So, we got an intro to this year's team last night and figured it might be a decent time to throw together quick preview with the larger storylines that tend to determine how the season goes. We'll all have our favorite nits to pick and players who should be playing more, etc. But this is an attempt at discussing what I think will be interesting to watch with this team.
Let's start with what we know (at least according to me):
So, on to the questions.
Red has more talent, but can he and the staff make the whole greater than the sum of it's parts?
To me this remains the most salient question. This team needs to know what it is and what it's trying to do both sides of the ball. Our first glimpse of this team was a mixed bag.
The defense played pretty well against Buffalo, but there are still those frustrating moments in terms of team defense. We played better against the high ball screen but still got caught in bad positions on it several times, including late when we left UB's best player (McKenna -- 15 pts in 24 mins; 4 of 6 from three) open on consecutive possessions on simple pick-and-pop plays. UB spent much of the second half inverting their guards and having them post up. I'm OK with living with that and not doubling, but I wouldn't have minded a time out to at least implore those guys to stay on the floor. We went for pump fake after pump fake before Fennell and George each had good possessions defensively and UB became more perimeter oriented. We ran a little press but it was ineffective. We also forced quite a few turnovers but had just 5 steals. I see steals as a result of a team defense that is trying to get players into spots they don't want to be in. I haven't seen us do that much in two years and I didn't really see it much last night.
Offensively, I was a bit more encouraged. Better ball and player movement for much of the first half and some nice pick-and-rolls late. We even got an easy bucket on a set after a time out. Add in a few transition buckets and it wasn't a bad performance. But I'll withhold judgement until I see us sustain quality offense against better competition.
At the end of the day, there is no bigger question on this team than can Red hold his own against quality DI coaches?
Can JJ/Donnie/Nate George be the core of a tournament team?
I know there's a contingent that are dying to see JJ's role a bit more limited but I'd be pretty surprised if he isn't at 30 mpg. I don't think there's any way he's at 23/24 mpg. Same for Donnie and Nate George. So the question is are these guys all-ACC candidates or are they OK, but not at that level? I think George is good and he has the best resume of the group, IMO.
Donnie leaves me wanting more, but I will give him these two things: 1) He has an ability to look pretty bad for long stretches but still put up decent numbers. I mean, the kid averaged 13/8 as a frosh in 14 games and put up 11 and 6 with three assists in 27 mins despite playing what i would call a bad game against Buffalo. And 2) if his shot starts falling (and, yes, I realize everyone wants him around the rim) he could easily become this team's go-to guy.
JJ is probably the biggest question of the group. He's going to score, but can he defend? Can he shoot well? Can he be an overall positive if he has a game where the shots aren't falling? I really don't know. I will say that his biggest challenge defensively is not getting caught flat-footed. Getting beat against a talented opponent will happen to every kid playing man defense in college basketball this year. But JJ has a tendency to get absolutely smoked on straight-line drives, which makes it nearly impossible for help.
Not sure how it plays out but these three are likely the core of this team and how we go likely depends on how well those guys play.
Does this team have enough two-way players?
It seems to me like Souare, White (according to reports), and Kyle will likely be defense-first guys. Kiyan, JJ, Fennell (for however much he plays), and likely Kingz will likely be offense-first guys. So that leaves Freeman, George and Betsey as two-way guys (potentially). And even then, I'm not sure any of the latter three are particularly good defenders. So either White and/or Kyle will likely have to emerge as solid contributors offensively (Kyle looked OK to me despite the FT shooting) and/or Kiyan, JJ, and Kingz will need to be able to hang in there defensively. But that will be a decision for Red if he really intends to play a bunch of these guys in a rotation -- essentially how do you do that and still play at least reasonably decent defense?
