Cuse opens -1 vs NC State.

[cliftonparksufan]

St. Valentines Day massacre. Bring back the Kiss Cam and let's roll these puppies.

 

[jncuse]

I have pick'em on the site I usually bet on in Ontario.

About a point or 2 better for us than I was expecting.

 

[Cuse181]

St. Valentines Day massacre. Bring back the Kiss Cam and let's roll these puppies.

Best .com article ever (comments wise) was the opinion piece on the requested removal of the kiss cam because it made someone uncomfortable - hilarious

 

[Dinkyspond]

Really surprised at that line. Does homecourt really help us that much? I thought for sure the Wolfpack would be at least 3 or 4 point favorites.

 

[Dinkyspond]

This is a little off-topic, we all know about Adam W. but what about the superfan Neil Gold, who always sat behind the bench with his wife and other family members. I believe he owned a mustard and condiment company based in Long Island. I remember reading in Syracuse.com that he bought a retirement home in Syracuse so he could stay here and never miss a game. He was always at home and away games. I don’t believe I've seen him at all this year.

 

[Fat tire 13]

Really surprised at that line. Does homecourt really help us that much? I thought for sure the Wolfpack would be at least 3 or 4 point favorites.

I think I saw in another thread that teams are are scoring 7 points more at home, so it does seem to make a big difference

 

[hoopsupstate]

This is a little off-topic, we all know about Adam W. but what about the superfan Neil Gold, who always sat behind the bench with his wife and other family members. I believe he owned a mustard and condiment company based in Long Island. I remember reading in Syracuse.com that he bought a retirement home in Syracuse so he could stay here and never miss a game. He was always at home and away games. I don’t believe I've seen him at all this year.

I’m pretty sure I saw him on tv at the FSU game.

 

[rrlbees]

This is a little off-topic, we all know about Adam W. but what about the superfan Neil Gold, who always sat behind the bench with his wife and other family members. I believe he owned a mustard and condiment company based in Long Island. I remember reading in Syracuse.com that he bought a retirement home in Syracuse so he could stay here and never miss a game. He was always at home and away games. I don’t believe I've seen him at all this year.

He sits courtside opposite the visitors bench now. I think he’s had health issues though.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Seems like they are like us; scoring from center and backcourt. Their recovering foward of note will have limited minutes. Should be a close game. Will be determined by turnovers and clutch play at the end. Also, important for Jesse to stay in the game. Would be nice if one of our forwards steps up.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Really surprised at that line. Does homecourt really help us that much? I thought for sure the Wolfpack would be at least 3 or 4 point favorites.

i agree ...it doesnt make sense that cuse should be favored over a ranked team even at home if they arent even anywhere near the bubble discussion...just goes to show how the rankings systems are quite arbitrary.

 

[Mstumpy50]

Unranked favorite at home vs. a Top 25 team has been an autobet for 25+ years

 

[jncuse]

Unranked favorite at home vs. a Top 25 team has been an autobet for 25+ years

I ran a fairly quick/rough tabulation the other day (could be off a few either way), but in all games since Jan 1 where a road ranked team has played a home unranked team, the home team is 72-47 (60%) against the spread. Somewhere over 40% of the home teams have won outright. And it would probably be a better % against the spread if I only looked at home favourites in that situation - the situation you have outlined.

I have been betting small amounts on all ranked vs unranked home games since Jan 30, and the current record was 23-15. Maybe not sustainable - I'll stop once it gets down to 55%.

 

[jncuse]

I think I saw in another thread that teams are are scoring 7 points more at home, so it does seem to make a big difference

It was probably my post.
To be clear

approximately 3.5 points advantage at home
or conversely 3.5 point disadvantage on the road.

So Syracuse is 7 points better at home vs NC St as compared to on the road at NC ST. (3.5+3.5)

 

[jncuse]

i agree ...it doesnt make sense that cuse should be favored over a ranked team even at home if they arent even anywhere near the bubble discussion...just goes to show how the rankings systems are quite arbitrary.

It makes sense. In terms of adjusted margin efficiency NC St is #42 in the country - and that is generally the basis for setting lines, not your AP Ranking.

As I told you the other day there would be about 80 teams in the country that would be pick-em or better against NC St at home, since they would have a 3.5 point advantage for being at home. So basically a team at #42 is considered equal to #80-#85 when it is playing on the road.

Anyway, LGO - huge basket Jesse!

 

[CardiacCuse]

It makes sense. In terms of adjusted margin efficiency NC St is #42 in the country - and that is generally the basis for setting lines, not your AP Ranking.

As I told you the other day there would be about 80 teams in the country that would be pick-em or better against NC St at home, since they would have a 3.5 point advantage for being at home. So basically a team at #42 is considered equal to #80-#85 when it is playing on the road.

Anyway, LGO - huge basket Jesse!

these teams are pretty equal..if anything, cuse is the better team...and yet according to every metric, they arent even close...

 

[jncuse]

these teams are pretty equal..if anything, cuse is the better team...and yet according to every metric, they arent even close...

At this point I'm just going to put you on ignore because every one of your comments just ignores my points and data that I have taken time out to carefully demonstrate. Instead you make up more jibberish that is hard to follow.

It will save me some frustration.

 

[CardiacCuse]

At this point I'm just going to put you on ignore because one every one of your comments just blows my mind with jibberish that makes no sense.

It will save me some frustration.

i mean...according to NET, RPI, KenPom, Ap ranking etc...theres a huge gulf between the teams

all of the same metrics that measure success and determine which teams make the tourney and which dont...

and yet...the game is pretty much dead even...if you cant understand why I think that is remarkable...I have to wonder if you are even trying to understand me.

I do appreciate the explanation of the line and why it is what it is, though