Can we find a way to win 3 out of next 5?

[Cusefan0307]

At Louisville is far from an automatic loss this year. Same with Miami.

 

[RF2044]

The game that will keep SU out of the tourney if they miss it will be the ND loss. SU had absolutely no business losing that game, NONE. The Wake game they hit shots down the stretch and while we should have won it we didn't completely blow it like we did that ND game. That and the Bonnies game will haunt this team.

ND and FSU are two games that got away, that we needed to win.

We can overcome those losses, but both were there for the taking and are now missed opportunities.

 

[JeremyCuse]

ND and FSU are two games that got away, that we needed to win.

We can overcome those losses, but both were there for the taking and are now missed opportunities.

We set ourselves up with a chance to win vs FSU but to be honest we didn't play that great. That 7 foot stiff they had we let him go off like Tim Duncan just dunking the ball on a least 4-5 baskets in the second half. Brisette's barely drawing ire three to win it in the first OT makes that a tough loss but we played like crap for large stretches of that game. ND and to a lesser extent Wake we led for most of the game and couldn't seal the deal.

 

[Eric15]

Tools are out there to stop us from locking into absolutes.

Haha when I first read this I thought you were referring to tools as like people being tools.

 

[SUFan44]

Re: Depth -- it is CRAZY to think that we are down to Sidibe [who is far from 100%] and HW at this point, if Moyer can't go. Yikes.

HW almost has to get minutes, if for no other reason than to slide Battle to 3, so that they can steal some downtime for Dolezaj / Brissett. We're really scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of depth, for the second straight year.

It's troubling but hopefully there's a plan moving forward for next year, in terms of filling out the roster with guys that can develop at the rate of a Kris Joseph or a Rick Jackson or Scoop Jardine.

Those four-year guys are so, so important to a program like ours (see Villanova). One-and-done guys like Bazley are great, and two-and-dones like Battle are good too. But the four-year guys are the glue to the roster and help with roster continuity.

 

[orangecuse]

At Louisville is far from an automatic loss this year. Same with Miami.

Yeah, I'd place it in the semi-automatic range.

 

[RF2044]

It's troubling but hopefully there's a plan moving forward for next year, in terms of filling out the roster with guys that can develop at the rate of a Kris Joseph or a Rick Jackson or Scoop Jardine.

Those four-year guys are so, so important to a program like ours (see Villanova). One-and-done guys like Bazley are great, and two-and-dones like Battle are good too. But the four-year guys are the glue to the roster and help with roster continuity.

Couldn't agree more. That used to be our recruiting process -- lots of high potential guys like Kris, Rick, CJ Fair, Triche, etc. surrounded by one or two guys who are higher rated recruits, like Dion or MCW.

I also believe that having more of those guys on the roster helps to mitigate the ebbs and flows of having players leave early. I.E., having a guy like Moyer who projects as a high quality four-year player will help offset the likely early departures of players like Bazley / Brissett down the road. Instead of scrambling to replace them, we'll have an ascending junior with starting PT under his belt in Moyer to slide into the lineup and replace them.

I'm really hoping we use a fourth scholarship in the class of 2018. I'm tired of having injuries derail our depth. We are down to 5 guys, and two guys who barely get off the bench. It isn't sustainable.

 

[RF2044]

We set ourselves up with a chance to win vs FSU but to be honest we didn't play that great. That 7 foot stiff they had we let him go off like Tim Duncan just dunking the ball on a least 4-5 baskets in the second half. Brisette's barely drawing ire three to win it in the first OT makes that a tough loss but we played like crap for large stretches of that game. ND and to a lesser extent Wake we led for most of the game and couldn't seal the deal.

I think you're selling our chances short. We did play like crap, but we had numerous chances to close. And the refs played equalizer in the first OT, which undermined us. But it would have been a road win over a ranked team -- missed opportunity.

 

[billsin01]

The game that will keep SU out of the tourney if they miss it will be the ND loss. SU had absolutely no business losing that game, NONE. The Wake game they hit shots down the stretch and while we should have won it we didn't completely blow it like we did that ND game. That and the Bonnies game will haunt this team.

Yeah, ND is actually the best example. Just so tough to lose games that closely and that frequently by mid-season.

