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[QUOTE="HRE Otto IV, post: 4453918, member: 5685"]
How am I dismissing math? I am using math. Going for 2 vs onside kicking is NOT the choice here.

I will make it simple using your numbers (which I do not agree are accurate).

6.4% chance of 45-45 (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4) which is better as you no longer need an onside kick plus moving the ball 25 yards plus kicking a FG.

9.6% chance of 45-43 which is better than 45-42 as you can now win with a FG (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6).

48% chance of 45-42 which is the same score as PATs (0.4 x 0.6 plus 0.6 x 0.4).

36% chance of 45-40 which means you now need a TD instead of a FG, but you do win in that case (0.6 x 0.6).

If you have the time for 3 more drives then you kick the PAT as 36% > 16% (if you are using 40% conversion rate). If it were the 3rd Q then the math says PAT.

However with 10 mins left and 2 TOs there is not enough time to force a punt, go ~65 yards for a TD, force a punt, go ~65 yards for a TD, recover an onside kick, go ~25 yards and kick a long FG. The only realistic way to tie or win the game is by going for 2 and converting 3x. Yes, that is a 6.4% chance but it is better than 0.0%. There isn't enough time for any other scenario.

The numbers change quite a bit at 45% or 50% conversion rates.

40%
36% vs 16%

45%
30.25% vs 20.25%

50%
25% vs 25%
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