Bubble Watch - Power Conference Tourney's Start

[jncuse]

Lots of action this week, but very little may come from the P5 conferences who seem to have a fairly well defined line of who is in and out. The teams that are out need to do a lot it seems.

I will drop team's off the list as they are eliminated or become locks. Note I have Butler and South Carolina as locks which not everybody may agree with. For many of the teams that are in as of now, it is just about avoiding a bad loss to lock er up. I will make an edit to this list as well if St. Mary's loses tonight.

In terms of Syracuse "view" some of these "in teams" should be ahead of Syracuse today, but the margin is small and who knows what the committee will do. So they all merit watching for now.

NOTE - Updated for Gonzaga win, not sure where the hell to put St. Mary's. For simplicity in this thread, I will follow what the Matrix does tomorrow.

In but not locked. listed by Matrix Standings
St. Joes
USC
Oregon St
Cincinnati
Pitt
Vanderbilt
St. Bonaventure
Syracuse
VCU
Wichita St
UConn
St. Mary's

Last Teams Out (Per Matrix and Not that far out)
Tulsa
Monmouth
Michigan
Temple
Valparaiso
Florida

Bubble Busters (possibly)- Arkansas St and San Diego St

Many other teams with lots of work to do which I will highlight the games below.

 

[jncuse]

WEDNESDAY GAMES

Game of the Day - Not just for us. I could also imagine the committee could use the "loser" as the basis for comparison to Valparaiso and Monmouth, St. Mary's etc, as this would be the first P5 team under strong consideration with a finished resume

Stanford is a longshot. I have Stanford needing to beat Washington, Arizona and win the Pac 12 Semi to have a shot at an at-large.

Georgia Tech is a longshot. Needs to beat Clemson. Virginia, and perhaps win ACC Semi.

I think USC is very close to a lock. This game may not make a differnce. But I am sure they would feel much better not losing to UCLA.

 

[jncuse]

Both teams may still have a shot as an at large. Florida St may only need to beat Virginia Tech and Virginia. Virginia tech would need to Florida St, Virginia, and win the ACC Semi to get in the discussion as an at-large.

This is another big game. I am not as high on Oregon St as many are on the matrix. This is a bad loss they don't want to have.

 

[jncuse]

Gonzaga wins.

I don't know if the committee has ever had a more difficult job than they do this year -- how do you dissect teams with mediocore resumes from power conferences vs teams like Monmouth, St. Mary's and Valpo. Then add in all the teams on the bubble from good but not power conference like the A-10 and the AAC.

P5 vs A10+AAC vs Mid-Majors

I would not want to have their job.

 

[jncuse]

Bubble burst on longshot Stanford -- stupid ass resume.

Georgia Tech who is maybe one big win tomorrow from seriously entering the discussion comes back from a double digit deficit to tie Clemson. Off to OT. That final play run by Clemson was just terrible.

 

[Chris02M]

i think GT will need to beat virginia and miami to be an large team

 

[kirbivore]

Clemson choked away an 18 point lead with 8:00 to go and lost in OT.

 

[jncuse]

i think GT will need to beat virginia and miami to be an large team

I generally agree -- I would be surprised if beating Virginia would be enough (but don;t want to leave it up to the committee at that point). But they would be at a play in game by Friday. Just want to nip these in the bud early.

 

[jncuse]

Lunardi so smug on how Syracuse will fall out anytime. I think it could last for a while. ITtprobably will happen, but it could take until Saturday.

Is Lunardi claiming that if Oregon St wins tonight against a 5-13 Pac 12 team that will make them jump Syracuse and they will not fall back behind us with a loss to Cal. He has already established that a loss dropped Cuse 3 spots on his scurve today . So is he going to be inconsistent to not bring Syracuse back in..

Will he not drop St. Bonaventure or VCU behind us if they have a bad loss?

And what is he going to do when fake tourney team Temple loses, and he has to drop them, and everybody automatically rises a line.

End of rant. It's going to likely happen, but I hope these smug have to wait a few days... or Lunardi has to play games to not bring us back up.

 

[jncuse]

I thought USC was fairly safe before tonight but maybe not a lock. They avoided a loss to a non tourney team and are now a lock.