Cuse Football win probabilities per FPI.

[David332]

True. But ND is in a different stratosphere than Louisville.

They got upset by Marshall and lost to Ohio State - but why are people acting like they stink and are going to just quit on the season or something? They’re probably the 2nd/3rd most talented team on our schedule. They’re leading UNC on the road.

If we’re relatively healthy I think we have a shot at home, but I don’t know about it being a 50/50 toss up type game.

Their offense is looking lousy this year and our D is our strength. I think matchup wise it’s a good one for us. Though I do see they just put up 24 in the 2Q.

 

[FloridaFan]

Idc what FPI says no way we’re not underdogs against NC State with Vegas.

FPI takes a look at stats. Those are the numbers and simulations

 

[David332]

FPI takes a look at stats. Those are the numbers and simulations

But who is behind it? Is it like the old BCS computer?

 

[OrangeDW]

I think ND will improve as the season goes but even though their program has been so strong they may have an off year and that gives us a window of opportunity. Should be interesting

I think our pass D will be tough against pretty much everybody not named Purdue. Will be a matter of, can they pound us on the ground? If not, we could win a rock fight.

I don’t feel real good about our offense doing a whole lot against teams with big time size and speed at this point though, but maybe we’ll figure out how to get the ground game rolling by that point? We’ll need it.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We will have a better idea heading into NC State week. As of now...

NC State
Positives: at home, they have no O, they could be banged up
Negatives: they have a good D

Clemson
P: no O, D looks worse without Venables, let down after FSU?
N: on the road

Notre Dame
P: at home, no O, no motivation if bad record?
N: good D

Pitt
P: we owe them a L eventually, their 5 prior games are bad teams so won't be tested
N: on road, good D, we never beat them, will be on a high (7-1?)

FSU
P: at home
N: lots of athletes

Wake
P: we play them well, they are Purdue with no D
N: on road

BC
P: they have no O
N: on road

 

[OrangeDW]

OK, I don’t really get why people are down on Florida State either? They’re 3-0 and destroying BC who I realize isn’t that good, but they aren’t UConn. 24-0 early in the second quarter against any P5 team is tough to do.

I think we’re favored over BC and I’d expect to win that.

I think we’re underdogs against everyone else.

Feels like we’re due to beat Pitt. If this one was at home I’d feel better about it. Seems like they’re usually just freaking bigger than us - if we can hang with them in the trenches we can win that.

Same with Wake - they’re probably a little better than us and they’re home. I’d think we can knock them off at home, but not sure about down there.

NC State, FSU, and ND all have more talent than us and we’ll most likely be home underdogs. Anything can happen in the Dome and we’re certainly no pushovers so we could knock one of them off. But putting these as 50/50 games or even games we’re likely to win seems like a stretch.

Clemson on the road would be one of our biggest upsets of all time.

We have often pulled one upset under Dino - I think we get 1 of those 5 really tough games, and go 7-5 which is very solid and needed. If we somehow get 2 of them and go 8-4, that would be amazing. Huge to have already gotten that Purdue game.

 

[llandz]

ND has beaten us 4 straight times by an average score of 41-18.

I know they’re having a tough year, but it’s hard to see that one as a 50/50 game given where the programs have been the last decade and how the head to head matchups have gone.

Maybe it will be a different ballgame in the Dome, like it was the last time they could be bothered to come up here. I hope.

Didn't I read similar things about our record versus Louisville? Every game and every year is different. This year is different.

 

[GreekFreak]

ND’s tight end is a monster - maybe the best TE in college football. After what Purdue’s TE did to us we better figure out a way to slow this guy down. UNC had no answers for him.

 

[OrangeDW]

Didn't I read similar things about our record versus Louisville? Every game and every year is different. This year is different.

Yeah but….Notre Dame is a lot better program than Louisville.

Honestly if we were only allowed to win 6 this year…..that would be the one I’d most want. In fact I might even be tempted to prefer 6-6 with a win over ND than 7-5 and a loss to ND.

I just think we’ve gotta be realistic and realize that would be an upset if we beat them. This isn’t the 2000’s ND who kinda sucked.

 

[PhatOrange]

My guess right now

W - Wagner 99.8%
L - NC State 61.7%
L - Clemson 15.1%
W - Notre Dame 50.8%
W - Pitt 32.7%
L - FSU 57.4%
L - Wake 48.4%
W - BC 77.7%

Many of these games are toss ups. I think nc state and bc are sure things though but the nc state environment should be big time. Anything can happen.

 

[OrangeDW]

My guess right now

W - Wagner 99.8%
L - NC State 61.7%
L - Clemson 15.1%
W - Notre Dame 50.8%
W - Pitt 32.7%
L - FSU 57.4%
L - Wake 48.4%
W - BC 77.7%

Many of these games are toss ups. I think nc state and bc are sure things though but the nc state environment should be big time. Anything can happen.

I would sign up for that in a heart beat.

Would be THRILLED to beat ND and Pitt.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

the tweet was sent before they updated FPI for SU's game, the performance knocked them down a bit to 4.1-3.9 for the remaining games. it will change again tomorrow after today's games are updated, but it is currently:

Wagner	99.8%​
NC State	56.7%​
Clemson	12.6%​
ND	45.6%​
Pitt	28.3%​
FSU	52.4%​
Wake	43.3%​
BC	73.9%​

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

the tweet was sent before they updated FPI for SU's game, the performance knocked them down a bit to 4.1-3.9 for the remaining games. it will change again tomorrow after today's games are updated, but it is currently:

Wagner	99.8%​
NC State	56.7%​
Clemson	12.6%​
ND	45.6%​
Pitt	28.3%​
FSU	52.4%​
Wake	43.3%​
BC	73.9%​

Dumb algorithm if it knocks them DOWN after a win.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Dumb algorithm if it knocks them DOWN after a win.

Not necessarily. It's taking things into account from other teams.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Dumb algorithm if it knocks them DOWN after a win.

not if they underperform expectations. lets be honest, it wasnt a good win, they were the better team but limped out with a win

 

[HRE Otto IV]

not if they underperform expectations. lets be honest, it wasnt a good win, they were the better team but limped out with a win

The computers had UVA as a really bad team. We didn't perform well so it won't help improve our future probabilities much. In the real world we won the last 2 games. But in the analytics world it hasn't moved the needle much because of our overall statistical performance. All that matters is the W, but the computers put more into how you played as a better indicator of future success.

 

[David332]

That win was ugly but on the other hand, bad teams don’t win games like that. Especially with four turnovers. Only good teams survive games like that.

 

[upperdeck]

a bunch of teams dealing with injuries just like us. Clemson has no DB depth, Clem-Nc st has to knock a bit out of of nc st which is all we can really hope.

NC st plays clem/FSU before we see them,
Clem pays NC st/FSU before we see them

We play them back to back.. after a bye which is as about as good a shape as we can hopefully be