College Sports Tomorrow Super League of Extraordinary Teams

[OttoinGrotto]

The problem is--it's often difficult to tell whether a comment is being made with a straight face.

Indeed.

 

[pokercuse08]

Putting myself in the power brokers (SEC/B1G, specifically their biggest brands) seat for a moment, they currently have a hammer-lock on the situation. It's like a real life game of Monopoly, and they have all the developed properties. All they have to do is wait it out and with a few more trips around the board, the other conferences will collapse and they'll get their pick.

The SEC has 16 members, and if they had their druthers they would probably give up Vandy and that's it? The B1G has 18, but they'd probably lose a few more - maybe Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern?

How many more programs would be ~median programs in those conferences, value wise? You could at least make a case for 15-20 more schools: Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia are the obvious ones in my opinion, in no particular order. After that it's (again no particular order) Utah, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Houston, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Kansas State, Arizona, Arizona State.

So why go from 34 to 70? Why share the pie with Boston College, Wake Forest, Baylor, UCF, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Washington State, Oregon State, etc, etc?

The current path is to pick off the 10 to 20 schools they actually want, then try to find a way to shed the deadweight if possible - likely by making payouts skew for performance and try to turn programs like Rutgers and Vanderbilt into a financial mess.

In order to change the path, you have to find a way to peel off the support of schools like Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, etc. So you have to give them the two things they want: more of the money relative to even the other B1G/SEC schools and a way to drop the dead weight in their conferences.

So it's got to be a tiered system that has a top tier of ~20 programs getting the most money. In order to be palatable enough to get a deal done, this has to be promotion/relegation based, while leaving those types of schools highly confident they're never getting demoted. Part of it would probably be record based on some sort of rolling basis, part might include automatic exemption to that level for anyone who's appeared in a national title game the previous five years, or won one the previous 10.

Those 20 programs split into two "divisions" each year, and only play within their divisions - top four in each make the playoffs.

The next tier gets ~50 programs, split into geographical divisions, no demotion for these programs, but you can be promoted to the top tier. You're looking at maybe six divisions. Add one, non-permanent, based on the promotion/relegation model. So now you've got seven divisions. Each winner is in the playoff, plus a wild card (or two if you have 5+1 instead of 6+1.

The next tier is the rest of the current FBS, trying to get promoted.

I think there's a viable path to something like this, with the powerhouses allying with the schools trying to preserve their seat at the table to make the bottom ~half of the SEC/B1G take a haircut.

Other than helping the blue bloods on the football side get a bigger piece of the pie than they already have sooner than they're otherwise going to have it (and without looking as greedy), I don't see how you convince them not to stay the current course.

 

[FloridaCuse]

I think if this is going to go anywhere it'll have to be from the presidents of the major universities. I think if it happens at all it is more likely the interest will come from the presidents of B1G schools more than SEC schools. Although in his interview Pete Thamel said he didn't see this proposal happening, he also said the future of college sports is totally up in the air and no one knows what's going to happen in the future given the financial uncertainty of the lawsuits against the NCAA and that many believe the operations of the NCAA violate Federal antitrust law. I think in the article in The Athletic someone said, it may have been Chancellor Syverud, that the lawsuit against the NCAA for past NIL money could cost billions of dollars and bankrupt the schools that are members of the NCAA. If that is the risk, and enough university presidents think it is, they may want to do some type of overall college sports reorganization such as this proposal in order to incorporate paying players and a collective bargaining agreement so they can settle the cases. If this is so, it's the presidents who will decide this, not the commissioners of the B1G and SEC. I doubt that Syverud & Gee of W.Va. would spend the time working on this and have their names associated with it without having consulted with and gotten at least some amount of encouragement or interest from a significant number of other university presidents of P5/P4 schools.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Never happen. Makes too much sense.

 

[HtownOrange]

I love the idea of regional divisions and the restoration of regional rivalries within an overarching "Super League". Basically taking college football back to what it once was. But I don't think that will ever happen.

The whole idea is predicated on the top echelon of college football agreeing to expanded access and a level playing field, and they don't want that. Their goal isn't just more money for themselves...it's more money for themselves at the expense of everyone else. They're going to cannibalize the sport and consume all of the resources that the mid-level teams now receive. So they won't ever sign on to any plan that maintains or expands the number of teams with a seat at the table, because in their view fewer mouths to feed means more food for them.

