Chasing a Better Seed (Feb 15-Feb 21)

[MSOrange]

South Carolina just loss at #189 RPI - Missouri. This will slide them down, and we should be ahead of them consensus wise.

That's just a horrible loss for South Carolina. Mizzou didn't even have their 2nd leading scorer who was kicked off the team today.

 

[jncuse]

Matrix Guys are taking a break until Saturday in terms of updates, but I think it's safe to assume we are now up to #29 as of this morning.

We clearly jumped South Carolina.
Baylor and Texas had top 25 wins at home, so they stay ahead of us and probably pass a few teams themselves
Texas A&M had a home win against that holds them steady

Things change several places if we tonight. I don't think a loss will hurt us much, other than a blown opportunity to really move up.

Other games to watch tonight:

Dayton a #4 seed vs St. Joes a 9 seed. You are never sure how the committee will treat the A-10 .. some years it gives it multiple tourney teams but no respect for its top team. Dayton deserves a 4 as of now, but I would not be surprised if the committee met now it game them a 6

Go with the dog on this next one

We are currently two spots behind them consensus wise, which means the teams are basically interchangeable at this point. If we both lose, its probably status quo. Obviously if one team wins, they will create a gap on the other.

Indiana is currently #24 on the consensus. Nebraska has played a few tough road games this year against top teams including winning at Michigan St.

 

[jncuse]

#28 Colorado, #29 Syracuse and #27 Providence all have similar games tonight - higher seeded teams on the road, where they all dogs by 7-9 points. If one of them wins it will create separation.-

 

[jncuse]

And while not the purpose of this thread, I did want to point out the great bubble games tonight.

Many of them will have a result that will not hurt us "net", but for individual teams they are interesting.

1. Dayton at St. Joes as highlighted above

Top Win Opportunity at Home for Bubble Team Temple. _8.5 points seems a good number for Temple at home.

2 Bubble Teams go Head to Head

Texas Tech is one of the last team in, and they are only a 4 point dog. This is a real opportunity for them for something big

Not an easy game for 6th last team in Seton Hall at a non tourney team

 

[jncuse]

And finally a classic.

Will St. John's finally win?

When was the last time Depaul was at least at even odds in a conference road game?

 

[pearl31]

#28 Colorado, #29 Syracuse and #27 Providence all have similar games tonight - higher seeded teams on the road, where they all dogs by 7-9 points. If one of them wins it will create separation.-

View attachment 55612

haven't looked to closely at their overall resume, but still have to chuckle at the inflated perception of USC, but I do hope they beat Colorado (who I think is the better team) tonight

 

[jncuse]

haven't looked to closely at their overall resume, but still have to chuckle at the inflated perception of USC, but I do hope they beat Colorado (who I think is the better team) tonight

The seeding of Pac12 teams is a bit of an unknown in my view. Because they are so deep they get a lot of top 50 wins which is why people are seededing them high. I am sure the committee will say they are all legit tourney teams, but as a group may seed them a bit lower than expected.

 

[Knicks411]

The seeding of Pac12 teams is a bit of an unknown in my view. Because they are so deep they get a lot of top 50 wins which is why people are seededing them high. I am sure the committee will say they are all legit tourney teams, but as a group may seed them a bit lower than expected.

I think ESPN said 11 of their 12 teams are top 80 or better in the RPI.

I'm definitely biased, but something I'm really looking at right now is if we can get seeded into Brooklyn. I'm thinking Maryland and Nova get a 2 and 1, respectively, and are put in Brooklyn. So anywhere from a 7-10 seed puts us in play. Neither team is in our league, that helps. And the committee does like to keep teams close, when possible. If you look at the teams on the 7-10 line on the matrix, we're probably fighting Providence, Seton Hall, Pitt, UConn, and St. Joes. This one there's really no way to track until the field is seeded I guess, but it gives me something to do.

 

[Alsacs]

I think ESPN said 11 of their 12 teams are top 80 or better in the RPI.

I'm definitely biased, but something I'm really looking at right now is if we can get seeded into Brooklyn. I'm thinking Maryland and Nova get a 2 and 1, respectively, and are put in Brooklyn. So anywhere from a 7-10 seed puts us in play. Neither team is in our league, that helps. And the committee does like to keep teams close, when possible. If you look at the teams on the 7-10 line on the matrix, we're probably fighting Providence, Seton Hall, Pitt, UConn, and St. Joes. This one there's really no way to track until the field is seeded I guess, but it gives me something to do.

I am betting you are in NYC area but for our fanbase either Brooklyn or Providence would be de facto home court advantages. As we did last weekend at BC that game was a home game on the road. In New England, NY/NJ/Philly/DC basically I-95 it would be huge for us.

If we could get into Nova's pod which is going to be Brooklyn/Philly I would take that now.

 

[Knicks411]

I am betting you are in NYC area but for our fanbase either Brooklyn or Providence would be de facto home court advantages. As we did last weekend at BC that game was a home game on the road. In New England, NY/NJ/Philly/DC basically I-95 it would be huge for us.

