Data shmata, but

[MadNY3]

Our offense is still, technically, top 40 (39th...um, tied with Pitt). Quite a drop since we turned the corner(TM) versus Northwestern. However, scoring offense is 94th. Points matter.

Our D, wow, is 28th in total D, but 59th in scoring.

Both stats indicate massive inefficiencies where good data does not translate to good news on the scoring front.

And then...

• T-115th in turnover margin
• 95th in penalties per game
• 98th in red zone efficiency (higher than I would have thought)
• 116th in net punting
• 117th in punt returns
• 119th in punt return D (thanks Pitt for knocking us out of the bottom!)
• 96th in KO returns
• ...and yet, we're #8 in KO return D

Adding in Krautman going from wonderkid Frosh All-American to know a sub-50% performer, and I really wonder WHAT THE HELL is going on here? Special teams was the one area I thought we would quickly show results, but quite frankly, it is the area we are disasterously horrible in. Through six damn games.
Frustrated.
Damn frustrated.

 

[Millhouse]

Our offense is still, technically, top 40 (39th...um, tied with Pitt). Quite a drop since we turned the corner(TM) versus Northwestern. However, scoring offense is 94th. Points matter.

Our D, wow, is 28th in total D, but 59th in scoring.

Both stats indicate massive inefficiencies where good data does not translate to good news on the scoring front.

And then...

• T-115th in turnover margin
• 95th in penalties per game
• 98th in red zone efficiency (higher than I would have thought)
• 116th in net punting
• 117th in punt returns
• 119th in punt return D (thanks Pitt for knocking us out of the bottom!)
• 96th in KO returns
• ...and yet, we're #8 in KO return D

Adding in Krautman going from wonderkid Frosh All-American to know a sub-50% performer, and I really wonder WHAT THE HELL is going on here? Special teams was the one area I thought we would quickly show results, but quite frankly, it is the area we are disasterously horrible in. Through six damn games.
Frustrated.
Damn frustrated.

scoring and yards aren't perfectly correlated but they're very positively correlated

i suspect our yardage will continue to slide back to scoring and at the end of the year there will be a big gap that will allow upperdeck to talk about a handful of plays and actually have a point this time.

unfortunately it'll converge the wrong direction.

 

[TexanMark]

Special Teams is so important in college.

Rutgers beat us the last two years with blocked FG attempts and scoring TD's off them.

Correct me if I'm wrong but nothing in Marrone's resume suggests he was the right guy to take over one of the three team's pillars (offense, defense , special teams) and succeed in addition to being the head coach.

Let this sink in: Rutgers has scored 10 TD's off 27 field goal or punt blocks since 2009...how many have we blocked under Marrone?

If he doesn't get in a special teams guy in during the off season TGD should fire him for gross incompetence.

I want HCDM to succeed as I think this team is close to being very good and he is a good coach in most other areas...but he needs to fix special teams and red zone inefficiencies.

 

[Ozcuse]

Turnover margin is the single most important of the ones listed. Let me explain.

Rutgers Loss by 8

7 points off of blocked FG return (10 point swing)
6 points off punt return fumble recovery (6 points)
3 points off QB fumble at midfield (3 points, possibly more since we were driving)
killed drive at their 35 when Nassib fumbled, recovered at 50.
killed drive at their 26 when Nassib threw INT (at least 3 points left on the field)

turnovers accounted for 22 point swing.

Pitt Won by 1

7 points left on field when Nassib threw INT in the endzone from the Pitt 9 yard line

Turnovers accounted for 7 point swing.

