The ACC is looking squarely at 1 AQ.
But the ACC ridiculously does not want to have 2 AQs out of 16 teams in a 4-4-2-2-1-3.
If there was a 4-4-2-2-1-3... the current field would be:
4 B1G: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, USC
4 SEC: A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss
2 ACC: Louisville, Virginia
2 B12: Texas Tech, BYU
1 G5: Memphis
3 At-Large: ND (Independent) and Texas/Oklahoma (both SEC).
And there are ways in which the B12 and ACC could end up stealing the spot held by Texas/Oklahoma in that scenario anyway. Utah wins out. If Pitt wins out--beating ND, Ga Tech, and Miami... THAT 10-2 Pitt would easily be in the mix for top 15 to get an at-large without interfering with Louisville/Virginia. If Ga Tech wins out and is 11-1, with a win over Georgia... they could possibly be an at-large candidate. So that is three ACC/B12 teams that could end up with an at-large on top of their 2 AQs. The 2 AQs is not a cap. It is a minimum. The ACC was absurd to reject that.
Instead, the ACC/B12 dug in and agreed to keep the 1 AQ/12 teams. There are 3 clear B1G: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon. It is hard to see A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss falling out. That is 7/12. G5 = 8. B12 AQ =9. ACC AQ= 10. So now you have two more spots... currently B12 #2 and ND. And you have 2 SEC and a B12 ahead of the second ACC entrant.
Suppose BYU beats Texas Tech and it is BYU (12-0) vs Texas Tech (10-2) in the B12 CCG. That is equivalent to last year's ACC CG where Texas Tech wins and BYU still gets in.
If Louisville 11-1 faces Virginia 11-1 in the CCG... the loser could very well be out at 11-2. Ga Tech could beat Georgia, but not even make the ACC CCG at 11-1. With 12 team playoff... two 11-win ACC teams on the outside. If Pitt goes 10-2 to beat ND, Ga Tech, and MIami... they might open up a spot... but does it go to Pitt or the loser of the ACC CG? Or does it go to Utah who wins out... or Texas/Oklahoma?
Why would the ACC not want a second guaranteed playoff team EVERY year? This year there are 5 in the top 21, but none in the top 14, because of parody. It is going to be like that for the B12/ACC almost all years. For every year they get 3 out of 12, there will be 5 more that each gets 1. Last year was B12, this year will be ACC.