 

[blust2i3d4]

At Louisville is far from an automatic loss this year. Same with Miami.

I agree. Louisville's new coach is not very good. He is just lucky so far. I expect Louisville to collapse in the second half of ACC games.

 

[Fat tire 13]

It's way too early to lock into an absolute, IMO. And over the years has always tended to overshoot what we needed to do at this point of the season.

In the last 3 years there was only one time when the board generally underestimate what needed to be done. And that is after we beat Duke late last year. But it was a good NCAA tourney week for the bubble and that hurt us.

How much does the ACC Tourney factor into the calculation, if at all? Like if we go 8-10, and then rip off two wins in the ACC Tourney, it makes you feel much better about making the cut. Not that I have any proof, but feel like our first game flameouts in the ACC tourney might matter more than they should...

 

[shandeezy7]

At Louisville is far from an automatic loss this year. Same with Miami.

Since the start of the 2015-16 season, Miami has lost 4 home games. In that same span, we have only won 5 road games. I don't think it's an automatic loss, but I'd say it's pretty close.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Since the start of the 2015-16 season, Miami has lost 4 home games. In that same span, we have only won 5 road games. I don't think it's an automatic loss, but I'd say it's pretty close.

KenPom has us at a 32 percent chance to win at Miami and 35 percent chance to win at Louisville. That’s not anywhere close to being an automatic loss. I don’t look at past seasons as they have no effect on current data. Our current team is stronger than last year and their current teams are weaker.

 

[SoBeCuse]

There’s only so much we can do. Like it or not, the BC game was pretty much all ISO. They were bad defensively and for whatever reason didn’t get up on our guards. When they did send a hedge defender Frank didn’t get around him or split it and just stopped. They were probably too worried about rebounding and interior protection possibly against Chukwu. I thought they were more feisty than that defensively from their guards in other games against them. Maybe not.

Hopefully we will see more sets that evolved possibly from the past week of practice. They seriously were taking so many jumpers either early or late in the shot clock. Off of zero or one pass. They just happened to go in which was rare, albeit certainly very nice to see. Maybe they worked a lot on shooting and Boeheim just scrapped any idea of sets and said just to let em rip since in practice they were making shots. Still, The ISO won’t work against UL, Wake, Miami, GT, etc., IMO. Pitt we can play that way and probably win again.

 

[RF2044]

How much does the ACC Tourney factor into the calculation, if at all? Like if we go 8-10, and then rip off two wins in the ACC Tourney, it makes you feel much better about making the cut. Not that I have any proof, but feel like our first game flameouts in the ACC tourney might matter more than they should...

The ACC tournament is huge, especially for a bubble team, because it enables you to improve your W/L record and also pad your resume with quality wins. And of course, if you win the whole thing, you are an automatic qualifier.

But the reverse is clearly true, as well. If you have a marginal NCAA "resume," then a first round flameout doesn't help your cause, especially when other teams that are on the bubble might be improving THEIR profile in conference tournament play.

It is DEFINITELY true that we could go 7-11 in conference, then rip off 3 wins, beat some good teams, and then overcome the poor conference record. But I'd prefer to have a solid conference showing, and THEN win a game [or two] in the ACC tournament to erase all doubt.

 

[Fat tire 13]

The ACC tournament is huge, especially for a bubble team, because it enables you to improve your W/L record and also pad your resume with quality wins. And of course, if you win the whole thing, you are an automatic qualifier.

But the reverse is clearly true, as well. If you have a marginal NCAA "resume," then a first round flameout doesn't help your cause, especially when other teams that are on the bubble might be improving THEIR profile in conference tournament play.

It is DEFINITELY true that we could go 7-11 in conference, then rip off 3 wins, beat some good teams, and then overcome the poor conference record. But I'd prefer to have a solid conference showing, and THEN win a game [or two] in the ACC tournament to erase all doubt.

Yeah agreed. The question was geared more to the stats that Jncuse posted. I know he is the guru for such matters.

 

[cuseinseattle]

I agree. Louisville's new coach is not very good. He is just lucky so far. I expect Louisville to collapse in the second half of ACC games.

