Chances of winning 5 in a row?

[sugrad68]

View attachment 119384

Probabilities are based on Sagarin. Based on those we have a 9.5% chance of going on a 5 game winning streak.

The math is not always the way to evaluate these things (momentum, matchups are also important things that are not in those calculations), but the 10% seems pretty reasonable to me. A longshot, but not totally out of the question either.

That would be my best-guess scenario. FSU had won 28 in a row at home prior to losing Louisville. I would say we are solid underdogs tomorrow. Line is FSU -6. After that, the next 4 are certainly very winnable games but with this year's SU team, I just don't see it. Too dependent on 3 players offensively and no teamwork at all on offense.

 

[sugrad68]

FWIW, I heard on Brent Axe today that we were in Lunardi's Bracketology. I think he said we were one of the last four in which means play-in. Not really seeing it but it is a ray of hope.

SU is 12-5 with only 1 game where we were out of it (Kansas). St. Bonaventure, Wake, and ND were very close losses which certainly hurt but weren't embarrassing losses. I still say that going 9-9 in the ACC will get us into the tournament. Losing those 2 games to Wake and ND hurt bad but the road to the tournament is fairly clear. Pitt x 2. BC x 2. Wake, NC State. Louisville (big ?), GT, and Clemson are winnable. I'm assuming losses to FSU, Duke, NC, Virginia, and Miami. Wouldn't be surprised if we went 8-10 in conference and won 1 game in the ACC tournament and we'd be in.

 

[kirbivore]

You realize that if you assign an 84% chance of winning each game, you get a 40% of winning all 5, right?

I think we're going to go 4-1, to be honest.

 

[Kowbelkat]

5 what, games ha

 

[cuseattle]

I feel very good about the next four.