Bubble Watch - Mon, Feb 27 to Fri, March 3 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Mon, Feb 27 to Fri, March 3

jncuse

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Going to ramp this up from weekly to Mon-Thurs, and Fri-Sun. Mon-Thurs essentially captures a game for each team. Nothing too fancy, but did want to get the updated totals on the front page, as well as the weekly games.

As of Today the matrix has 50 new brackets. We are in on 42. Basically we held steady after losing to Louisville this weekend. Nobody pushed up from below to steal bids from us with a big victory this weekend.


Primary Bubble
8th Last In - Seton Hall
98%: Tues vs #86 RPI Georgetown (59% to win), Sat at #9 RPI Butler (19% to win)

7th Last In - USC 92% : Wed vs #150 RPI Washington St (89% to Win), Sat vs #206 RPI Washington (82% to Win)

6th Last In - Providence 46 (92%) - Tues vs RPI #231 Depaul (88%), Sat At RPI #124 St. John's (51%)

5th Last in - Marquette 43 (86%) - Wed vs #31 RPI Xavier (40%), Sat vs #27 RPI Creighton (51%)

4th Last in - Syracuse 42 (84%) - Sun vs #99 RPI Georgia Tech (80%)

3rd Last In - Illinois St 41 (82%) - MVC Tourney, Fri vs TBD

2nd Last in - Cal 78%: Thurs at #83 RPI Utah (42%), Sat at #12o RPI Colorado (53%)

Last In - Vanderbilt 27 (54%) - Tues at RPI #6 Kentucky (10%), Sat vs #5 RPI Florida (27%)

---- IN/OUT LINE -----

First Out - Rhode Island 22 (44%) - Wed at #184 RPI St. Joes (73%), Sat vs #114 RPI Davidson (78%)

Second Out - Wake Forest 12 (24%) -
Wed vs #4 RPI Louisville (28%), Sat at #44 Virginia Tech (43%)

Third Out - Illinois 9 (18%) -
Wed vs #40 RPI Michigan St (49%), Sat at #180 RPI Rutgers (61%)

Fourth Out - TCU 7 (14%) -
Wed vs #72 RPI Kansas St (61%), Sat at #160 RPI OKlahoma (46%)

Fifth Out - Kansas St 7 (14%) -
Wed at #66 RPI TCU (39%), Sat vs #105 RPI Texas Tech (58%)

Sixth Out - Houston 5 (10%) -
Thurs at #14 RPI Cincy (23%) , Sun vs #228 RPI East Carolina (94%)

Seventh Out - Georgia Tech 3 (6%) -
Sun at #80 RPI Syracuse (20%)

Eight Out = Georgia 3 (6%) -
Wed vs #94 RPI Auburn (75%), Sat at #32 Arkansas (36%)

Note RPI's are Projected
 
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This posting sort of slipped yesterday and people kept posting in the other one.

A few things to note
I omitted the Georgia Tech at Pitt game.
 
Primary bubble games tonight

6:30
Georgetown at 8th Last in Seton Hall
8:30
Depaul at 6th last in Providence
9:00
Last in Vanderbilt at Kentucky
9:00 Pitt at Seventh Out Georgia Tech

Seton Hall and Providence are in similar situations to us -- can they really sustain a 3 game losing streak to end the season? But one win should be all they need to feel reasonably good.

Vandy winning at Kentucky would be huge -- moves them from the line to near lock.

Georgia Tech probably needs a 3 game win streak to feel decently. And we all know that won't happen!
 
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Secondary Bubble Games - These are teams outside of the bubble lines but are not locks (have to win one to feel secure) or can still get an at-large with a run.

6:30 - Georgetown at Seton Hall - If Georgetown wins at Seton Hall, wins at home vs Villanova, and win 2 Big East games they probably get an at large. (Is the chance of doing this close to 0% -- Does Georgetown still suck?)

7:00 Indiana at Purdue - If Indiana wins at Purdue and Ohio St to end the season they will be in really good shape. But it mostly hinges on Purdue, otherwise they will need to make a long run in the B10 tourney.

