cherry picking Hunt's passing stats crudely eliminating screens

[RF2044]

Practice is a lot different than game speed no matter who the opponent is.

That's true--but it is certainly easy to argue that games are about executing the strategy of the game plan you put together for that opponent, not specifically about looking to tweak things or try new things. Especially because you might not want to tip your hand to down the road opponents.

I also recognize that when you are up big, it's far less risky to deviate and try things out, so if there's any time to try new wrinkles, its in that type of situation.

 

[RF2044]

these are the same coaches that started Drew Allen last year. they might not believe what they see in practice now and/or they are still terrified of hunt


(same coaches are 9-6, i remember that, really i do)

I honestly don't think that's what it was about at all with Allen. By all accounts, the competition was close, we were playing a de facto road game to start the season against a quality opponent that was deemed vulnerable for an upset, and the coaches erred on the side of the experienced player who on paper seemed to give us the best chance to win that type of early season game.

I give the coaching staff a lot of credit for changing direction quickly and not stubbornly sticking to their guns about Allen. A LOT of credit.

 

[SWC75]

Ryan Nassib's stats are on this apge:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Nassib

First year, (back-up, minimal chances): 6.2 yards per attempt, (a good efficiency rating) 11.7 per completion, (which tells you where he was throwing)

Second year, (now the starter): 6.5 per attempt, 11.6 per completion

Third year: 6.5 yards per attempt, 10.4 per completion

Fourth Year: 8.0 per attempt, 12.8 per completion. A senior quarterback with two good senior receivers.

Terrell Hunt

First year: Saw no action at all behind Nassib.

Second year: 6.0 per attempt, 9.8 per completion

Third year, (so far): 5.7 per attempt, 9.0 per completion. As Millhouse points, out the numbers are better if you take out the bubble screens:
6.9 per attempt and 10.1 per completion.

I think some of it is MacDonald's offense, a lot of it is waiting for a "go-to" receiver(s) to emerge and a lot of it is that Hunt is still developing.. I think he's got the talent and, like Nassib, does much better throwing intermediate passes over the middle than throwing to the sideline or deep. We need to be patient with all three factors. it's early for all of them: MacDonald, the receivers and Hunt.

 

[Millhouse]

I honestly don't think that's what it was about at all with Allen. By all accounts, the competition was close, we were playing a de facto road game to start the season against a quality opponent that was deemed vulnerable for an upset, and the coaches erred on the side of the experienced player who on paper seemed to give us the best chance to win that type of early season game.

I give the coaching staff a lot of credit for changing direction quickly and not stubbornly sticking to their guns about Allen. A LOT of credit.

me too. i'm glad it worked out how it did. if hunt had started and played the way he did early, they would've yanked him and gone to allen for the rest of the string and hunt would be way behind

 

[Millhouse]

Ryan Nassib's stats are on this apge:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Nassib

First year, (back-up, minimal chances): 6.2 yards per attempt, (a good efficiency rating) 11.7 per completion, (which tells you where he was throwing)

Second year, (now the starter): 6.5 per attempt, 11.6 per completion

Third year: 6.5 yards per attempt, 10.4 per completion

Fourth Year: 8.0 per attempt, 12.8 per completion. A senior quarterback with two good senior receivers.

Terrell Hunt

First year: Saw no action at all behind Nassib.

Second year: 6.0 per attempt, 9.8 per completion

Third year, (so far): 5.7 per attempt, 9.0 per completion. As Millhouse points, out the numbers are better if you take out the bubble screens:
6.9 per attempt and 10.1 per completion.

I think some of it is MacDonald's offense, a lot of it is waiting for a "go-to" receiver(s) to emerge and a lot of it is that Hunt is still developing.. I think he's got the talent and, like Nassib, does much better throwing intermediate passes over the middle than throwing to the sideline or deep. We need to be patient with all three factors. it's early for all of them: MacDonald, the receivers and Hunt.

nassib didn't have a good rating in 09. it was a smidge worse than Hunt's last year

 

[RF2044]

me too. i'm glad it worked out how it did. if hunt had started and played the way he did early, they would've yanked him and gone to allen for the rest of the string and hunt would be way behind

That's actually a good point. Although I'd venture to guess that Hunt wouldn't have faltered like Allen did, but it could have worked out that way with losses against PSU/NW.

Ultimately, I don't think that Hunt throws well enough to be an NFL prospect or anything, but he can still be a heckuva college QB. And with his ability to throw AND make plays with his feet, the sky is the limit in that regard. Need to continue to upgrade the WR corps, and hopefuly that process is getting jump started now that players like Custis / Ishmael are being intergrated more into the game plan. Last year, it took Estime about 9 or 10 games to round into form. Same could happen with these two.

 

[sufandu]

are you guys arguing over a 2-0 record?

Is that all that matters? If so, why watch the game? We can just wait for the score in the paper the next morning. It's important to look at how a team plays regardless of win/lose.

 

[bevosu]

My memory tells me that Hunt got off to a very good start last year albeit against lesser opponents. He faltered when the competition got tougher...but then he got back into gear late.

 

[retro44]

Is that all that matters? If so, why watch the game? We can just wait for the score in the paper the next morning. It's important to look at how a team plays regardless of win/lose.

jeeeeeez can't anyone have a little fun around here...

 

[sufandu]

jeeeeeez can't anyone have a little fun around here...

Millhouse has all kinds of fun breaking down passing stats.

 

[xc84]

Millhouse has all kinds of fun breaking down passing stats.

