Deep Dive: SU vs. Minnesota | Syracusefan.com

Deep Dive: SU vs. Minnesota

SWC75

Bored Historian
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
31,972
Like
61,755
I took a deep dive into the stats to see how we compared to big, bad Minnesota. So here is everything on this page:
NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com
I also use the stat page on the college’s athletic websites.

SCORING OFFENSE SU- 28 MN- 28
TOTAL OFFENSIVE YARDS SU- 366 MN - 404
OFFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 236 MN - 267
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 142 MN - 218
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 224 MN - 186
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 14 MN - 14
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 8 MN - 8
OFFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 147 MN - 137
OFFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 61 MN - 61
OFFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 36 MN- 52
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS SU- 198in45 = 4 MN - 237in51 = 5
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 41 MN - 13
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 79 MN - 52
BLOCKED KICKS ALLOWED SU- 2 MN - 2
(I’m assuming blocked kicks are placekicks and added them to blocked punts)

SCORING DEFENSE SU- 23 MN- 13
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 338 MN – 279.5
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 237 MN - 172
DEFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 149 MN - 106
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 189 MN – 174
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 10 MN- 11
DEFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 6 MN- 6
DEFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 130 MN - 109
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 67 MN - 57
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH FOURTH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 41 MN - 31
DEFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS SU- 180in41 = 4 MN - 96in25 = 4
SACKS SU- 30 MN - 12
TACKLES FOR A LOSS SU- 74 MN - 41
BLOCKED KICKS SU -2 MN - 0
DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS SU- 3 MN - 0

KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 27 MN – 21
OPPONENT KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 21 MN – 20.5
KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 23/69 = 33% MN - 6/67 = 9%
OPPONENT KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 16/56 = 29% MN – 20/44 = 45%
PUNT RETURNS SU- 7 MN - 6
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 9 MN - 3
PUNTS RETURNED SU- 21/50 = 42% MN- 9/41 = 22%
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 23/53 = 43% MN- 13/62 = 21%
NET PUNTING SU- 35 MN - 38
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 18/24 = 75% MN – 15/18 = 83%
LONGEST FG SU- 54 MN - 50
40 YARDS + SU- 6/11 =55% MN – 6/7 = 86%
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 0 MN - 0

TURNOVER MARGIN SU- +7 MN +4
PENALTIES SU- 105/772yds MN - 44/393yds
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 27 MN- 35
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- #39 MN- #44
(Everybody has their own system for this: I used this page as a source: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings )
COMMON OPPONENTS:
We beat Purdue 32-29: Minnesota lost to them 10-20 = SU +13
Total: SU + 145 / 7 games = SU +21

I looked at that and there is what it tells me that seems to be in Minnesota’s favor:
- The Golden Gophers were golden on third and fourth downs. We were average. They finished second in the country in 3rd down percent age on both offense and defense and had a 17 % better ranking on third and fourth offense and 10% better on defense.
- Minnesota is the second least penalized team in the country. Wea re the most penalized team in the country. Embarrassing.
- The GG’s achieved 95 more first downs than their opposition. We were -1.
- They returned 16% more of their opponent’s kick-offs than we did and their opponents returned 24% less than ours did.
- Their net putting is +3 yards. That can add up.
- Minnesota only allowed 22% of their punts to be returned for an average of 3 yards per punt.
- Minnesota reached the red zone 26 more times than their opposition did. We were +4.
- Minnesota rushed for 112 more yards per game than their opponents. We ran for 7 less – and that was with Sean Tucker.
- Both teams scored 28 points a game, but the GGs gave up 10 points a game less.
- Their defensive passing efficiency was 21 points better than ours.
- Minnesota only gave up 13 sacks this year. We gave up 41. Maybe it’s just that they play in the Big Ten and there’s less passing. We were -11 in sacks: they were just -1.
- We gave up 79 TFLs, Minnesota only 52. This may be another difference in the Big Ten: perhaps their defenses tend to take fewer chances to make big plays. Instead they keep you in front of them very well.
- Minnesota was second in the country in time of possession and +8 minutes over us.
- Minnesota gained 38 more yards per game than we did and gave up 59 yards less.
- We allowed out opponents to complete 67% of their passes, Minnesota just 57%. Both teams completed 61%, which is the NCAA average.
- Andre Szmyt has had a great career for Syracuse but Matthew Trickett has had a better year, connecting on 83% of his field goals and 86% from 40 yards or beyond to 75 and 55% for Andre.


Our advantages:
- They haven’t blocked any kicks but have had them blocked twice. We’ve blocked two – and had two blocked.
- We’ve score 3 defensive touchdowns. They have none.
- We were second in the country in kickoff returns and averaging 5 yards more than Minnesota did.
- We were +35 in passing yards: they were +12.
- Our offensive passing efficiency was 10 points better than theirs.
- Minnesota only recorded 12 sacks this year. We had 30.
- We were +33 in TFL’s made. Minnesota was #131 – last in the country in this stat.
- - Wea re +7 in turnovers margin. They are just +4.


Of course these numbers were assembled before the portal really opened up. Non-championship bowl teams these days are like minor league baseball teams: you might make the playoffs but you won’t play those games with the team that got you there. So the numbers may not be all that relevant. What is is the sheer number of players who are injured and out for the season, have declared for the draft or entered the portal and will not be playing in this game as a result. From what I’ve read we have 20 such players to their 8. Ours include Sean Tucker, our star running back, our three best defensive backs, two of our excellent linebackers and our best offensive lineman. Minnesota’s QB, Tanner Morgan, missed the last two games because of an injury and his status for this game is unknown. His back-up, Athan Kaliamanis, has extensive experience. Linebacker Braelin Oliver played 12 games with 33 tackles with 1.5TFLs. Safety Jalen Glaze played 10 games. Wideout Chris Altman Bell caught 11 balls in the first three games and has been out since. That hardly compares with what we’ve lost.

I don’t trust that schedule rating and decided to break it down my self. Our 12 opponents were 81-65 overall. These were 71-84. Nine of our opponents went to bowl games. 6 of theirs did. We played 3 ranked teams. They played one. Using my “Against Ranked Teams” point system, we were only +9 but they were -18. The Gophers didn’t have to play Michigan or Ohio State and the one team with double digit wins they faced, Penn State, waxed them 45-17. Our sole double figure opponent, Clemson, had to rally to beat us 21-27 after we had a two touchdown lead. We played a pitiful 1-10 Wagner team but they played a pitiful 0-11 Western Illinois team. They also played the two worst power conference teams in the country, 1-11 Colorado and Northwestern. I think our schedule was significantly more difficult than theirs. I’m just not sure it fully accounts for the obviously superior statistics they accumulated.
 
Great breakdown SWC, and thanks for taking the time to do this detailed analysis. An interesting read, and quite a contrast of teams. Definitely a lot of unknowns for this game, with all the op outs, transfers, etc, especially for us.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
166,448
Messages
4,639,394
Members
5,876
Latest member
CuseinNJ

Online statistics

Members online
212
Guests online
1,089
Total visitors
1,301


Top Bottom