After 619 pages and two months of checking this thread here is where I am at. If I am ADBB, my job is 1. to give the program the coach with the highest probability of winning for the next 5 to 10 years, 2. but I also need to hire someone who I can get along with and want on my team.
I think #2 eliminates BH from consideration... sorry, but there is no way I want someone who is a clear flight risk on my team. My hunch is Syracuse did feel him out and maybe even got to an agreement in principle, but it was clear that BH would not be long for the job. Part of a leaders job is to manage egos for sure... but there are egos and there are egos. Plus I already have one ego monster on my team.
So going to consideration #1... I evaluate based on ability to bring NIL, ability to recruit players, strategy and vision, program management, and execution and most importantly what do they do when they get punched in the face in a game.
Based on all of the above, unless you are going cheap, I have no idea how you go with Luke Murray unless he completely blows everyone away in the interview. Fran obv was able to do this and but he at least had the title of #1 recruiter in college football... but do we even know how good of a recruiter Murray is?
I have no idea who the choices are but I've heard Hurley, GMAC, Martelli Jr, Otz from ISU (too lazy to spell it out) Of all these dudes Otz is the clear #1 and it's not even close, but I believe he is a pipe dream. We know what Hurley can do and he's probably a 2 or a 3 out of 5 in all areas but recruiting where he is a 4 maybe (being generous), I also suspect the Hurley name gets him to a 4 on the NIL piece.
GMAC and Martelli are relatively unknowns, but in this case the devil you don't know is probably more attractive than the devil you do know from seeing Hurley's record so those two are above Hurley suspect Martelli is probably a bit above GMAC in everything but NIL and recruiting. We don't know how either of these guys can recruit at the P4 level, but GMAC is probably a bit ahead because he did bring talent that JB couldn't close.
The biggest separator is going to be NIL... GMAC's NIL potential blows everyone out of the water, including Martelli. And I get it... if Martelli or someone else comes in and makes the dance in year 1 the NIL will come in, but again my job as AD is to find the highest probability and here GMAC wins easily because of what he will bring in year 0 and year 1
So to me Otz from ISU (again don't want to spell his name) or someone like him is choice #1 by a mile, but we seem to have not shot. Of the alternatives, I wouldn't hire BH either and of the rest GMAC is the clear choice based on the NOW... hiring anyone else is a super big risk and you better sure the upside is there.
Thanks for listening to my ted talk.