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Message: [QUOTE="LaggyJon, post: 2243992, member: 6318"] You aren't wrong, but just to devil's advocate a little: This is kind of a cousin of the "only half of NFL starting quarterbacks were 1st round picks" argument that pops up from time to time. It may be true, but that ignores the denominator: there are a couple of dozen guys at any given time drafted as first round QBs, and hundreds of them drafted in later rounds or undrafted. Even if there's an even split in raw numbers, you're talking about something like a 50% chance that your 1st round QB becomes a starter, and a low single digit percent chance that the other group does. That's basically how it works with the recruiting rankings/stars. They aren't gospel, but it's more likely that a 4* guy makes it than a 3*, and same with 5* over 4*s. Identifying Hield, Steph Curry or any of the other crazy outlier 3* guys doesn't really change that. Post-NC, I believe this is a complete list of our 3* scholarship recruits: Buss Patterson, Chino Obokoh, Baye Keita, Brandon Triche, James Southerland, Sean Williams, Devin Brennan-McBride, Arinze Onuaku, Andy Rautins. Definitely a bunch of key guys for us, a few busts, but not a lot of guys that we got huge contributions from as underclassmen. That's part of why I'm tempering expectations for this season. I'm pretty excited about the potential for the team overall, but out of 10 scholarship players we have 4 guys that have ever played a single minute for us and only 3 upperclassmen, only one of whom has logged any significant minutes for us (and, for reasons covered elsewhere, Mr. Howard doesn't totally scream "veteran team leader"). I don't know if we've ever had a team with so little experience, and when we've had inexperienced teams previously, we were usually relying on more 5*/high-4* caliber young guys than we have now. [I] Maybe [/I]Thorpe seamlessly transitions to the zone, [I]maybe [/I]Chukwu's eye is healed and he gives us quality minutes, [I]maybe [/I]Frank shakes off last year and fulfills his potential, [I]maybe [/I]Thompson makes big strides on defense, [I]maybe [/I]those Dolezaj highlights shot on a 2006 Motorola Razr translates to high-level NCAA play immediately. There's a chance enough of those go well that we finish in the top half of the ACC, but I think it's more likely that we struggle a bit, with some more :bang: OOC losses as the team tries to gel early. 12th is probably low (I think there's a good chance we outperform expectations in the ACC given our schedule) but it's hardly the hottest take on earth. Of course, nothing would make me happier than being wrong. [/QUOTE]

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