Bubble Watch - Week of February 4

[jncuse]

I came up with something that was a little more "Projected" this week. I used RPIForecast to get projected resumes (this relies on Sagarin to project remaining results) of all the current teams on the bubble up to conference tournament. I defined teams on the bubble as those with over 10% and under 90% of the votes on the Matrix.

RPIForecast currently projects us at 17-14 (9-9 ACC), but for the sake of comparison I calculated our projected resume if we were 10-8 in the ACC, and 11-7 in the ACC. The five victories, based on current probabilities would be - H GTech, A GTech, H Duke, A Pitt, A Clemson. (Duke is in the middle because we do have a 73% chance of winning 1 of 3 games at home against the powerhouses)

The purpose of doing this was very simple. If we went 10-8 or 11-7 in the ACC, where would our resume measure up against the projected resumes of the current bubble. There will be some teams moving up and down, but I think they would generally balance.


Teams that are currently in

Teams that are currently out (and Syracuse projected resumes)

A few points:

• Many of the teams that are currently above the line, lack quality on their resume (lack of top 100 wins)
• Not many teams are projected to have 5 top 50 wins, or 10 top 100 wins entering the tournament (assuming we are 11-7) Our top 100 record really dominates the rest of the teams (if we were to get 11 ACC wins)
• Our road record is still the worse of the bunch
• We have more bad losses than everybody else. In fact most teams are projected to have 1... we have 3, including the worse loss of the bunch,

I defined quality wins as follows, as these are the type of things that are generally valued beyond the top 50

• Top 50 wins (all)
• 51-100 road wins
• Any home wins against a sub 50 RPI team that is on the bubble or in the tournament.

So would we be in at 11-7 or 10-8? It depends on whether they will ignore the bad losses. Because in terms of quality we are probably top 5 of the bunch (projected).

Teams that are currently in like TCU, Cal, Kansas St, Wichita St, and Tennessee -- our projected resume could be viewed better. So I am still fairly confident at 11-7 entering the ACC tournament. 10-8 is not out of that picture either, but I would say unlikely.

Note - I had to play with a few columns to make things balance for a few teams.

 

[jncuse]

Games to watch on Saturday.

There are many bubble teams that play top 25 teams on the road on Saturday. While these would all be huge if they happen, they are all quite unlikely given they would be road upsets. The only bubble team with a major win opportunity at home is Syracuse.

There are also a bunch of games between bubble teams such as Georgetown-Seton Hall, Georgia Tech - Wake, but there are so many moving parts that there is no preferred winner right now.

This might be the most interesting game tomorrow:

Wichita St has a nice record, will end up with a top 50 RPI, and have a KP rating around 20; But they have yet to win a top 100 game. This would be their first, and would make them 1-4 against top 100. Everything else remaining on their schedule is garbage.

Wichita St can't possibly get an at large with zero top 100 wins right? This game could knock out their at large chances.

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

Fantastic work and write up, thanks

 

[orange79]

Games to watch on Saturday.

There are many bubble teams that play top 25 teams on the road on Saturday. While these would all be huge if they happen, they are all quite unlikely given they would be road upsets. The only bubble team with a major win opportunity at home is Syracuse.

There are also a bunch of games between bubble teams such as Georgetown-Seton Hall, Georgia Tech - Wake, but there are so many moving parts that there is no preferred winner right now.

This might be the most interesting game tomorrow:

View attachment 88577

Wichita St has a nice record, will end up with a top 50 RPI, and have a KP rating around 20; But they have yet to win a top 100 game. This would be their first, and would make them 1-4 against top 100. Everything else remaining on their schedule is garbage.

Wichita St can't possibly get an at large with zero top 100 wins right? This game could knock out their at large chances.

Personally, not many things would make me happier.

 

[jncuse]

 

[jncuse]

A larger sample size of relevant brackets now on the matrix -- (62 instead of 35). The same in/out as my last post. But it should be noted that due to old date the matrix shows Miami & Georgia Tech in, when in fact they have been replaced by Cal and Tennessee.

This will of course change quite a bit after today (especially for us). We were 6% before the game. It will be interesting to see what it will be after this game.

Based on the 62, they would stand as

 

[jncuse]

This is the type of win that could be the difference maker for Seton Hall. Beating a fellow bubble team on the road is pretty significant. Let's hope we can do the same against Clemson. This was a big loss for Georgetown. They have some really, really good wins, but at some point you can't keep losing.

Seton Hall will probably be in "as of now" on the matrix at the end of this weekend.

 

[jncuse]

Game to follow in the second half. This would be the biggest win of the day (not that ours is anything too shabby)

 

[skurey]

How is 4-6 in the Big East in the tournament?

 

[longislandcuse]

View attachment 88646

Game to follow in the second half. This would be the biggest win of the day (not that ours is anything too shabby)

Friggin Baylor. Why does everyone get tricked into thinking they are good every year.

 

[jncuse]

Crazy day in the Big 12, that hurts us a bit. Top 10, much less top 25 road wins, I would think are the most valuable chip you can have in your resume.

Iowa St was a 10 seed on the bracket matrix entering today.

