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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 3314852, member: 1969"] I don't agree, and I will provide backup. Taking KP efficiency margin/100 of what teams - minus the other. Multiplied by tempo Adding 3.5 point home margin where applicable. I estimated the KP Spreads tonight and compared to actual: I picked the first 5 games today based on Bet 365 game list (did not pick and choose) San Diego St vs Air Force - Predicted 18.5 (Actual 17.0) Boise St vs UNLV - Predicted 2.5 (Actual 1.0) Michigan vs Nebraska - Predicted 17.0 (Actual 17.0) UConn vs Houston - Predicted 2.0 (Actual 2.0) Illinois vs Ohio St - Predicted 7.0 (Actual 5.5) As noted the KP ranking is almost always really close to actual. [/QUOTE]