Chasing a Better Seed (Feb 15-Feb 21)

[jncuse]

As we are off the bubble (as of now) and won't get back on to it unti; next week at the earliest (and hopefully not again), I decided to change the format this week, and I am off the bubble watch.

I will follow the 12 teams that are higher than us on the bracket matrix that day. Debate if those teams should be seeded above us.

Hopefully we can beat Louisville to make this really interesting.

Here is the current picture from the matrix that was updated this morning. As usual it is a sliding ranking that takes brackets from the last week -- but over half were updated in the last 2 days so it should be reasonably up to date. I did snip some of the rankings from today as well -- you can see Texas AM is certainly fading -- Notre Dame for example is rising.

There is not much that separates most of these teams.

 

[jncuse]

No games Monday.

 

[upperdeck]

much of this come back to the debate.. seed for the year or seed for how they are playing. i think you reward the team for the years worth of work by putting them in but there has to be some thought in how they will perform when seeding.. they have done this in the past with teams that had a great year but an injury clearly knocked them down a line or 2 going into the tourney.

if you seed based on the last 4-5 weeks only 2-3 of these teams would be ahead of us and if they review the non JB games as relevant that even adds to it more.

 

[longislandcuse]

much of this come back to the debate.. seed for the year or seed for how they are playing. i think you reward the team for the years worth of work by putting them in but there has to be some thought in how they will perform when seeding.. they have done this in the past with teams that had a great year but an injury clearly knocked them down a line or 2 going into the tourney.

if you seed based on the last 4-5 weeks only 2-3 of these teams would be ahead of us and if they review the non JB games as relevant that even adds to it more.

Just my opinion but I predict the non-JB games play more if we end up on the bubble but not so much if we are solidly in.

 

[KaiserUEO]

How about an '8-9 seed watch'??

If we want to see the 2nd weekend, give me a 6/7 or a 10/11 seed.

12, being the bubble.

 

[upperdeck]

hard to really read the ncaa on this. if we finish great like 5-1 and you take those 9 games out 23-9 becomes 19-4 and thats a top 10 type of record, someone in the room would have to at least give that some thought.

 

[OrangeDW]

History shows, they will screw us if they can. I'm nowhere near comfortable with this "8 seed" territory given that I don't think we've ever gotten in as anything less than an 8 seed. If we're 10-11 seed territory, they will stick it to us and leave us out.

But screw all that, we've won 8 out of 9 and took Virginia to the wire in the one loss. I want a 4-1 finish(minimum), a deep ACC tourney run, giving us a 4-5 seed resume that even those dorks can't deny. LET'S GO ORANGE!

 

[Alsacs]

How about an '8-9 seed watch'??

If we want to see the 2nd weekend, give me a 6/7 or a 10/11 seed.

12, being the bubble.

The last 3 and 5 of the last 6NCAA Tournaments one 8-9 team has beaten a 1 seed.
2010 Northern Iowa over Kansas
2011 Butler over Pitt
2013 Wichita State over Gonzaga
2014 Kentucky over Wichita State
2015 NC State over Villanova

I am not afraid of the 8-9 game. I mean really only Kansas would be an awful matchup. Michigan State is not going to be a 1 seed. Oklahoma is a scary team but beatable. Nova would be fine by me.

 

[jdubs30]

How about an '8-9 seed watch'??

If we want to see the 2nd weekend, give me a 6/7 or a 10/11 seed.

12, being the bubble.

give me nova over xavier

 

[jncuse]

hard to really read the ncaa on this. if we finish great like 5-1 and you take those 9 games out 23-9 becomes 19-4 and thats a top 10 type of record, someone in the room would have to at least give that some thought.

Do they take Bo Ryan's games out of the Wisconsin resume?

 

[jncuse]

Tuesday Games

We are currently #31 in the matrix at 8.39

South Carolina Avg Seed - 7,00, Despite the solid record, the power rankings don't like them and neither does Vegas. 6.5 point is low at a terrible Missouri team. They could possibly lose this one.

Texas 5.37 - With a win Texas would be 17-9, and be very close to a 4 seed. Hard to imagine with a 17-9 record, but it just goes to show those middle seeds are so so close.

Florida 7.87 --- but trending down from the loss this weekend. This is a tough road game for Florida against a non tourney team.

 

[jncuse]

Texas AM - 5.29, (recent brackets at 6 or 7). No matter the result, we win either way I suppose.

Baylor 6.68 - A big road win opportunity for them. A loss and our resume is certainly no worse.

 

[pearl31]

Texas AM - 5.29, (recent brackets at 6 or 7). No matter the result, we win either way I suppose.
View attachment 55553

Baylor 6.68 - A big road win opportunity for them. A loss and our resume is certainly no worse.
View attachment 55554

actually Baylor is at home vs Iowa St

 

[upperdeck]

Do they take Bo Ryan's games out of the Wisconsin resume?

they could but 7-5 with bo vs 9-4 is really only a 1 game swing vs 4-5/14-3 a 10 game swing

 

[jncuse]

they could but 7-5 with bo vs 9-4 is really only a 1 game swing vs 4-5/14-3 a 10 game swing

• But one was in an OOC schedule, and one was against a B10 schedule.

