I love this team, I’ve seen this coming since last year. But I just don’t think the team is at a place where they are going to take these guys down down there. SU is a top three team in a P5 conference, nothing wrong with that.
I know a narrative post is out of place in a prediction thread. But I'm trying to figure out how you get to CU +18. No doubt it's a brutal atmosphere down there. And you're probably thinking 2019 - CU was numero uno and we had Tommy going up against Trevor Lawrence - throwing to Tee Higgins and Amari Rodgers (both NFL) or handing off to T. Etienne (NFL). We got killed. Or 2020. CU had the top offense and 2d defense - and we were 15th on offense and 11th on defense, rolling with backup Rex Culpepper (26 point loss).
But (even assuming 2017 was an outlier), this seems more like 2018 (against Bryant) or last year with the same QB's as 2022. In both of those comparables we lost by 3 or 4 points. 2018 saw the Dungey crew face TL along with Higgins, Renfrow and Etienne RB. For obvious reasons CU was #1 in defense and offense. We had the #2 ACC offense, the 6th ranked defense, and were ahead in the 4th until Etienne scored with 41 seconds left. We lose by 4. Last year, CU/SU were #1/6 on defense, and 9/10 on offense => 3-pt. loss. In both examples the outcomes tracked the rankings. I think we should expect the same this year.
We are #1 in defense (pts allowed), CU is 3d. Offense is CU by a nose (3d, we're 4th). They might outflank us on the DL, but much like 2018 and 2021, there's no David/Goliath-level imbalance. Our D can play. Our LB's are at least equal to theirs and our secondary is better. We have the league's #2-ranked RB and WR/TE. Their receivers are well down the ACC list ... nowhere near as dangerous as 2019 or 2020. Their QB is good (and improving), but no TL.
If the trends play out, this could be a tie or an SU win. Assuming we don't play to our rankings, you could give them a one-score advantage b/c of the atmosphere. But to get to 18 points - where you are - we'd have to turn it over and seriously underperform. Could happen, but I doubt it ... with guys like OG, GS and ST ... I'm pulling an
RF2044 ... prepare to be pleasantly surprised.