Minnesota Lost by 7

killed drive at Minn 31 by Nassib fumble on 1st & 10 (at least 3 points left on the field)
killed drive off Nassib INT at Minn 3 yard line (7 points left on the field)
killed drive off Broyld's fumble at Minn 21 yard line (at least 3 points left on the field)

Turnovers accounted for at least 13 point swing

USC Lost by 13

Killed drive at USC 32 by Nassib INT (at least 3 points left on the field)
7 points off Nassib INT, set up short drive for USC TD (7 point swing)

Turnovers accounted for 10 point swing

Northwestern Lost by 1

7 points off Nassib INT at SU 21, set up 1 play drive for NW TD (7 point swing)
7 points off Nassib botched backward pass to Smith, returned for NW TD (7 point swing)

Turnovers accounted for 14 point swing

That's a 66 point swing for those keeping track at home. In each of our losses except the USC game (even then, would have increased chance in winning) it would have been the difference between winning and losing, the Rutgers game and the Northwestern games would have been double digit wins. It's sickening.

 

[Ozcuse]

Special Teams is so important in college.

Rutgers beat us the last two years with blocked FG attempts and scoring TD's off them.

Correct me if I'm wrong but nothing in Marrone's resume suggests he was the right guy to take over one of the three team's pillars (offense, defense , special teams) and succeed in addition to being the head coach.

Let this sink in: Rutgers has scored 10 TD's off 27 field goal or punt blocks since 2009...how many have we blocked under Marrone?

If he doesn't get in a special teams guy in during the off season TGD should fire him for gross incompetence.

I want HCDM to succeed as I think this team is close to being very good and he is a good coach in most other areas...but he needs to fix special teams and red zone inefficiencies.

Marrone's philosophy on special teams is to get rookies/backups in to get game experience. Rutgers philosophy is to get your best playmakers on the field. The results are not surprising.

 

[Noexcuse]

scoring and yards aren't perfectly correlated but they're very positively correlated

i suspect our yardage will continue to slide back to scoring and at the end of the year there will be a big gap that will allow upperdeck to talk about a handful of plays and actually have a point this time.

unfortunately it'll converge the wrong direction.

Yardage has been consistent for the most part. Red zone mistakes, and play calling have been the main culprits in scoring imo. The correlation is a real one, and I think the scoring will move towards the yardage. On the other hand, that doesn't necessarily mean we will see more wins. Limiting the mistakes and improving the play calling in the red zone will help though.

 

[GoSU96]

scoring and yards aren't perfectly correlated but they're very positively correlated

i suspect our yardage will continue to slide back to scoring and at the end of the year there will be a big gap that will allow upperdeck to talk about a handful of plays and actually have a point this time.

unfortunately it'll converge the wrong direction.

Why would you suspect yardage to go backwards? I suspect scoring is going to climb back to yardage.

 

[Crusty]

Why would you suspect yardage to go backwards? I suspect scoring is going to climb back to yardage.

What gives you that idea? The trend is in the other direction.

 

[GoSU96]

What gives you that idea? The trend is in the other direction.

Because of who remains on the schedule.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Our offense is still, technically, top 40 (39th...um, tied with Pitt). Quite a drop since we turned the corner(TM) versus Northwestern. However, scoring offense is 94th. Points matter.

Our D, wow, is 28th in total D, but 59th in scoring.

Both stats indicate massive inefficiencies where good data does not translate to good news on the scoring front.

And then...

• T-115th in turnover margin
• 95th in penalties per game
• 98th in red zone efficiency (higher than I would have thought)
• 116th in net punting
• 117th in punt returns
• 119th in punt return D (thanks Pitt for knocking us out of the bottom!)
• 96th in KO returns
• ...and yet, we're #8 in KO return D

Adding in Krautman going from wonderkid Frosh All-American to know a sub-50% performer, and I really wonder WHAT THE HELL is going on here? Special teams was the one area I thought we would quickly show results, but quite frankly, it is the area we are disasterously horrible in. Through six damn games.

Frustrated.
Damn frustrated.

The thing that's awesome is how much our depth has really turned around special teams play.

 

[rrlbees]

Turnover margin is the single most important of the ones listed. Let me explain.