As far as having reached "peak media value" for college football, I tend to agree. I don't agree, though, that flat or reduced TV revenue will drive the landscape toward the "Super League". Instead, I think the next step will be that media contracts plateau and, in their desire for more money at the expense of others, the SEC/B1G will start to jettison the bottom tier teams. Pushing out teams like Rutgers and Vandy will give the top tier teams more revenue even if the TV contracts stagnate. I don't think that means kicking teams out of the existing conferences. I think it means the top teams leaving the B1G/SEC to start their own league/conference.

Eventually it will be a 20-24 team league that only plays itself, and it will be NFL Lite. We will not be a part of that. The other 100-110 D1A teams will constitute what has always been "College Football". That's where we end up.

I don't like it, and maybe I'm too pessimistic, but that's what I see.

I agree with your assessment. My thoughts are that after a few years of the top heavy SEC, most schools will realize the zero sum gain does not favor top heavy conferences. There can be only one conference champion each year. Texas, OU, Bama, LSU, and UGA cannot win regularly and the lesser teams, TAMU, Auburn, Tennessee, Florida will rarely get a shot at the conference title, and the former mid tier teams will fall to Vandy status.

Fans and donors, especially big donors, will not be content with few and far between conference championships and losing to mediocre performances.

I am leaning towards the bulk of the FBS teams telling the SEC and B1G to split off and they cannot play the remaining FBS teams. This would force the SEC and B1G to the above realization. Without the other conferences, the mid tier and bottom tier teams will feel the heat immediately and the top tier teams will see even their records are no longer padded with the few easy nonconference games they enjoyed to pad their records.

Essentially, they slice their own throats because the fans and donations will fall off.

I think there are enough wise people in the SEC and B1G to avoid what could happen, which explains Sankey’s desire to keep all of FBS in the overall fold, though he obviously wants to maximize revenue for the SEC. I think he knows that a small elite league is just NFL lite and will turn off most CFB fans, as most schools will be cut out of the NFL lite league. Further, an elite league will garner governmental eyes, especially if big states are left out, I.e. NY, VA, NC.

And we can never forget the impact of the networks. The money men will not be happy losing revenue when the non-NFL lite league teams stop watching the B1G and SEC games as they have no basis or interest in them.

Regardless, the SEC and B1G are in the driver’s seat for now but without the remaining conferences to victimize, they lose power. The next few years in CFB will be interesting.

 

[orange79]

I think there are enough wise people in the SEC and B1G to avoid what could happen, which explains Sankey’s desire to keep all of FBS in the overall fold, though he obviously wants to maximize revenue for the SEC. I think he knows that a small elite league is just NFL lite and will turn off most CFB fans, as most schools will be cut out of the NFL lite league. Further, an elite league will garner governmental eyes, especially if big states are left out, I.e. NY, VA, NC.

And we can never forget the impact of the networks. The money men will not be happy losing revenue when the non-NFL lite league teams stop watching the B1G and SEC games as they have no basis or interest in them.

Regardless, the SEC and B1G are in the driver’s seat for now but without the remaining conferences to victimize, they lose power. The next few years in CFB will be interesting.

It will be an interesting balancing act - will they really think with their brains, or their short-term wallets?

Frankly, I'm not betting on 'smart'.

 

[DoctorBombay]

I agree with your assessment. My thoughts are that after a few years of the top heavy SEC, most schools will realize the zero sum gain does not favor top heavy conferences. There can be only one conference champion each year. Texas, OU, Bama, LSU, and UGA cannot win regularly and the lesser teams, TAMU, Auburn, Tennessee, Florida will rarely get a shot at the conference title, and the former mid tier teams will fall to Vandy status.

Fans and donors, especially big donors, will not be content with few and far between conference championships and losing to mediocre performances.

I am leaning towards the bulk of the FBS teams telling the SEC and B1G to split off and they cannot play the remaining FBS teams. This would force the SEC and B1G to the above realization. Without the other conferences, the mid tier and bottom tier teams will feel the heat immediately and the top tier teams will see even their records are no longer padded with the few easy nonconference games they enjoyed to pad their records.

Essentially, they slice their own throats because the fans and donations will fall off.

