The problem is a major conference team would get raped by the media for that OOC schedule
Its not a great schedule, but let's not pretend its a Pittsburgh level schedule. One can argue that Wichita St needs to schedule even better OOC because of its poor conference schedule to prove itself as a #1 seed. That I totally agree with. (Although, people need to realize Wichita St is scheduling to prove itself worthy of an at-large not a #1... they are not really cheating the system, this is not a place (i.e top seed lines) they were aiming for in my view)
But to say the Wichita OOC was horrid by major school standards is stretching it
Let's start with the OOC SOS numbers:
KP SOS - 106
RPI - 37
I realize limitations in pure SOS numbers as it sometimes could be impacted by a few extra games against low level competition. But other schools have played worse or similar in or near top 25( Louisville, Iowa, Ohio St, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Cincy, SMU)
I'm pretty confident that there are at least 15 other teams that could pretty easily be undefeated against that schedule
No way. Way too high.
Before I get far into this next point, some teams could have 1 loss with the exact same schedule and still be better than Wichita. Certainly luck, and lacking any terrible one-off games, is necessary to go undefeated. It does not mean you are better.
1) Wichita St is expected to be 5-0 vs 51-100, 14-0 vs 100-150 by end of regular season. Nothing that looks outstanding (and it really isn't), but consider other teams in top 25 that have a number of losses vs such teams.
a) Top 25 teams have lost 13 games, 13 GAMES!, against projected Sub 100 Teams - this includes Wisconsin, Duke, Syracuse, Michigan, UCLA, New Mexico, Ohio St, San Diego St, and UNC.
b) Only 8 teams in the country have not had one loss against a projected sub 50 team. And that list includes Wichita and St. Louis. Others are Florida, Villanova, Cincy, Louisville, Iowa and Memphis.
Basically any team is capable of having an off night. Running the table vs sub 50 teams is not easy. Other than Wichita we have 7 teams this year.
And I know some will state those other teams must have many more 51-100 games. Here are top 20 RPI teams teams, with no sub 100 losses, and a 51-100 loss, for the sake of comparison.
Wichita St 5-0
Arizona 5-1
Kansas 6-1
Creighton 7-2
Kentucky 11-2 (many more games, but 2 losses)
Iowa St 3-1
Virginia 7-2
Michigan St 3-2
Let's assume in a given year we have 8 teams that run the table vs 50-200 level teams - whomever those may be. Play the season over, it may be a totally different 8 teams.
An undefeated team will also have more pressure in all the games.
2) So we have 8 survivors vs sub 50 games. And consider the diversity of those teams that did it this year, Those teams now have to run the top 50 teams.
At St. Louis
N BYU
Winning at St. Louis is not easy, and let's remember its not the 8 best teams in the country that survived the sub 50 games in any year. I think its fair to say this is a 50/50 chance.
The more logical range, with data analysis (rather than a half assed assertion), is 3 to 6 teams (including Wichita St) may be undefeated with the Wichita St schedule.
Once again, Wichita St is not better than all the teams that have lost a game to a 51-200 opponent. Luck, and avoiding that off-night, is a big factor in going undefeated.
I thought Gonzaga should have been a 2 last year they have the name to schedule better and they didn't.
Gonzaga scheduled a poor OOC last year? Not sure how you can say that.
JORDOO - I would like to see any data that you have that supports "easily 15" teams would go undefeated. At a bare minimum, consider that 10 teams in the top 25 have lost to a sub 100 team this year.
As a final point I am not saying that Wichita St would go undefeated or close to it in a major conference schedule.