Rutgers Loss by 8

7 points off of blocked FG return (10 point swing)
6 points off punt return fumble recovery (6 points)
3 points off QB fumble at midfield (3 points, possibly more since we were driving)
killed drive at their 35 when Nassib fumbled, recovered at 50.
killed drive at their 26 when Nassib threw INT (at least 3 points left on the field)

turnovers accounted for 22 point swing.

Pitt Won by 1

7 points left on field when Nassib threw INT in the endzone from the Pitt 9 yard line

Turnovers accounted for 7 point swing.

Minnesota Lost by 7

killed drive at Minn 31 by Nassib fumble on 1st & 10 (at least 3 points left on the field)
killed drive off Nassib INT at Minn 3 yard line (7 points left on the field)
killed drive off Broyld's fumble at Minn 21 yard line (at least 3 points left on the field)

Turnovers accounted for at least 13 point swing

USC Lost by 13

Killed drive at USC 32 by Nassib INT (at least 3 points left on the field)
7 points off Nassib INT, set up short drive for USC TD (7 point swing)

Turnovers accounted for 10 point swing

Northwestern Lost by 1

7 points off Nassib INT at SU 21, set up 1 play drive for NW TD (7 point swing)
7 points off Nassib botched backward pass to Smith, returned for NW TD (7 point swing)

Turnovers accounted for 14 point swing

That's a 66 point swing for those keeping track at home. In each of our losses except the USC game (even then, would have increased chance in winning) it would have been the difference between winning and losing, the Rutgers game and the Northwestern games would have been double digit wins. It's sickening.

That kind of analysis doesn't hold a lot of water because of two things. One, it doesn't account for the same point swing for our opponents turnovers and two, it assumes that we should never have a turnover.

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[TexanMark]

That kind of analysis doesn't hold a lot of water because of two things. One, it doesn't account for the same point swing for our opponents turnovers and two, it assumes that we should never have a turnover.

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Do we get turnovers?

Geez I miss those days.

Anybody have stats on our turnovers? This year feels worse than GRob years for turnover ratio.

 

[Millhouse]

Why would you suspect yardage to go backwards? I suspect scoring is going to climb back to yardage.

I expect our offense to be around 350-360 in conference play based on Nassib being a different guy in conference vs out of conference.

I know that you think that's more coincidence than I do. We'll probably need many more years of data to know for sure and thankfully, we won't get them.

 

[SmilinBob]

I expect our offense to be around 350-360 in conference play based on Nassib being a different guy in conference vs out of conference.

I know that you think that's more coincidence than I do. We'll probably need many more years of data to know for sure and thankfully, we won't get them.

Millhouse you like numbers...do they ever have a plus/minus thing like in hockey? For example...yards gained minus penalty yards + turnovers and the yards they gained on those? And for defense as well?

 

[Millhouse]

Millhouse you like numbers...do they ever have a plus/minus thing like in hockey? For example...yards gained minus penalty yards + turnovers and the yards they gained on those? And for defense as well?

I only like them when they're collected by other people. I don't like having to actually do anything.

cfbstats.com is all i look at. if it's not there, i assume it's not anywhere.

 

[SmilinBob]

I only like them when they're collected by other people. I don't like having to actually do anything.

cfbstats.com is all i look at. if it's not there, i assume it's not anywhere.

Thanks...it just seems that looking at the whole picture would give us a better idea. If it's the offense that is making the mistakes and having penalties subtract those for their totals. SU's d although playing well is what it is (minus penalties) because they don't get turnovers. As for specials...subtract the 75 yard scamper by the field goal block...add all the total yards gained on kickoffs/punts (I giggled as I wrote that) minus penalties and fumbles/blocks. It would be interesting to see what story it tells us.

 

[PhatOrange]

That kind of analysis doesn't hold a lot of water because of two things. One, it doesn't account for the same point swing for our opponents turnovers and two, it assumes that we should never have a turnover.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

Even if you factored in for the other side though then you can still see the basic point which is how crushing turnovers are. Pitt gave up 7 to us with their fumble and our return for a TD. W/o it Pitt wins the game.

