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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2061371, member: 1969"] I came up with something that was a little more "Projected" this week. I used RPIForecast to get projected resumes (this relies on Sagarin to project remaining results) of all the current teams on the bubble up to conference tournament. I defined teams on the bubble as those with over 10% and under 90% of the votes on the Matrix. RPIForecast currently projects us at 17-14 (9-9 ACC), but for the sake of comparison I calculated our projected resume if we were 10-8 in the ACC, and 11-7 in the ACC. The five victories, based on current probabilities would be - H GTech, A GTech, H Duke, A Pitt, A Clemson. (Duke is in the middle because we do have a 73% chance of winning 1 of 3 games at home against the powerhouses) [B]The purpose of doing this was very simple. If we went 10-8 or 11-7 in the ACC, where would our resume measure up against the projected resumes of the current bubble. There will be some teams moving up and down, but I think they would generally balance.[/B] Teams that are currently in [ATTACH=full]88574[/ATTACH] Teams that are currently out (and Syracuse projected resumes) [ATTACH=full]88575[/ATTACH] A few points: [LIST] [*]Many of the teams that are currently above the line, lack quality on their resume (lack of top 100 wins) [*]Not many teams are projected to have 5 top 50 wins, or 10 top 100 wins entering the tournament (assuming we are 11-7) Our top 100 record really dominates the rest of the teams (if we were to get 11 ACC wins) [*]Our road record is still the worse of the bunch [*]We have more bad losses than everybody else. In fact most teams are projected to have 1... we have 3, including the worse loss of the bunch, [/LIST] I defined quality wins as follows, as these are the type of things that are generally valued beyond the top 50 [LIST] [*]Top 50 wins (all) [*]51-100 road wins [*]Any home wins against a sub 50 RPI team that is on the bubble or in the tournament. [/LIST] So would we be in at 11-7 or 10-8? It depends on whether they will ignore the bad losses. Because in terms of quality we are probably top 5 of the bunch (projected). Teams that are currently in like TCU, Cal, Kansas St, Wichita St, and Tennessee -- our projected resume could be viewed better. So I am still fairly confident at 11-7 entering the ACC tournament. 10-8 is not out of that picture either, but I would say unlikely. Note - I had to play with a few columns to make things balance for a few teams. [/QUOTE]

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