9:00 Ohio St at Penn St - If Ohio St wins at Penn, wins vs Indiana, and wins 2 in the B10 tourney they are in the chat.

9:00 Pitt at Georgia Tech - Why won't this team go away? Because if they win tonight and win 3 games in the ACC tourney they are not out of it. The ACC tourney provides opportunities to teams like no other conference tournament. I don't think they will do it, but they still have a chance at an large.

These are all road games, so let hope these 4 teams just go away after tonight.
 
Another view of today's bubble games courtesy of Orange Nirvana focusing on his key drivers of selection.

(Average computer ranking, record vs. Top 50, record vs. Top 25)

Vanderbilt (51, 4-6, 1-4)
at #10 Kentucky
Seton Hall (54, 4-6, 1-5) vs. Georgetown (64, 3-9, 2-5)
Indiana (50, 4-8, 2-5)
at #14 Purdue
Georgia Tech (87, 4-7, 4-4) vs. Pittsburgh (62, 3-10, 3-7)
Rhode Island (47, 2-3, 1-3)
at Saint Joseph's
Providence (54, 6-7, 2-5) vs. Depaul
Ohio State (64, 4-9, 1-4) at Penn State
 
Bracket Matrix has 97 good brackets today in my view since there was no games of value on Monday. I don't see any of these teams as locks yet. For example Xavier is in on most, but if it loses another 3 games it is in trouble.

Xavier 95 (98%)
Seton Hall 95 (98%)
USC 93 (96%)
Providence 88 (91%)
Marquette 86 (89%)
Illinois St 81 (84%)
Syracuse 79 (81%)
California 74 (76%)
Vanderbilt 51 (53%)
---- IN/OUT ---
Rhode Island 48 (49%)
Wake Forest 22 (23%)
Kansas St 16 (16%)
Illinois 15 (15%)
Houston 12 (12%)
TCU 9 (9%)
Georgia Tech 5 (5%)
Georgia 4 (4%)

Teams at 97/97 which may or may not be able to absorb a 3 game losing streak to end the season - VCU, Dayton, Northwestern, Arkansas
 
upload_2017-2-28_20-26-1.png


Note - Records above are not updated for this result.

This is very likely to put Seton Hall in the tourney. But I promise I won't show Georgetown in the secondary bubble anymore.
 
At least Hall was kind of firmly in, as "8th last out". They are more important games than that tonight, but man GTown was so close.
 
Throwing it out there to the team.

#1) As of now what personal differences do you have in terms of in/out? (Compared to current matrix standings in post above)
#2) The last 5 years have had some WTH teams get in the tourney. Who is your WTH pick for this year from the above group?

WTH Teams in prior years - under 30% on Selection Sunday
2016 - Tulsa 1%
2015- UCLA 10%
2014 - NC St 2%
2013 - No Misses
2012 - Iona 6%
2011 - UAB 13%, VCU 15%
2010 - Florida 22%

As an aside, in the last 7 years, there have been a total of 11 differences between the matrix and the final selection (1.5 per year). So overall it's a fairly reliable indicator.
 
Georgetown making a mad dash at a sub 100 RPI season. Two more losses in a row and they will make it.
 
upload_2017-2-28_20-48-7.png


95% Done. I suppose if Indiana wins at Ohio St and makes the B10 Final it is back in the discussion, but this was really their main shot left.
 
At least Hall was kind of firmly in, as "8th last out". They are more important games than that tonight, but man GTown was so close.
Going into today, Seton Hall had a average ranking of 54.25 and a record of 3-6 vs. Top 50 (1-5 vs. Top 25). However, they also have victories against #51 California (neutral) and #52 Providence (home), which will help them.
 
Throwing it out there to the team.

#1) As of now what personal differences do you have in terms of in/out? (Compared to current matrix standings in post above)
#2) The last 5 years have had some WTH teams get in the tourney. Who is your WTH pick for this year from the above group?

