devito, welch, passer rating, sacks

[Millhouse]

Short version - if chip's said this once, he's said it a thousand times -you need to handle sacks to evaluate the total package. If Devito threw 23 more passes away (which would be good for the team) his passer rating would be the exact same as Welch's

passer ratings of each guy (which doesn't take into account sacks and throws that should've happened but didn't)

Devito 137, Welch 124

137 is close but not quite 2012 nassib. 124 is like 2010 nassib.

Devito completes 64%. Let's say he threw for the same yards tds and ints but threw it away 23 times to avoid sacks. He gets sacked about 23 times a half according to my calculations (My 8 year old pulls phony probabilities out of you know where and says according to my calculations even though he has never calculated anything. Dorkiness has a genetic component)

Anyway, you can probably guess what Devito's passer rating is if he had 23 more throwaways. 124.

I'm totally in favor of using passer rating if you're comparing guys who know enough to take incompletions over sacks as much as possible. But Devito's fatal flaw inflates the stat we usually use.

My kingdom for a site that has a good stat for sacks taken by qbs.

Devito is better with a competent line but with a line this bad, it might be Welch. With a line this bad, who cares, it's not going to work regardless but I have to grudgingly acknowledge it

 

[dollarbill44]

To be fair, TD couldn't throw away all of his sacks. Some of those were nearly instantaneous sacks where the rusher reached TD almost as quickly as the snap. I think you need to comb through the sacks and determine which ones could have legitimately been avoided and use that for incompletions.

 

[Millhouse]

To be fair, TD couldn't throw away all of his sacks. Some of those were nearly instantaneous sacks where the rusher reached TD almost as quickly as the snap. I think you need to comb through the sacks and determine which ones could have legitimately been avoided and use that for incompletions.

to be fair, if he threw away all his sacks, he'd have a completion percentage of 2. this is a back of the envelope calculation, it might be way too high an estimate.

(I agree with you - It just shows how sensitive passer rating is to completion percentage. 23 more incompletions would bring him down to 57% percent which doesn't feel like a huge drop)

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I know next to nothing about how this is calculated, but grumble grumble small sample sizes grumble grumble 94 yard TD skews thing. Right?

 

[Millhouse]

I know next to nothing about how this is calculated, but grumble grumble small sample sizes grumble grumble 94 yard TD skews thing. Right?

take it away and he's austin wilson 84

but i hate to take away a good play, it wasn't like it was lucky

 

[Chip]

take it away and he's austin wilson 84

but i hate to take away a good play, it wasn't like it was lucky

Yep, it was the perfect read and a perfect throw.

I'm not sure he could do it again, but he has to get all the stat credit that comes with it. Small sample size or not.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

take it away and he's austin wilson 84

but i hate to take away a good play, it wasn't like it was lucky

Yep, it was the perfect read and a perfect throw.

I'm not sure he could do it again, but he has to get all the stat credit that comes with it. Small sample size or not.

I'm not saying take it away.

I'm wondering if we believe that his performance would average out to what it is with the benefit of that play.

 

[Chip]

I'm not saying take it away.

I'm wondering if we believe that his performance would average out to what it is with the benefit of that play.

I'm afraid of that answer, so let's hope he gets another big play TD this week of about 80 yards or so.

 

[upperdeck]

If a Qb needs to count to 2 and then throw it someplace, then you get what you get with the QB.. You can barely get 1 read done in the time most of these throws need to be made,

yeah he holds on too long but thats only if you want 1 read and throw it away plays. If the D would just be nice and only do what they show on pre-snap it would help.

We dont even know how many of these are the WR not doing the right thing since all blame is on the QB.

For all we know the Qb is supposed to throw to A and the WR turns to B and at that point the QB says crap its too late to throw it away now..

 

[upperdeck]

I am all for every time we see 1 deep safety coverage to jackson or Harris just heave and pray..

First play of the game friday was a quick read , throw.. just a touch too quick because of course protection breaks down and instead of a TD its a drop


we got a holding on a 1 step drop Wr screen pass.. how is that even possible..

 

[Pyle]

Right now this is simple to me. The TD led offense doesn't move. The Welch led offense scored two TDs and moved the ball much more consistently. Who gives us a better chance to win games? Right now that answer is not TD.

I'd like to add that I don't think Welch is the answer. He clearly doesn't have the arm talent that TD does and is not a starting ACC QB. The fact that he moves the ball and TD doesn't is extremely concerning to me.

 

[Millhouse]

If a Qb needs to count to 2 and then throw it someplace, then you get what you get with the QB.. You can barely get 1 read done in the time most of these throws need to be made,

yeah he holds on too long but thats only if you want 1 read and throw it away plays. If the D would just be nice and only do what they show on pre-snap it would help.

We dont even know how many of these are the WR not doing the right thing since all blame is on the QB.

For all we know the Qb is supposed to throw to A and the WR turns to B and at that point the QB says crap its too late to throw it away now..

i agree. one read, if it's not there then take off offenses are cheap and bad. but probably better than what we have now. i am fine with just tanking this year if i felt like it'll get us anything other than a shellshocked qb.

whole year is a waste. since i like the scheme, i'll just go to sleep and forget it but i get why people who don't like the scheme think it's an excuse to just blame the line and ignore the rest of the year

 

[Chip]

we got a holding on a 1 step drop Wr screen pass.. how is that even possible..

That Pitt defender was coached to try to jump and bat down the WR screen, and he did. I'm not sure if Vetorello was coached to grab his legs and pull him down. But he did.