If we could get into Nova's pod which is going to be Brooklyn/Philly I would take that now.

Yeah I live 10 miles from Barclays, so if we get put there, I'll be there. Providence would work for the fan base as a whole as well, but like I said, I'm biased. If Maryland/Nova are in Brooklyn, Providence might be tougher, because you'd have to think at least one ACC team would be sent there

 

[Dave85]

#28 Colorado, #29 Syracuse and #27 Providence all have similar games tonight - higher seeded teams on the road, where they all dogs by 7-9 points. If one of them wins it will create separation.-

View attachment 55612

A quote from JB: "Good teams win."

 

[KaiserUEO]

A quote from JB: "Good teams win."

a quote from Kaiser..."unless the good team is coached by Hop"

 

[Dave85]

a quote from Kaiser..."unless the good team is coached by Hop"

Ouch! I can't go there since he signed a contract.

 

[jncuse]

I had only created one bracket this year for my amusement, and I assumed that Villanova would not be able to play the East Regional in Philly. I had assumed Villanova in Brooklyn when we were discussing them as an opponent if we played an 8/9 game. But then I thought they would go to Louisville or Chicago afterwards..

Just above the travel threshold I assume. I suppose as a #1 seed they are entitled to the luck of the draw. I certainly hope that Villanova as a #2 seed is not placed in Philly.

 

[Dave85]

As we are off the bubble (as of now) and won't get back on to it unti; next week at the earliest (and hopefully not again), I decided to change the format this week, and I am off the bubble watch.

I will follow the 12 teams that are higher than us on the bracket matrix that day. Debate if those teams should be seeded above us.

Hopefully we can beat Louisville to make this really interesting.

Here is the current picture from the matrix that was updated this morning. As usual it is a sliding ranking that takes brackets from the last week -- but over half were updated in the last 2 days so it should be reasonably up to date. I did snip some of the rankings from today as well -- you can see Texas AM is certainly fading -- Notre Dame for example is rising.

There is not much that separates most of these teams.

View attachment 55534

Something just sounds strange about "chasing a better seed".

 

[jncuse]

Yeah I live 10 miles from Barclays, so if we get put there, I'll be there. Providence would work for the fan base as a whole as well, but like I said, I'm biased. If Maryland/Nova are in Brooklyn, Providence might be tougher, because you'd have to think at least one ACC team would be sent there

Where it gets problematic is if we play well and end up on 5 line. (I guess that only becomes something to think about if we actually win tonight)

Often those teams get sent out west with the 4 seeds, and no different this year.

My quick guess (correct me if I am on my US Geography)

Nova - Brooklyn
Kansas - St Louis
Oklahoma - Oklahoma City
Virginia - Raleigh
Iowa - Des Moines
UNC - Raleigh (of course)
Xavier - St Louis
Maryland - Brooklyn
Miami - Providence ???
West Virginia - Providence
Oregon - Spokane
Michigan St - Des Moines

So right now a 5 seed would head to Denver (2 spots), Spokane, or Oklahoma City.

 

[jncuse]

Something just sounds strange about "chasing a better seed".

Yes, not crazy about the title I created.

 

[kirbivore]

We have only arguably been screweed once.

Since 1990. we have only missed the tournament 4 times (+2 times with penalties)
- 2002 + 2008 we were fairly left out.
- 2007 we got screwed
- 1997 just didn't follow the bubble enough those days, but I didn't get the sense at the time that we were a strong contender for an at large.

1997 SU lost a home game to Pitt to close out the season. It was a killer and dropped SU in the BET 8/9 game where they won the the first round game then lost to #1 Nova in the quarters. SU beats Pitt, finishes higher in the standings, wins 2 in the BET and I think they sneak in.

 

[pearl31]

ok, so...
Temple spanked by Nova
FSU loses (at home) to Ga Tech
Texas Tech takes down Oklahoma
Bonnies lose to lowly La Salle
LSU loses at home to 'bama
S.Hall wins @ hoyasuxa
Providence taken to the woodshed by Xavier
St. Joes takes down Dayton

Of those that potentially hurt us are the TexTech, S.Hall and St. Joes wins - otherwise mostly good outcomes for us

 

[jncuse]

Yep, a good idea to keep a watch on that bubble.

I don't think tonight really hurt us, but it shook my confidence. Purely based on matrix seems like Bama is in, and FSU is out after tonight.

Nothing happened to change my view this week on 9-9 being more likely in than not.

 

[Knicks411]

Yep, a good idea to keep a watch on that bubble.

I don't think tonight really hurt us, but it shook my confidence. Purely based on matrix seems like Bama is in, and FSU is out after tonight.

Nothing happened to change my view this week on 9-9 being more likely in than not.

Agree with you, but if we lose Saturday, I do start to get a little nervous. Though honestly, we will likely lose @UNC, but with the way FSU has been playing, we should be able to take 2 of the other 3, if not all 3.