The RpiWizard on RPIForecast allows you to isolate the two:
Ryan: 7-5, RPI 109, SOS 57
Gard: 9-4, RPI 16, SOS 1

• One has an RPI of 109, the other has an RPI of 16

I did the same for Syracuse (just using the games played), and yes it is more extreme.
JB: 14-3, RPI 14, SOS 24
Hop: 4-5, RPI 197, SOS 124

• The difference in RPI is more significant for JB (14 vs 197, 16 vs 109, but it is still very significant for both)

A committee member may note that. "We have a team playing much better without its HOF Coach and one playing a lot worse without its HOF coach". Players go up and down -- maybe we just leave it to them,

 

[jncuse]

If we end up on the bubble (which we should not), the JB excuse is 100% gojng nowhere.

The only way we get back on the bubble is if we end the season at 1-5 or 2-5... and with such a slump to end the season, why would the committee ignore the other slump?

But I will take 5-0 roll all day long over that!

 

[HoustonCuse]

History shows, they will screw us if they can. I'm nowhere near comfortable with this "8 seed" territory given that I don't think we've ever gotten in as anything less than an 8 seed. If we're 10-11 seed territory, they will stick it to us and leave us out.

This is absolutely correct. I don't think there is any such thing as a bubble for Syracuse. A win tomorrow night resolves just about everything in a favorable way.

 

[jncuse]

This is absolutely correct. I don't think there is any such thing as a bubble for Syracuse. A win tomorrow night resolves just about everything in a favorable way.

We have only arguably been screweed once.

Since 1990. we have only missed the tournament 4 times (+2 times with penalties)
- 2002 + 2008 we were fairly left out.
- 2007 we got screwed
- 1997 just didn't follow the bubble enough those days, but I didn't get the sense at the time that we were a strong contender for an at large.

 

[Alsacs]

We have only arguably been screweed once.

Since 1990. we have only missed the tournament 4 times (+2 times with penalties)
- 2002 + 2008 we were fairly left out.
- 2007 we got screwed
- 1997 just didn't follow the bubble enough those days, but I didn't get the sense at the time that we were a strong contender for an at large.

Assume we go 4-1 down the stretch with the loss at UL or UNC. What seed would you project for us? Again assume we win all ACCT games we would wear the white jersey and lose all games we would wear the orange jersey?

I think 5-6 seed.

 

[Alsacs]

BTW in 2008 we were first team out. According to John Feinstein if Georgia didn't win the SEC tournament by a miracle Syracuse would have made the NCAA tournament.

Also if the tourney were 68 teams instead of 65 we likely make it in 1997, 2007, 2008. Only 2002 we likely miss it. JB's worst teams have been bubble teams just left out.

 

[jncuse]

BTW in 2008 we were first team out. According to John Feinstein if Georgia didn't win the SEC tournament by a miracle Syracuse would have made the NCAA tournament.

Also if the tourney were 68 teams instead of 65 we likely make it in 1997, 2007, 2008. Only 2002 we likely miss it. JB's worst teams have been bubble teams just left out.

Thanks.

Those seem more like victims of circumstances instead of being "screwed" per se.

 

[jncuse]

We are sort of in that no man's land right now. Mind you, I am very happy that we cleared a little space from the bubble for now. But not near a pod seed or the bubble which are probably the most interesting things of tourney watch

We are up to #30 today on the bracket matrix at 8.12 (moved ahead of Florida, who was only ahead because of some old brackets that dropped off)

South Carolina is down by 9 at a horrible Missouri team. They are currently #26 on the Matrix -- we would slide ahead of them if they lose this.

Texas is winning by 12 vs West Virginia. What are the most losses ever for a team with a top 4 seed? Texas may get it, as the B12 is perceived as very strong by the metrics.

 

[jncuse]

Assume we go 4-1 down the stretch with the loss at UL or UNC. What seed would you project for us? Again assume we win all ACCT games we would wear the white jersey and lose all games we would wear the orange jersey?

I think 5-6 seed.

I think we get to 5, slight chance at 6, smaller chance at 4 (10/65/25) . That 6 line is not that strong right now, so if we made a nice push with a real quality win we could jump them.

 

[jncuse]

South Carolina just loss at #189 RPI - Missouri. This will slide them down, and we should be ahead of them consensus wise.

 

[pearl31]

South Carolina just loss at #189 RPI - Missouri. This will slide them down, and we should be ahead of them consensus wise.

that's a really bad loss - rivaling even our SJ loss, and they don't have near the top-50 wins we do