I think there are enough wise people in the SEC and B1G to avoid what could happen, which explains Sankey’s desire to keep all of FBS in the overall fold, though he obviously wants to maximize revenue for the SEC. I think he knows that a small elite league is just NFL lite and will turn off most CFB fans, as most schools will be cut out of the NFL lite league. Further, an elite league will garner governmental eyes, especially if big states are left out, I.e. NY, VA, NC.

And we can never forget the impact of the networks. The money men will not be happy losing revenue when the non-NFL lite league teams stop watching the B1G and SEC games as they have no basis or interest in them.

Regardless, the SEC and B1G are in the driver’s seat for now but without the remaining conferences to victimize, they lose power. The next few years in CFB will be interesting.

Somewhat agree.
I recently saw an ad for MLB, a sport I've pretty much walked away from years ago. There's no denying that the sport has its fans, who unlike me still watch and are interested, but I submit it's nowhere near where it used to be.
But frankly, I don't think the teams, players, and fans really care. They still have their Tv contract, players get paid handsomely, and franchise values skyrocketing.
That's how I see cfb morphing into- a sport that's viewed by a healthy niche made up of fans largely from the P2. Not nearly the popularity of the past, but enough to sustain the sport...and the money.
As for the P2, they will never give up their hold on cfb. I agree that if the left-behinds were smart, they'd move on w/out them and make their own path. The inevitable 2-tier split however , is now a foregone conclusion. The real question is whether it'll be a voluntary, or mandatory choice by the left-behinds. JMHO

 

[WoadBlue]

I like that Kent is out there talking about this, regardless of how feasible. Win the fans over with another option outside of B1G/SEC fest.

I think that pair would be very happy utterly destroying everyone else, and then that alone would be able to claim being THE CFB leagues. So this plan, as nutty as it is, is at least a way to battle the evil alliance between the BT and SEC.

 

[WoadBlue]

It will be an interesting balancing act - will they really think with their brains, or their short-term wallets?

Frankly, I'm not betting on 'smart'.

Is it true that Sankey is a Syracuse alum? He is one slimy, uber greedy, endlessly devious son of a bitch.

 

[orange79]

Is it true that Sankey is a Syracuse alum? He is one slimy, uber greedy, endlessly devious son of a bitch.

No, but he's from a suburb of Syracuse (Auburn), and went to Cayuga CC and then SUNY-Cortland.

 

[HtownOrange]

It will be an interesting balancing act - will they really think with their brains, or their short-term wallets?

Frankly, I'm not betting on 'smart'.

Agreed, I would not put money down on smart.

Like teenagers taking advice from parents, too often the teen believes they know better and will choose the shiny, glimmering gold tone option over the fundamentally sound and prudent option.

But I can still hope intelligence will prevail...

 

[FloridaCuse]

I think that pair would be very happy utterly destroying everyone else, and then that alone would be able to claim being THE CFB leagues. So this plan, as nutty as it is, is at least a way to battle the evil alliance between the BT and SEC.

But not sure the B1G presidents would want to destroy every else. SEC presidents might. It won't be up to the commissioners.

 

[FloridaCuse]

No, but he's from a suburb of Syracuse (Auburn), and went to Cayuga CC and then SUNY-Cortland.

His Wikipedia page says he has a master degree in education from SU. Says he earned in 1993 while working for Utica College which was part of Syracuse University until 1995.

 

[oldpinepoint]

His Wikipedia page says he has a master degree in education from SU. Says he earned in 1993 while working for Utica College which was part of Syracuse University until 1995.

Has a place in Skaneateles I believe. kcsu can verify

 

[FloridaCuse]

Has a place in Skaneateles I believe. kcsu can verify

I know he at least visits there in the Summer.

 

[WoadBlue]

Putting myself in the power brokers (SEC/B1G, specifically their biggest brands) seat for a moment, they currently have a hammer-lock on the situation. It's like a real life game of Monopoly, and they have all the developed properties. All they have to do is wait it out and with a few more trips around the board, the other conferences will collapse and they'll get their pick.

The SEC has 16 members, and if they had their druthers they would probably give up Vandy and that's it? The B1G has 18, but they'd probably lose a few more - maybe Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern?

How many more programs would be ~median programs in those conferences, value wise? You could at least make a case for 15-20 more schools: Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia are the obvious ones in my opinion, in no particular order. After that it's (again no particular order) Utah, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Houston, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Kansas State, Arizona, Arizona State.