If you just look at all incomplete passes, Hunt's rating is awful! They should stop calling those plays.

 

[Millhouse]

If you just look at all incomplete passes, Hunt's rating is awful! They should stop calling those plays.

that's not what i did. his completion percentage barely changed.

I made a small mistake

change 15-22 to 16-23, 159 yards, 1, td.

139 rating, not 141

Point's the same though

here's the data

I kept

Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 14 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to N/A
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 12 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 8 yds to the CMich 47
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 16 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Kendall Moore for 12 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Adrian Flemming for 15 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jamal Custis for 3 yds to the CMich 17
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Brisly Estime
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Norton KICK)
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 20 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Kendall Moore for 4 yds to the CMich 48
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Ashton Broyld
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Jamal Custis
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Adrian Flemming, broken up by Chris Kantzavelos
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 14 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Brisly Estime
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Alvin Cornelius for 16 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jamal Custis for 6 yds to the Syrac 45
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 6 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST down
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ben Lewis for 7 yds to the CMich 28
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jamal Custis for 2 yds to the Syrac 39

I threw out

Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Prince-Tyson Gulley
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Devante McFarlane for 9 yds to the Syrac 40
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ben Lewis for 3 yds to the CMich 11
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 3 yds to the Syrac 28
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Prince-Tyson Gulley
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Adonis Ameen-Moore
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ervin Philips for 1 yd to the Syrac 39

I tried to make it fair by looking at the player. Gulley and Ameen Moore aren't running fly patterns. Not perfect. Can't remember every pass.

 

[baggerbob]

The main thing is when he needed a first down with a pass, 2 times he hit Ashton over the middle with a bullet for a 1st down. That's making proper use of the passing game. I think another pass over the middle went to Ishmal for a 1st down. Move the chains, and other teams have to also respect Hunts feet. Just read your last post, Hunt picked up 9 1st downs with his passes, not bad.

 

[sufandu]

If you just look at all incomplete passes, Hunt's rating is awful! They should stop calling those plays.

I don't always agree with Millhouse, but I don't have a problem with him critiquing our passing game after a win. I'm not one of these people that thinks a team is above reproach just because they won. I've watched games where we've lost to a better team and I felt good about the way we played, and I've watched games that we've won and thought they looked like crap. I'll take a win any day, but, if there's room for improvement, there's nothing wrong in pointing it out.

I wasn't able to watch the game this weekend, so I don't have an opinion about how we played. I'm glad we blew out an inferior opponent. I hope we continue to grow because there aren't many of those left on the schedule.

 

[xc84]

I don't always agree with Millhouse, but I don't have a problem with him critiquing our passing game after a win. I'm not one of these people that thinks a team is above reproach just because they won. I've watched games where we've lost to a better team and I felt good about the way we played, and I've watched games that we've won and thought they looked like crap. I'll take a win any day, but, if there's room for improvement, there's nothing wrong in pointing it out.

I wasn't able to watch the game this weekend, so I don't have an opinion about how we played. I'm glad we blew out an inferior opponent. I hope we continue to grow because there aren't many of those left on the schedule.

I don't have a problem with critique either. That's fine. I just don't really care much about qb rating and what we can do to boost it. Hunt played a very nice game with good mix of running and passing accuracy. I find that the plays that didn't work were more the fault of execution than strategy. I think blocking is lacking on the screens and if they can resolve that, they will have an added weapon. Yes, it was just CMU but I watched Purdue this week and they had some decent flashes early on in their game v. ND.

 

[Millhouse]

I don't have a problem with critique either. That's fine. I just don't really care much about qb rating and what we can do to boost it. Hunt played a very nice game with good mix of running and passing accuracy. I find that the plays that didn't work were more the fault of execution than strategy. I think blocking is lacking on the screens and if they can resolve that, they will have an added weapon. Yes, it was just CMU but I watched Purdue this week and they had some decent flashes early on in their game v. ND.

the objective isn't to improve QB rating. I think these scripted slow developing screens stink. I just use the qb rating to verify that the best i can without charting every play

screens work when there's space and when the ball gets there as fast as possible. the reason i think this stuff is scripted is because hunt is always faking to the RB before throwing the screen. there's no way the screen pass is some option that he decides on by watching the DE and the CBs at the same time pulling it out and throwing it. it's horrendous play design and i think the numbers prove it.

good teams that run bubble screens go at a high tempo, see the space, snap the ball and get it to that space as quickly as possible. if you're faking to a RB while your WR is standing still, a bunch of salivating DBs think, I'm going to kill that WR

i just don't think mcdonald understands it.

 

[Millhouse]

here's another good link by a villanova WR coach. not sure if he's still there

http://fishduck.com/2013/06/take-and-give-oregons-bubble-zone-read-philosophy/

i don't get why we're throwing screens when the defense has the right number of defenders there. are they only getting there after hunt has made his read or are we throwing it there knowing we don't have numbers.

 

[SUFan44]

here's another good link by a villanova WR coach. not sure if he's still there

http://fishduck.com/2013/06/take-and-give-oregons-bubble-zone-read-philosophy/

i don't get why we're throwing screens when the defense has the right number of defenders there. are they only getting there after hunt has made his read or are we throwing it there knowing we don't have numbers.

Could it be a check by the QB to throw the bubble? Just trying to play devil's advocate. McDonald gets a lot of grief on this board on this topic - and rightfully so. All I'm saying is maybe it's not 100% on him?

But I absolutely agree that we shouldn't play action with bubble screens - defeats the purpose and is beyond stupid.