I'm not sure I would say he isn't a good coach. He is 32 years old and it's his first job and he is in an impossible situation in my opinion.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We are 3-4 point underdogs if we went to Louisville today which suggests the teams are about even. Miami is slightly better than us. We will be about 5 point dogs. The schedule is very manageable.

 

[jncuse]

Instead of "locking into absolutes," it is looking at our preseason record, and then trying to ascertain what we will need to do in the conference portion of the schedule to place our heads above water on selection sunday. OF COURSE who you beat matters, and where. I just don't think 8 wins and crossing our fingers is going to get it done.

Last year, we didn't get selected because we performed worse in the nonconferenceportion of the schedule than just about any other year under JB -- so despite having a respectable conference record with several wins over highly rated teams [Duke, UVa, and FSU were all top 10 teams when we beat them], we couldn't overcome the poor start or the lack of quality road wins. And despite the horrific non-conference performance, we still came within an eyelash of making the tournament.

This year's team had a decent nonconference performance. Pointing to 9 wins is just projecting what it will take to get us on the proper side of the line of demarcation. If you want to say that the number is 8 vs. 9, go for it. Although I happen to disagree, it really isn't worth splitting hairs over via statistical analysis, IMO -- we need to just keep winning. And when we were 1-4 in conference play a week ago, getting to 9 conference wins didn't seem likely. Would I prefer to win more, sure. But let's focus on what's going to get into the NCAA tournament first, and then worry about seeding second.

If we only win 8, I sure as heck won't feel comfortable watching the selection show.

I agree that 9 seems to be the highly safe number (never want to say for sure this year with a change in parameters possibly). But it just seemed you drew the line as "only if we get 9" I misinterpreted your intent and for that I apologize. I am in no means saying 8-10 is a safe number, but it's certainly good enough to put us in the heart of the bubble. We will know more as the season goes along if it's a better number then that,

 

[jncuse]

The ACC tournament is huge, especially for a bubble team, because it enables you to improve your W/L record and also pad your resume with quality wins. And of course, if you win the whole thing, you are an automatic qualifier.

But the reverse is clearly true, as well. If you have a marginal NCAA "resume," then a first round flameout doesn't help your cause, especially when other teams that are on the bubble might be improving THEIR profile in conference tournament play.

It is DEFINITELY true that we could go 7-11 in conference, then rip off 3 wins, beat some good teams, and then overcome the poor conference record. But I'd prefer to have a solid conference showing, and THEN win a game [or two] in the ACC tournament to erase all doubt.

I will just add 2 points to the above I agree with. If you are in the heart of the bubble the margins are small, and a quality win usually will allow you to jump a few teams.

It is also highly dependent on what goes on around you. In 2016, we blew it in the ACC tourney, but the bubble that week performed very poorlu. Last year we lost, were probably still in after we lost, but then the bubble teams had a good tourney week and a few passed us.

I will also say that sometimes the first ACC game could be meaningless. If it's not a quality win, it is not going to help your resume. You risk a loss, and also getting tired for that first quality win chance - I call them nuisance games. Pitt and Miami were certainly not that, but some year you could get 2-16 Pitt team or a 5-13 team in your first game. And that game does nothing for you,

 

[pearl31]

Instead of "locking into absolutes," it is looking at our preseason record, and then trying to ascertain what we will need to do in the conference portion of the schedule to place our heads above water on selection sunday. OF COURSE who you beat matters, and where. I just don't think 8 wins and crossing our fingers is going to get it done.

I think what people seem to lose sight of, though (or never have sight of at all), is that it's all relative season to season, and what other teams are doing in a given season. Last year's 9-9 isn't this year's, etc. You simply don't know on January 1, upon completion of the non-con portion of the sched, what will ultimately be needed as a conference record. We don't know now, either, here at the end of January.
8 wins, for example, in the ACC > 9 wins in most other conferences.
The b1g and pac12 are terrible this year and will not get many teams in.
The a10 is looking more and more like a 1-bid league.
etc.

 

[orangenirvana]

If this team simply wins the games they "should" win (@Pitt, @GTech, Wake, NCState, @BC), all they need is one or two "upsets" (@Louisville, @Miami, home vs. UNC, home vs. Clemson seem to be the most realistic) and they should be in considering their relatively impressive work OOC this season.