Can it at least be better? |

Can it at least be better?


Bored Historian
Aug 26, 2011
We all know that North Carolina beat us 67-103 when we played them before. But I wanted to look at the bigger picture: what are the comparative scores vs. common opponents. Do they suggest we have no chance in this game?

Syracuse lost to Tennessee 56-73 on a neutral court. North Carolina beat them 100-92 at home = +25 for North Carolina
Syracuse lost at Virginia 62-84. North Carolina will play there 2/24.
Syracuse beat Pittsburgh 81-73 here and 69-58 there. North Carolina beat Pitt 70-57 on the road. Head to head in the same place, the Tar Heels are +2
Syracuse lost 66-86 at Duke North Carolina beat them 93-84 at home, (they will play at Duke 3/9). That’s +29 for the Heels.
Syracuse beat Boston College here 69-59 but lost to them 75-80 there. UNC won 76-66 there, a +15 advantage.
Syracuse beat U of Miami 72-69 here on Copeland’s shot. North Carolina just beat them on the road 75-72, meaning the teams have broken even, although the venue favored us.
Syracuse lost 69-85 to Florida State here. North Carolina beat them 78-70 there and 75-68 at home, a 23 point advantage in the home games.
Syracuse beat North Carolina State 77-65 at home. UNC won 67-54 at NC State. That +1 point for them but, again, we had the favorable venue.
Syracuse lost 70-99 at Wake Forest. North Carolina beat them 85-64 at home, a +50 advantage that the differences in venues could hardly overcome.
Syracuse beat Louisville 94-92 at home. North Carolina beat them 86-70, also at home, a +14 point advantage.
Syracuse lost to Clemson 68-77 at home. The Tar Heels lost to them 76-80 at home, a +5 point advantage for them.

That’s 10 comparisons plus out game with North Carolina. One comparison comes out even and the Tar Heels win the other ten. Here’s the ranking:
Even, +1, +2, +5, +14, +15, +23, +25, +29, +36, +50
My conclusions are: Yes, it can get worse but it’s more likely to be better and there is a chance this could actually be a close game.
1 in 11 chance we go into overtime, no chance we win unless lightning strikes.

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