It's so early, there will be many other parts that move our way. We just need to take care of business.

 

[jncuse]

How is 4-6 in the Big East in the tournament?

It's an "as of now" picture, so you can't get too focused on a conference schedule that is less than half your total games.

Seton Hall does not have a bad loss, and has now beat South Carolina, Cal, and Georgetown on road/neutral courts. They can easily fall back out, but they are probably just on the right side right now.

While we have more high end quality, we still have more crap as well.

 

[jncuse]

Friggin Baylor. Why does everyone get tricked into thinking they are good every year.

They definetely earned their ranking based on the quality of their wins, but it seems they are now remembering who they are.

 

[jncuse]

Tennessee and Utah lost on the road to OK non tourney teams in Miss St and Stanford today. Those are always tricky games. These types of games are never easy. Crucial week for us next week -- we have to make sure we don't go 0-2.

For example, Georgia Tech had lots of momentum coming into this week, and they lost most of it by losing both road games at Clemson and Wake.

While we were the big winner in the ACC this week, the big loser in the ACC this week without a doubt was NC St. Two losses against bubble level teams at home. Huge blown opportunity for them.

The ACC seems to be getting a little structure right now. 3 members seem to have very little change of getting in at this point - BC, Pitt and NC St.

The analytics suggest Georgia Tech really belongs with the other 3, but let's see what they do in their big home games.

 

[jncuse]

Crazy day in the Big 12. 4 top 10 teams lost to bubble teams today. including 3 at home. If you lost at home like Georgetown did, it's a really bad day for you... you lost quite a bit of ground.

 

[jncuse]

St. Mary's is not really a bubble team this year. And I know it's only San Diego. But that score -- yikes.

 

[jncuse]

Wichita St taking care of business. This will be their only top 50 (or top 100 win) of the season. They have no bad losses, and their KP is really good. I was hoping they would lose tonight.

Illinois St will only have 2 top 100 wins for that matter. They do have a fairly good KP at 38. I guess at this point we would prefer Wichita St to go the distance in the MVC.

 

[AZcuse77]

A larger sample size of relevant brackets now on the matrix -- (62 instead of 35). The same in/out as my last post. But it should be noted that due to old date the matrix shows Miami & Georgia Tech in, when in fact they have been replaced by Cal and Tennessee.

This will of course change quite a bit after today (especially for us). We were 6% before the game. It will be interesting to see what it will be after this game.

Based on the 62, they would stand as

View attachment 88638

View attachment 88640

I'm so glad the RPI is going away... its such an awful formula and I hope they don't give it much credence this year. If it wasn't going away it should really change how we schedule and I think it's good to play local teams like Colgate and Cornell each year.

Syracuse is probably about 2% to lose to >150 RPI teams (even "bad" Cuse) yet we get punished twice as much when we play #297 Colgate even though both games are a lock. We played #183 #255 #284 #193 not even counting BC twice at #195.

This is why we are 84 in the RPI despite being 41 and 51 (before today) in the metrics that actually have any value. I would hate to see us drop a school like Colgate or Cornell just to raise our RPI like some teams have done.

 

[jncuse]

Here is a very positive result for any bubble team tonight. Before tonight UTEP was projected to have an RPI of 296... their KP is 251. This is a terrible loss for Middle Tennessee

Before this game, Middle Tennessee was projected to end up with a #34 RPI, only 1 top 50 win, but a solid 4-2 vs top 100. They also had a KP of 52, which i believe the committee does use a little bit more for teams from mid tier conferences which don't have comparable games.

This is a very bad loss for them that may have cost their chance to be a bid stealer.

 

[jdubs30]

Crazy day in the Big 12, that hurts us a bit. Top 10, much less top 25 road wins, I would think are the most valuable chip you can have in your resume.

Iowa St was a 10 seed on the bracket matrix entering today.

It's so early, there will be many other parts that move our way. We just need to take care of business.

View attachment 88647

If Iowa State was a 10 seed - this loss just cements them in - it's not a "new" team entering the field

 

[orange79]

As of 12:30 this morning, bracketologist extraordinaire Jerry Palm has us as the last team in:

Then, if seeds hold and we make a run: Florida->Cinci->UNC->Nova

 

[longislandcuse]

As of 12:30 this morning, bracketologist extraordinaire Jerry Palm has us as one of the last 4 in

View attachment 88665

Then, if seeds hold and we make a run: Florida->Cinci->UNC->Nova

UNC is the team I'd like to see as far away from us in the tourney as possible.

 

[upperdeck]

Michigan is the team that is really on the bubble.. 1 good win. good shot at 6 more losses. I think that sweeping clem/gt/pitt isnt enough.. we need to win one of the UL/Duke games and go 2-2 in the other games. that would give us 3+ wins against top four seeds

 

[MSOrange]

As of 12:30 this morning, bracketologist extraordinaire Jerry Palm has us as the last team in:

View attachment 88665

Then, if seeds hold and we make a run: Florida->Cinci->UNC->Nova

I was just going to post this. Can't sleep on you!

 

[NKR1978]

Up to 72 in RPI and 48 on KP.