  Force some different way of thinking, which leads to

2) What seems to be an open acceptance of power rankings this year, and an individual number they can rely on.  You couldn't use the RPI as a number to compare apples and oranges.   They knew the RPI created stupid results.   But if they are accepting BPI/KP/Sag, it means they like those numbers.   Those are systems that can be used to compare apples and oranges without having try to equalize schedules.   To me any mid major that has an average above 50 (or a spot or two over it) has a very good chance this year -- that would be Middle Tennessee St and Illinois.St.    True that under this approach St. Mary's and Valpo would be in last year, but this is a metric that is gaining steam and acceptance so that it might be much more accepted than the prior.

At some point you have to get away from top 50 wins when you compare these teams.    It just won't work.  Top 50 wins is a fair way to split the P5+1 and even the AAC, but not after that.   This year might be it... or it might not and this is an absolute whiff of a comment.
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