I would think, in real games, we'll see Kyle/Souare eat the majority of minutes at C; Freeman at north of 30 mpg at PF; and George logging at least 30 at PG and I would actually think JJ is near that 30 mpg mark too. So can Betsey and Kingz hand enough defensively that we maybe see a lineup with those two and Freeman in a 3-forward kind of thing? Or can Kiyan force his way onto the floor by proving he can hang defensively? Can Fennell hang defensively well enough (and take care of the ball well enough) to be a legit second option at the point? Can White bring enough offensively that he emerges as 20+mpg type guy? Will be interesting to watch.
Can this team take care of the little things?
I would argue the biggest difference between average teams and good teams tends to be how they handle those little things in the course of a game. Some games will always be prettier than others and mistakes will happen. But teams that can stay focused for longer stretches, communicate well, steal a bucket on an in-bounds play, get good looks with quality execution when it matters the most, avoid careless turnovers, execute a good set to stop an opponent's run, execute a well-designed game plan, etc. -- those are the teams that max out whatever their capabilities are.
When you look at the first exhibition, there's no reason to feel that's how the next 30+ games will go, but that game stayed close because of stuff we did to ourselves. We had 17 turnovers, which would be bad against UConn or Duke. We played Buffalo. I'd also argue half of them were unforced. We never run an inbounds play under the opponents basket, but when we actually did once and had a man open, Donnie's pass got picked. When the game got close during UB's run of threes, we left their best player and shooter open due to miscommunication on simple high ball screens twice (luckily he missed the second one).
If this team has aspirations of winning 23/24 games or something like that, Red needs to clean up the little stuff and get these guys on the same page quickly. It can happen, but those little things have been a struggle for 2 years. Need that to change.
That's about it.
Let's start with what we know (at least according to me):
- I'd peg this team as an 18- or 19-win squad at this point. I'm not saying that's exactly where they'll end up but from a talent standpoint, I think that's roughly the range they are in. If some of the below questions are answered in a positive fashion, that number can go up (meaning I think there's some chance it's more of a 23-win group, but I wouldn't bet on it). If they are answered negatively (injuries, in-fighting, a coaching disaster, other unforeseen issues), then I think it could drop to more like 15.
- I'm not certain how great the best players are on this team, but this team roster top-to-bottom is better than any we've had in a while. Will that be enough to put us back in the tournament? Not sure. But we will be better in transition, more capable of getting a good look when we need it, better equipped to hang with opponents defensively. They are simply far more athletic and that will help on both ends.
- JJ/George/Freeman will determine how good this team is. We'll get to questions about these guys, but JJ won't suddenly become a guy who plays 20 mpg and neither will Freeman. George is going to play a ton as well because the only logical replacement is Fennell and I like his game but am not certain he's ready for volume minutes yet. So those three guys need to play consistently well for us.
So, on to the questions.
Red has more talent, but can he and the staff make the whole greater than the sum of it's parts?
To me this remains the most salient question. This team needs to know what it is and what it's trying to do both sides of the ball. Our first glimpse of this team was a mixed bag.
The defense played pretty well against Buffalo, but there are still those frustrating moments in terms of team defense. We played better against the high ball screen but still got caught in bad positions on it several times, including late when we left UB's best player (McKenna -- 15 pts in 24 mins; 4 of 6 from three) open on consecutive possessions on simple pick-and-pop plays. UB spent much of the second half inverting their guards and having them post up. I'm OK with living with that and not doubling, but I wouldn't have minded a time out to at least implore those guys to stay on the floor. We went for pump fake after pump fake before Fennell and George each had good possessions defensively and UB became more perimeter oriented. We ran a little press but it was ineffective. We also forced quite a few turnovers but had just 5 steals. I see steals as a result of a team defense that is trying to get players into spots they don't want to be in. I haven't seen us do that much in two years and I didn't really see it much last night.
Offensively, I was a bit more encouraged. Better ball and player movement for much of the first half and some nice pick-and-rolls late. We even got an easy bucket on a set after a time out. Add in a few transition buckets and it wasn't a bad performance. But I'll withhold judgement until I see us sustain quality offense against better competition.
