Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

[jncuse]

Could be a tough night for us... let's home one of these 2 games turn.

Providence is on the fringes of the bubble, but they win a few quality games like this one, and they will move into the discussion.

Top 25 road win -- that would be big for Arkansas

 

[orangenirvana]

Are we rooting for Georgia Tech or Miami?

 

[jdubs30]

You're right - PC has a lot of work to do - but this would be a start. South Carolina down by 1 with 2 minutes left so hoefpully they'll put that out.

I also think we're rooting for Fordham, Creighton and Miami

 

[jdubs30]

Are we rooting for Georgia Tech or Miami?

Miami. 100%.

 

[orangenirvana]

Please tell me someone else is watching the Arkansas game. Kid just chucked up a hilarious shot off the glass to beat the shot clock. Leg kick reminiscent of Paul Harris.

 

[orangenirvana]

Big win for Arkansas but they still have some work to do. Going into today their Sagarin/KenPom/BPI/RPI was 54/57/55/48. This win makes them 2-4 against the Top 50.

 

[jdubs30]

Big win for Arkansas but they still have some work to do. Going into today their Sagarin/KenPom/BPI/RPI was 54/57/55/48. This win makes them 2-4 against the Top 50.

Yep. Would have been nice to have Arkansas lose - but them winning tonight doesn't really "knock us out" of the field - I think Arkansas is probably in most brackets that had us in.

 

[jncuse]

This might end the at large chances of Rhode Island. Loss to a sub 200 RPI team at home,

They were on 9 of 36 bracket's today. They only have 1 good game left (at home vs VCU). I think they created to big a hole to make up.

 

[jncuse]

Some good results coming now.

Kansas State was the 12th last team in before this week, so they were one of my 23 teams to watch. They slide back a little closer to the bubble after losing at home.

So the cumulative record of the teams to watch this week is 5-6 (Monday-Friday).

 

[jncuse]

Tight down the stretch,

Would be nice to see Illinois St share the same fate as Rhode Island.

Minnesota trying to lay the death blow.

 

[orangenirvana]

Big win for Seton Hall. Their first win over a Top 25 team.

 

[jncuse]

Big win for the Hall. they were one of last in today (20 of 36 brackets) --

Not sure if this was better or not -- I can see sides of both -- in the end the team on the outside lost.

Illinois St is one of those hard resumes to compare. Any loss they have moving forward is a bad loss. They just pulled his out.

 

[sugrad68]

Let's be honest. This year's SU team does not deserve to be in the tournament in a "normal" year. Terrible losses. Only 2 real high quality wins (Virginia and FSU). Two road victories by the skin of our teeth (NC State and Clemson). A close loss to a quality team (Louisville). And wins and losses to other mediocre teams. The only thing keeping us in the discussion for making the final 68 is teams on the bubble, like us, keep losing, like us.

 

[jncuse]

Oklahoma St is starting to get quite secure. There average seed is 1.4 better than TCU on the matrix, so this was probably the better result, as TCU starts to slide, but most will still have them in. Maybe Dixon will choke in February this time rather than March.

Minnesota stole this from Indiana. Offensive rebound and score with 3 seconds left in the game to take the look. Indiana is in really bad shape right now.

So we have the teams up to 9-9 this week. Basically playing as expected.

 

[jncuse]

The 11 teams that were "first out" at the beginning of this week are now a combined 3-5 since Monday.

 

[pearl31]

Big East was bad for us tonight...
Also, I watched most of that SC-Ark game, and watched some of SC's loss at home last week to 'bama - man S.Carolina is a poor offensive team - they've racked up wins in a crappy conference but they're just really not very good

 

[MSOrange]

This could loom large in tonight's Michigan- Wisconsin game. Bronson Koenig out for Wisconsin with a leg strain

Wisconsin G Koenig (leg strain) out vs. Michigan

 

[jdubs30]

This could loom large in tonight's Michigan- Wisconsin game. Bronson Koenig out for Wisconsin with a leg strain

Wisconsin G Koenig (leg strain) out vs. Michigan

Michigan with a nice 5 days ...

 

[orangenirvana]

Michigan just banked in a three with 13:00 to go. Which of course means they will win.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Trice on Wisconsin is pulling a Starks Game 7 right now

 

[pearl31]

wow Mich does have a tough closing schedule though:

 

[bpo57]

Right now the list seems quite short compared to prior years. Their is no Monmouth, Valparaiso, or even a San Diego St this year. And even they didn't get in last year, but don't always expect consistency. I included the KP number as I think they look at analytics to try to compare apples and oranges. All the teams below have top 50 RPI's, but really empty resumes.

Illinois St (45) - Wichita St and Illinois St are both tied in the MVC. I think Wichita St is probably a lock based on analytics so hopefully they take care of business in the MVC, and hope that Illinois St does not steal a bid.

Middle Tennesse (52) - Beat UNC Wilmington. But had a few bad losses

UNC Wilmington (56) - Decent RPI but not much else. Racked up a few bad losses recently.

Nevada (73) - This seems like it might be a stretch however, as the MWC is not that strong. Also not fond of the KP rating,

I don't include teams like Akron and Monmouth with good RPI's, but KP rankings around #100. They also lack marquee victories.

Illinois St probably seems the biggest threat above (although they are in more of a potential 2 team league). I am not particularly fond of any of the other 3 teams above, but maybe Middle Tennessee has the greatest shot.

I watched the first half of Middle Tennessee's game against WKY tonight. Admittedly they play in a weak conference but they look like a legit NCAA tournament team to me. Very athletic and they defend really well. Some unsuspecting P5 team may run into a buzzsaw against them in mid-March. Just like last year.

 

[jncuse]

Middle Tennessee has a KP of 45 -- I would have no problem giving them the benefit or the doubt over a P5 team... not named Syracuse.

I think they have a decent shot at an at large if they only have one more loss. But they are one of the few real mid-majors that I see having a shot.

 

[20Plus]

[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2074973, member:

THIS CAN SERVE AS YOUR BUBBLE CALENDAR FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS

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View attachment 89347

Based on the above probabilities the 23 teams above will go 10-10 in games before Friday. So a good result for us would be 10 wins or less.[/QUOTE]
On the out level line seven of the nine teams that played lost!

However on the in-line we only saw one out of nine teams that we wanted to lose lose excluding SU'scgame

 

[jncuse]

Michigan Wins over Wisconsin. They were on 42/45 before tonight, so they are in good shape.
Utah loses to Oregon.

Every time on my "bubble" at the beginning of the weak has played. They finished 10-10.

The teams that were above the bubble line went 7-4, 7-3 excluding Syracuse. However, the teams below the line went 3-6. So the divide is starting to form, and the bubble is weakening.