WTH Teams in prior years - under 30% on Selection Sunday
2016 - Tulsa 1%
2015- UCLA 10%
2014 - NC St 2%
2013 - No Misses
2012 - Iona 6%
2011 - UAB 13%, VCU 15%
2010 - Florida 22%

As an aside, in the last 7 years, there have been a total of 11 differences between the matrix and the final selection (1.5 per year). So overall it's a fairly reliable indicator.
I feel like early on, Jerry Palm was going for the "shock factor" and trying to pinpoint an outrageous team

It is a good question though, however with the weakness of this year's bubble, I don't think there will be a team out of nowhere - I believe every team with a halfway decent resume has a legit case based on the field being weak. I think we could see something like Wake over USC
 
Going into today, Seton Hall had a average ranking of 54.25 and a record of 3-6 vs. Top 50 (1-5 vs. Top 25). However, they also have victories against #51 California (neutral) and #52 Providence (home), which will help them.
Hall is solid in a down year - hard to imagine any scenario where they're left out
 
Throwing it out there to the team.

#1) As of now what personal differences do you have in terms of in/out? (Compared to current matrix standings in post above)
#2) The last 5 years have had some WTH teams get in the tourney. Who is your WTH pick for this year from the above group?

WTH Teams in prior years - under 30% on Selection Sunday
2016 - Tulsa 1%
2015- UCLA 10%
2014 - NC St 2%
2013 - No Misses
2012 - Iona 6%
2011 - UAB 13%, VCU 15%
2010 - Florida 22%

As an aside, in the last 7 years, there have been a total of 11 differences between the matrix and the final selection (1.5 per year). So overall it's a fairly reliable indicator.

I wish he read the board, because the guy to ask is Jerry Palm. He has 2 of these WTH teams in today (TCU, Wake), with a 3rd at 49%:

NCAA Tournament Bracketology

From your summary above, he has :

Rhode Island 48 (49%)
Wake Forest 22 (23%)
TCU 9 (9%)


By the way, the combined sum of their "top-50" wins (RI 2, Wake 1, TCU 2) is still less than SU's 6 !!!
 
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upload_2017-2-28_21-36-13.png


Vanderbilt is serious.
 
Kentucky cuts it from 16 to 11,

Go Kentucky :vomit:
 
Secondary Bubble Games - These are teams outside of the bubble lines but are not locks (have to win one to feel secure) or can still get an at-large with a run.

6:30 - Georgetown at Seton Hall - If Georgetown wins at Seton Hall, wins at home vs Villanova, and win 2 Big East games they probably get an at large. (Is the chance of doing this close to 0% -- Does Georgetown still suck?)

7:00 Indiana at Purdue - If Indiana wins at Purdue and Ohio St to end the season they will be in really good shape. But it mostly hinges on Purdue, otherwise they will need to make a long run in the B10 tourney.

9:00 Ohio St at Penn St - If Ohio St wins at Penn, wins vs Indiana, and wins 2 in the B10 tourney they are in the chat.

9:00 Pitt at Georgia Tech - Why won't this team go away? Because if they win tonight and win 3 games in the ACC tourney they are not out of it. The ACC tourney provides opportunities to teams like no other conference tournament. I don't think they will do it, but they still have a chance at an large.

These are all road games, so let hope these 4 teams just go away after tonight.

And Pitt is killing it. Also Pitt already had a win over Virginia. They will do it again.

Pitt will have a better resume than Syracuse if they pull wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia on the road.
 
And Pitt is killing it. Also Pitt already had a win over Virginia. They will do it again.

Pitt will have a better resume than Syracuse if they pull wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia on the road.
Pitt needs those 2 wins and 3 in the ACCT to have a shot (they play on Tuesday). I also highly doubt Pitt will beat UVA twice.

PSU pulling away from OSU. Not that the Buckeyes had much of a chance, but it doesn't hurt.

PC, as expected, taking care of business against DePaul.

Nice little comeback for UK - hopefully they can take over in the 2nd half.

All in all, it will be an OK night if Pitt, UK and PSU win.
 

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