So why go from 34 to 70? Why share the pie with Boston College, Wake Forest, Baylor, UCF, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Washington State, Oregon State, etc, etc?

The current path is to pick off the 10 to 20 schools they actually want, then try to find a way to shed the deadweight if possible - likely by making payouts skew for performance and try to turn programs like Rutgers and Vanderbilt into a financial mess.

In order to change the path, you have to find a way to peel off the support of schools like Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, etc. So you have to give them the two things they want: more of the money relative to even the other B1G/SEC schools and a way to drop the dead weight in their conferences.

So it's got to be a tiered system that has a top tier of ~20 programs getting the most money. In order to be palatable enough to get a deal done, this has to be promotion/relegation based, while leaving those types of schools highly confident they're never getting demoted. Part of it would probably be record based on some sort of rolling basis, part might include automatic exemption to that level for anyone who's appeared in a national title game the previous five years, or won one the previous 10.

Those 20 programs split into two "divisions" each year, and only play within their divisions - top four in each make the playoffs.

The next tier gets ~50 programs, split into geographical divisions, no demotion for these programs, but you can be promoted to the top tier. You're looking at maybe six divisions. Add one, non-permanent, based on the promotion/relegation model. So now you've got seven divisions. Each winner is in the playoff, plus a wild card (or two if you have 5+1 instead of 6+1.

The next tier is the rest of the current FBS, trying to get promoted.

I think there's a viable path to something like this, with the powerhouses allying with the schools trying to preserve their seat at the table to make the bottom ~half of the SEC/B1G take a haircut.

Other than helping the blue bloods on the football side get a bigger piece of the pie than they already have sooner than they're otherwise going to have it (and without looking as greedy), I don't see how you convince them not to stay the current course.

I think you have described well what the most wealthy football programs in BT and SEC want long term. They at heart are no longer college athletics department programs: they are almost independent pirates whose morals system is that if you can get away with it, it then is right to have been done.

The only way to fight those two leagues from making this any worse is for the rest of us to ally. It is only us who need to think in terms of forging an alliance that will have a relegation system to prop up 2 leagues, with states bordering the Mississippi as the basic dividing line (thus, Memphis ands Southern Miss and Tulane would be assigned West while UAB, Troy, and South AL would be assigned East. Our leagues will then have the novelty of relegation to help draw ever new interests. It could not match what the BT and SEC have but it would keep the better programs still alive and kicking and not forced inBT or SEC, thereby helping a large number compete.

And to start something like that, the ACC, for example, probably has to do its part by agreeing that while it will be the 'Eastern' of the pair, it will have BC and Wake start in the league below and thus have to earn their way back u. And each Major conference would need two beneath it. Each year, the bottom 4 of, say, ACC go down, while the top 2 of each feeder league in the East go into the ACC. Same pattern in the West.

The only other option worth exploring is to get the top athletics departments in terms of revenue and potential success in the 2 revenue sports in the Big 12 to become part of a greatly expanded ACC, which would then be the 3rd and final league of a Top Tier. For that to happen, either the ACC must be freed from ESPN or else ESPN allows a partner (say Amazon Prime) to buy into ESPN and also serve as the main showcase for this new super sized ACC of up to 24.

And there is no way that that ACC could stat with all 17 we now have as members. I see no way, for example, how Wake and BC can remain in anything designated Major or Power for more than a couple more years.

 

[WoadBlue]

But not sure the B1G presidents would want to destroy every else. SEC presidents might. It won't be up to the commissioners.

BT ADs do want that. And always have. And you shoudreclal that it was BT ADs that invited PSU< BT Presidents then put the breaks on and said NO, and behind the scenes over a week or so the ADs and boosters and media people persuaded the Presidents to canoe their votes. Same will happen going forward.

 

[WoadBlue]

His Wikipedia page says he has a master degree in education from SU. Says he earned in 1993 while working for Utica College which was part of Syracuse University until 1995.

I had read online an SEC guy say that Sankey was a Syracuse grad and had made it well known he would destroy Syracuse in a split second if his employer wanted that done.

 

[pokercuse08]

I think you have described well what the most wealthy football programs in BT and SEC want long term. They at heart are no longer college athletics department programs: they are almost independent pirates whose morals system is that if you can get away with it, it then is right to have been done.