Sometimes you just have to look at your OL and say what exactly were you trying to accomplish there.

I bet our staff says that a lot.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm afraid of that answer, so let's hope he gets another big play TD this week of about 80 yards or so.

I mean I love when we can tell tall tales about a player but I keep coming back to how consistent the press was that DeVito was head and shoulders the best QB and if we ever had to call on the guys behind him we'd be playing a really limited QB.

Now I'm seeing people calling Welch a dual threat QB and a Bill Braskyesque indestructible panzer of a man and this belief that his willingness to "get the ball out faster" doesn't just erase DeVito's edge in talent but surpasses it, and it leaves me hoping they're right, but... not buying it actually.

 

[Millhouse]

Right now this is simple to me. The TD led offense doesn't move. The Welch led offense scored two TDs and moved the ball much more consistently. Who gives us a better chance to win games? Right now that answer is not TD.

I'd like to add that I don't think Welch is the answer. He clearly doesn't have the arm talent that TD does and is not a starting ACC QB. The fact that he moves the ball and TD doesn't is extremely concerning to me.

i did it fast so i might've screwed it up in the play by play but I have the welch offense going for 6 yards per play. the non welch plays were 2.5

not positive though, did it as fast as i could

 

[Millhouse]

Right now this is simple to me. The TD led offense doesn't move. The Welch led offense scored two TDs and moved the ball much more consistently. Who gives us a better chance to win games? Right now that answer is not TD.

I'd like to add that I don't think Welch is the answer. He clearly doesn't have the arm talent that TD does and is not a starting ACC QB. The fact that he moves the ball and TD doesn't is extremely concerning to me.

nothing good comes from devito playing out the string. he's going to get shellshocked. just play out the string with welch and start over next year. i'm open to grad transfers at QB btw, i'm open to devito getting a take 2 also, whatever.

 

[qdawgg]

I'm not saying take it away.

I'm wondering if we believe that his performance would average out to what it is with the benefit of that play.

Or average out the same over 5 games.

 

[TheCusian]

nothing good comes from devito playing out the string. he's going to get shellshocked. just play out the string with welch and start over next year. i'm open to grad transfers at QB btw, i'm open to devito getting a take 2 also, whatever.

Pitt's D is really good. The rest of the teams are not. I think Dino played it right - Welch vs the #1 sack team in the country due to mobility and size, TD vs the vulnerable defenses left on the schedule. We play Welch vs these teams it's like shooting ourselves in the foot.

 

[Pyle]

Pitt's D is really good. The rest of the teams are not. I think Dino played it right - Welch vs the #1 sack team in the country due to mobility and size, TD vs the vulnerable defenses left on the schedule. We play Welch vs these teams it's like shooting ourselves in the foot.

Welch is not the answer. The fact that the offense moves better with him than it does TD is very troublesome.

 

[TheCusian]

Welch is not the answer. The fact that the offense moves better with him than it does TD is very troublesome.

In one game that was true. a very small sample size vs the 11th ranked D, #1 in sacks. People fawning over his late 4th Q TD while forgetting TD did the same thing the week before.

In other words the #1 ranked team in sacks went against the worst P5 pass protection and a pocket passer and the big guy who looks to run more than pass played ok.

 

[Pyle]

In one game that was true. a very small sample size vs the 11th ranked D, #1 in sacks. People fawning over his late 4th Q TD while forgetting TD did the same thing the week before.

In other words the #1 ranked team in sacks went against the worst P5 pass protection and a pocket passer and the big guy who looks to run more than pass played ok.

If the offense moved well at all against any other P5 team I might be willing to overlook last week. Right now this offense is broken with TD at the helm. BTW, I'm not advocating for Welch over TD, i just don't like what i've seen. Not even a little. Welch has a feel for the game that TD seemingly does not. TD has an ability to throw the ball that Welch does not.

 

[Scooch]

DeVito reminds me a lot of former NFLer Tony Eason. He was shell shocked in the ‘85 Super Bowl, then had a very good 1986. So maybe something like that will happen. Who knows.

 

[TheCusian]

If the offense moved well at all against any other P5 team I might be willing to overlook last week. Right now this offense is broken with TD at the helm. BTW, I'm not advocating for Welch over TD, i just don't like what i've seen. Not even a little. Welch has a feel for the game that TD seemingly does not. TD has an ability to throw the ball that Welch does not.

We had 400 yards of offense vs Maryland (#58). Clemson (#3 ranked D), NC State (#45 ranked D), and Pitt (#15 ranked D) were the other games.

Or if you prefer this, ACC only, based on yards per play:
1. Clemson
3. Pitt
6. NC State

Upcoming:
5. Duke
8. FSU
12. Wake
13. BC
14. Louisville

 

[upperdeck]

I think people look at results and say Welch played better.. But the reality is he hit a home run prayer pass and ran a few times. He also bounced a few throws and held the ball a couple times.

One thing he did do though was say screw it Im throwing to my first read quickly and a few times it worked.

Play calling hurts us the first half. its time to figure out when we are 2nd and 2 just take the first down and stop trying to do too much..

Its pretty clear the offense is broke when every red zone requires trickery and we are trying WR sprint runs inside our own 10.

 

[qdawgg]

But the reality is he hit a home run prayer pass and ran a few times.

I don’t think Welch is a better QB than DeVito but that’s silly way of describing that pass. You make it sound like he heaved it up while falling backwards and it happened to land in a SU players hands. He absolutely benefitted from Pitt not expecting him to try that throw but he threw a perfect ball to the WR. Calling it a prayer pass is silly.