At the end of the day, there is no bigger question on this team than can Red hold his own against quality DI coaches?
Can JJ/Donnie/Nate George be the core of a tournament team?
I know there's a contingent that are dying to see JJ's role a bit more limited but I'd be pretty surprised if he isn't at 30 mpg. I don't think there's any way he's at 23/24 mpg. Same for Donnie and Nate George. So the question is are these guys all-ACC candidates or are they OK, but not at that level? I think George is good and he has the best resume of the group, IMO.
Donnie leaves me wanting more, but I will give him these two things: 1) He has an ability to look pretty bad for long stretches but still put up decent numbers. I mean, the kid averaged 13/8 as a frosh in 14 games and put up 11 and 6 with three assists in 27 mins despite playing what i would call a bad game against Buffalo. And 2) if his shot starts falling (and, yes, I realize everyone wants him around the rim) he could easily become this team's go-to guy.
JJ is probably the biggest question of the group. He's going to score, but can he defend? Can he shoot well? Can he be an overall positive if he has a game where the shots aren't falling? I really don't know. I will say that his biggest challenge defensively is not getting caught flat-footed. Getting beat against a talented opponent will happen to every kid playing man defense in college basketball this year. But JJ has a tendency to get absolutely smoked on straight-line drives, which makes it nearly impossible for help.
Not sure how it plays out but these three are likely the core of this team and how we go likely depends on how well those guys play.
Does this team have enough two-way players?
It seems to me like Souare, White (according to reports), and Kyle will likely be defense-first guys. Kiyan, JJ, Fennell (for however much he plays), and likely Kingz will likely be offense-first guys. So that leaves Freeman, George and Betsey as two-way guys (potentially). And even then, I'm not sure any of the latter three are particularly good defenders. So either White and/or Kyle will likely have to emerge as solid contributors offensively (Kyle looked OK to me despite the FT shooting) and/or Kiyan, JJ, and Kingz will need to be able to hang in there defensively. But that will be a decision for Red if he really intends to play a bunch of these guys in a rotation -- essentially how do you do that and still play at least reasonably decent defense?
I would think, in real games, we'll see Kyle/Souare eat the majority of minutes at C; Freeman at north of 30 mpg at PF; and George logging at least 30 at PG and I would actually think JJ is near that 30 mpg mark too. So can Betsey and Kingz hand enough defensively that we maybe see a lineup with those two and Freeman in a 3-forward kind of thing? Or can Kiyan force his way onto the floor by proving he can hang defensively? Can Fennell hang defensively well enough (and take care of the ball well enough) to be a legit second option at the point? Can White bring enough offensively that he emerges as 20+mpg type guy? Will be interesting to watch.
Can this team take care of the little things?
I would argue the biggest difference between average teams and good teams tends to be how they handle those little things in the course of a game. Some games will always be prettier than others and mistakes will happen. But teams that can stay focused for longer stretches, communicate well, steal a bucket on an in-bounds play, get good looks with quality execution when it matters the most, avoid careless turnovers, execute a good set to stop an opponent's run, execute a well-designed game plan, etc. -- those are the teams that max out whatever their capabilities are.
When you look at the first exhibition, there's no reason to feel that's how the next 30+ games will go, but that game stayed close because of stuff we did to ourselves. We had 17 turnovers, which would be bad against UConn or Duke. We played Buffalo. I'd also argue half of them were unforced. We never run an inbounds play under the opponents basket, but when we actually did once and had a man open, Donnie's pass got picked. When the game got close during UB's run of threes, we left their best player and shooter open due to miscommunication on simple high ball screens twice (luckily he missed the second one).
If this team has aspirations of winning 23/24 games or something like that, Red needs to clean up the little stuff and get these guys on the same page quickly. It can happen, but those little things have been a struggle for 2 years. Need that to change.
That's about it.
