Conference realignment endgame

[SmilinBob]

There are so many different scenarios and counter moves once a school makes a jump that it's difficult to get a solid read on what's going to happen. Missouri has the ball right now and looking at the flow chart of what could happen after they make their decision it could get quite interesting to say the least.

Missouri stays in Big 12 BYU is added to make it 10, Big 10 losses Missouri for now but still has them as a potential. Missouri jumps to the SEC and the B1G losses them and has to look at Rutgers but they might make a strong pitch to Texas to go with ND if the Irish want to go there. Would the B1G go after TT or Rutgers if Texas goes and ND stays indy or goes to the ACC?

SEC counters with either WV and/or they go after 1 to 3 ACC teams.

If SEC takes 2 out of the 3 VTech, FSU or Clemson from the ACC, the ACC goes and gets UConn and Rutgers and is at 14, ND now has a harder choice to make w/indy being less likely.

If it's just WV to SEC, things settle down and the BE adds ECU, UCF and Temple/Memphis while UConn and Rutgers continue to fill out applications.

ND now sees WV gone as well but may still want to make BE basketball wise work to keep football independence.

Funny thing is looking at this, ND could benefit from FSU and VT leaving and then join the ACC, better chance to win an AQ while having more say football wise.

If ND wants a more powerful football conference they join ACC now or go to the B1G and the B1G adds Missouri (who wants to go there first and foremost) and ND. Does ND really want to play in a powerful football conference? Maryland and Virginia are also possible B1G targets.

ND to B1G and ACC adds UConn and Rutgers and since Missouri is gone Big 12 adds Louisville and if they want to go to 12 TCU (which I doubt cuz Texas doesn't want them) USF, Cincy or Bosie (if they can fix their academics) Problem now might be OU and Texas and how happy they would be with this. Texas has the options of going to the PAC, B1G or SEC and OU the PAC or SEC. The PAC will not take OU and OSU without Texas. The SEC would be out if they already went to 16.

If VT and FSU left, it might be possible to get Louisville and UConn to the ACC and that would solidify the ACC as #1 basketball wise but obviously lose a lot football wise. To be honest, Temple and Rutgers also for 16 would seal up the east coast. My question, can SU, Pitt and maybe UConn seal up NJ and Philly? I understand they won't stop the ND and the rest that have a lot of pull there but it would be a solid influence and possible strong hold in the area or would it be overkill?

What I get out of this, the BE has hit an iceberg and is sinking. The Big 12 will remain in a lifeboat and could be saved but we don't know if it will in time.

 

[Cusefan95]

We need to eliminate the autobid in college basketball anyway. It generally doesn't work for the lower 4 seeds, and when it does, it doesn't happen enough to matter. It's absolutely unfair to the bigger programs who get beat up in the superconference, but would easily crush the lower conference teams.

I think they should break away from the lower conferences, & let those other conferences have their own national championship. They would actually have a better chance of winning one.

As I said, I don't think South Carolina upsetting UCLA will move the needle; part of the appeal of the NCAA tournament is the huge upsets. Yes, they don't happen often...but if they did, they wouldn't be huge upsets, would they? The conference championship game for the low majors are exciting as well, in part because they are playing for a shot to be David, and from the administration's viewpoint to get exposure on TV that is worth hunders of thousands of dollars...for free. Almost nobody knows who who the FCS championship or the DII basketball championship; your proposal would just create another meaningless level for people to ignore. In short, you have a proposal in which all the key players - the big conferences, the small conferences, TV, and the vast majority of fans interested in the NCAA tournament - would lose. So I doubt it'll happen any time soon.

 

[BlazeOrange]

Short-term, all we're looking at is the SEC getting a 14th to even their divisions and the ripple effect as conferences backfill from that change. After that, it is ALL about Texas and Notre Dame. Every BCS conference has designs on one (or both) of them and no one is going to max out at 16 until those biggest of fish select a pond for the long term. As long as the Longhorn Network and Irish independence remain dealbreakers, the SEC (ideal scenario is UT and Oklahoma if they can separate OSU from the deal, or UT and an ACC school if they can't) and ACC (will hold out for ND and whoever ND wants) will stay at 14, while the B1G (has dreams of getting both UT & ND) and Pac-12 (we've seen their offers) will keep those extra spots open to accomodate their target teams and their alliances.