 

[PhatOrange]

Marrone's philosophy on special teams is to get rookies/backups in to get game experience. Rutgers philosophy is to get your best playmakers on the field. The results are not surprising.

Marrone has said before about looking at what's worked in the past pointing to Coach Mac, etc., but it would seem he hasn't bothered to look at our special teams from 1988 to 2000. During our peak special teams years Coach P always played starters and best players.

I don't recall who filled in the gaps but just look at the skill guys. Dar Dar, Richardson, Ismail, KJohnson, Spotwood, Shelby Hill, Kyle McIntosh, Michael Owens, Marvin Harrison, Tebucky Jones, Deon Maddox, Jim Turner, Jamel Riddle etc.

I think part of the problem though is we don't have this type of player on the roster.

 

[billsin01]

Our offense is still, technically, top 40 (39th...um, tied with Pitt). Quite a drop since we turned the corner(TM) versus Northwestern. However, scoring offense is 94th. Points matter.

Our D, wow, is 28th in total D, but 59th in scoring.

Both stats indicate massive inefficiencies where good data does not translate to good news on the scoring front.

And then...

• T-115th in turnover margin
• 95th in penalties per game
• 98th in red zone efficiency (higher than I would have thought)
• 116th in net punting
• 117th in punt returns
• 119th in punt return D (thanks Pitt for knocking us out of the bottom!)
• 96th in KO returns
• ...and yet, we're #8 in KO return D

Adding in Krautman going from wonderkid Frosh All-American to know a sub-50% performer, and I really wonder WHAT THE HELL is going on here? Special teams was the one area I thought we would quickly show results, but quite frankly, it is the area we are disasterously horrible in. Through six damn games.

Frustrated.
Damn frustrated.

If Nassib was more clutch and didn't throw the ball so hard and threw a better deep ball, all those stats would be way better. You just don't understand football.

 

[billsin01]

I think part of the problem though is we don't have this type of player on the roster.

It could be part of the problem but I don't remember all the names of the Va Tech kids when they were killing it on specials every year but a little thin on offense. They were great on specials long before they were putting up impressive offensive numbers. There simply has to be some schematic issues going on here, no?

 

[PhatOrange]

It could be part of the problem but I don't remember all the names of the Va Tech kids when they were killing it on specials every year but a little thin on offense. They were great on specials long before they were putting up impressive offensive numbers. There simply has to be some schematic issues going on here, no?

I just don't know how many 'schematics' there are when it comes to special teams. The basics are the same from midgets up to high school - and I would suppose into college.

stay in your lanes, block down (towards the ball) etc.

 

[billsin01]

I just don't know how many 'schematics' there are when it comes to special teams. The basics are the same from midgets up to high school - and I would suppose into college.

stay in your lanes, block down (towards the ball) etc.

I suppose, but it's not like specific teams don't have their own returns, kick/punt block schemes and tendencies, right? There's got to be some measure of sophistication to it. If not, then maybe it's focus and reps in practice? I honestly don't know but I know we have too much talent to be absolutely embarrassed every Saturday. I don't think we should be that bad.

 

[rrlbees]

Even if you factored in for the other side though then you can still see the basic point which is how crushing turnovers are. Pitt gave up 7 to us with their fumble and our return for a TD. W/o it Pitt wins the game.

Absolutely agree that our #1 problem is turnovers. But I was more commenting on the data itself and the points thing.

 

[retro44]

I only like them when they're collected by other people. I don't like having to actually do anything.

cfbstats.com is all i look at. if it's not there, i assume it's not anywhere.

hehehe...and you have a job?

 

[Scooch]

Because of who remains on the schedule.

So if by chance our yardage declines you won't attribute it to the super awesome Big East defenses we're facing?