The only way to fight those two leagues from making this any worse is for the rest of us to ally. It is only us who need to think in terms of forging an alliance that will have a relegation system to prop up 2 leagues, with states bordering the Mississippi as the basic dividing line (thus, Memphis ands Southern Miss and Tulane would be assigned West while UAB, Troy, and South AL would be assigned East. Our leagues will then have the novelty of relegation to help draw ever new interests. It could not match what the BT and SEC have but it would keep the better programs still alive and kicking and not forced inBT or SEC, thereby helping a large number compete.

And to start something like that, the ACC, for example, probably has to do its part by agreeing that while it will be the 'Eastern' of the pair, it will have BC and Wake start in the league below and thus have to earn their way back u. And each Major conference would need two beneath it. Each year, the bottom 4 of, say, ACC go down, while the top 2 of each feeder league in the East go into the ACC. Same pattern in the West.

The only other option worth exploring is to get the top athletics departments in terms of revenue and potential success in the 2 revenue sports in the Big 12 to become part of a greatly expanded ACC, which would then be the 3rd and final league of a Top Tier. For that to happen, either the ACC must be freed from ESPN or else ESPN allows a partner (say Amazon Prime) to buy into ESPN and also serve as the main showcase for this new super sized ACC of up to 24.

And there is no way that that ACC could stat with all 17 we now have as members. I see no way, for example, how Wake and BC can remain in anything designated Major or Power for more than a couple more years.

The issue with that is that right now the ACC schools' interests are split if their choice is continue the current path or veer off into permanent second-tier status, while preserving a relatively strong second tier. It's still the second tier. FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA know they are going to get into the top level, so they'll be opposed to that. Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt, and NC State can all make a somewhat compelling case that they'll make the cut, and if not they'll be near the top of the second level. Duke probably thinks they'll be a package deal with UNC, and Virginia Tech may convince themselves of the same with UVA. SMU probably thinks if enough time passes, it can make the top tier (I agree with this thinking). So BC, GT, and Wake might be for this plan.

So, I don't think you'd be able to get an alliance within the ACC for that. Also keep in mind that if the top two leagues end up with ~35 teams, that's 770 starting positions. There are a couple hundred slots in the NFL draft. The overwhelming majority of players with NFL potential will end up in the top two leagues that pay players, and the FBS level will be a feeder system where the ones who slip through the cracks prove that and then transfer.

As a Syracuse fan, I'd roll the dice on staying in the top tier over guaranteeing second tier status.

 

[FloridaCuse]

I had read online an SEC guy say that Sankey was a Syracuse grad and had made it well known he would destroy Syracuse in a split second if his employer wanted that done.

I have little doubt. The only way the SEC would have any interest is if they thought it was to their advantage to expand into the northeast. But there's been no hint of that I believe.

 

[dasher]

No, but he's from a suburb of Syracuse (Auburn), and went to Cayuga CC and then SUNY-Cortlan

He does have a Syracuse degree. He got it in 1993. I think it is a Masters in Education.

 

[0.2 YNdeeR]

No, but he's from a suburb of Syracuse (Auburn), and went to Cayuga CC and then SUNY-Cortland.

He's gone downhill ever since he left CNY, on the way throwing the book at JB and then, hypocritically, becoming commissioner of that bastion of cheating and academic duplicity - the SEC. What a career.

 

[Newhouser]

He's gone downhill ever since he left CNY, on the way throwing the book at JB and then, hypocritically, becoming commissioner of that bastion of cheating and academic duplicity - the SEC. What a career.

I guess that is true - as is I guess he has changed the face of college athletics and deftly moved his employer to the top of the food chain during a transformative process that is going to lead to a number of schools being cut off from the $ train.

Of course those left behind were only lagging because of their refusal to cheat and their dedication to academic excellence.....it certainly had nothing to do with lack of vision.

 

[RandygoCuse]

If they could find a way to make it work, it would put pressure on Notre Dame to join a conference. Also, I wish there were 11 teams per conference so you play a balanced schedule. But I think putting 77 in the leauge would allow some weak teams in on a permanent basis.

 

[TampaLaker]

Has a place in Skaneateles I believe. kcsu can verify

I can tell you that they have a place on the lake a little ways down; they have 200 stairs down to the lake from their house.