Cuse opens up -3 for Pitt

[PauliePeppas]

Popcorn and soda

 

[Alsacs]

I-N-S-A-N-E
I will never bet against Syracuse but that line is stupid. If I loved my wallet more than my team I would drop a stupid large bet on Pitt ML.

I won't though.

 

[Dcuse]

I-N-S-A-N-E
I will never bet against Syracuse but that line is stupid. If I loved my wallet more than my team I would drop a stupid large bet on Pitt ML.

I won't though.

It is shocking.

 

[Cuse House]

We win by double digits and the national championship talk commences. JB is a genius again and his move to go to a 6 man rotation has changed everything. The team loves each other again. Watch it happen, you heard it here first.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Ken Pomeroy's formula would have us favored.

 

[Cuse'91]

News Flash:
Syracuse alumni dominate Vegas sports gambling odds-maker firms.
No other feasible explanation...

 

[GoCuse1979]

I wish I could bet on Pittsburgh without having to kill myself in the morning...

 

[kirbivore]

I-N-S-A-N-E
I will never bet against Syracuse but that line is stupid. If I loved my wallet more than my team I would drop a stupid large bet on Pitt ML.

I won't though.

I never bet any Cuse games, but this has that 2001 SU football +20 at Miami feel to it. I'm telling all my non SU fan degen buddies to bet the house on the other team. The only thing that worries me about this if I did bet Pitt was that Vegas was begging me to take the Panthers, never a good thing.

 

[jncuse]

I apologize for saying the same thing on every odds post but this number was expected. Vegas almost always bases opening odds on some system similar to KenPom Rating.

I don't pay for the premium, but I always look at the net efficiency on his main page, adjust for pace, add home court of 3.5, and I almost always come up within 1 of the opening line. Today it was bang on.

Pitt +13.27 per 100 Possessions
Syracuse +12.66 per 100 Possessions

Advantage Pitt - +0.61 per 100 Possessions
Avg Pace of Both Teams - 68.3

Pitt Favoured by 0.41 points on neutral floor (.61 advantage adjusted to 68.3 possessions)
Add Standard 3.5 Home Point Advantage

Syracuse Favoured by 3.09 points (3.5 + (.41)

But as it does seem like a great number for Pitt I do expect the line to come down to maybe 1.5 by game time.

 

[jncuse]

,,,,,

 

[bevosu]

We win by double digits and the national championship talk commences. JB is a genius again and his move to go to a 6 man rotation has changed everything. The team loves each other again. Watch it happen, you heard it here first.

And Tyler Roberson smiles.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I apologize for saying the same thing on every odds post but this number was expected. Vegas almost always bases opening odds on some system similar to KenPom Rating.

I don't pay for the premium, but I always look at the net efficiency on his main page, adjust for pace, add home court of 3.5, and I almost always come up within 1 of the opening line. Today it was bang on.

Pitt +13.27 per 100 Possessions
Syracuse +12.66 per 100 Possessions

Advantage Pitt - +0.61 per 100 Possessions
Avg Pace of Both Teams - 68.3

Pitt Favoured by 0.41 points on neutral floor (.61 advantage adjusted to 68.3 possessions)
Add Standard 3.5 Home Point Advantage

Syracuse Favoured by 3.09 points (3.5 + (.41)

But as it does seem like a great number for Pitt I do expect the line to come down to maybe 1.5 by game time.

So this means we win by 20.

 

[cuseinseattle]

To be honest I think Pitt -3 would be a stupid line. Syracuse -3. I have no words.

 

[obliterata]

Pitt lost to Duquesne which is considered worse than any SU loss. I think Gillon could give them problems with his quickness.

This is almost as big a game for them as it is us. Lose and they're staring at 1-3, there's no way they're winning their next game at Louisville, the Cards will crush them.

 

[Eric15]

Popcorn and soda

That is very surprising. At home I would have guessed something like Pitt -6.

 

[bballbeadle]

We win by double digits and the national championship talk commences. JB is a genius again and his move to go to a 6 man rotation has changed everything. The team loves each other again. Watch it happen, you heard it here first.

"Some people say that I'm a dreamer . . .
But I'm not the only one."

 

[br801]

To be honest I think Pitt -3 would be a stupid line. Syracuse -3. I have no words.

If it looks too good to be true, either head for the hills or go against your gut instinct.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I never understand why people are surprised about lines. The analytic numbers are public for everyone to see.

 

[jdubs30]

I'd be curious to see how Stallings historically does vs. zones. Artis and company certainly know enough to get off to a solid start - but once we adjust like we always do, how will PItt react? I think we underrating how much of Pitt success vs. us is Dixon related

 

[jncuse]

The line was down at -2.5 this morning, and surprisingly it is now up to -4 for Syracuse.

I was not surprised to see the opening at -3.0, but I am surprised to see it is moving towards Syracuse.

 

[two3zone]

Lines are for the books to make money, not predictive of a score. Their job is to get people to bet the way they want them to bet.

 

[690West]

I never understand why people are surprised about lines. The analytic numbers are public for everyone to see.

Its fun for a lot of people who don't follow sagarin or kenpom. Or they don't care. I enjoy the surprised/ not surprised aspect of the spread threads, even though like you, I pretty much know the opening number based on kenpom and sagarin.

 

[Trueblue25]

Wonder which of you went Judas and bet against our boys on Pitt.

Jamie Dixon's not there anymore but his stench remains. Stay strong.

 

[jncuse]

I do like the Over 144 bet as well. Things are different at Pitt without Dixon.

 

[jdubs30]

Lines are for the books to make money, not predictive of a score. Their job is to get people to bet the way they want them to bet.

Yep. And the fact that it's now at Cuse -4 means more money is on Cuse and Vegas wants people to start takin Pitt with the points