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Message: [QUOTE="HRE Otto IV, post: 4453932, member: 5685"] Or to put it another way... Kicking the PAT There is 100% chance (if you have time) that you need an onside kick. And there is a 23% chance (using your number which I don't agree with) of getting the ball there. Going for 2 There is a 6.4% chance (using a 40% conversion rate) you DO NOT need an onside kick. There is a 93.6% chance you need an onside kick, which comes out to 21.5% (0.936 x 0.23). So 6.4% + 21.5% > 23%. That gap is even bigger if you believe the conversion rates are closer to 50% and 15%, vs 40% and 23%. Then you get 12.5% + 13.125% > 15%. [/QUOTE]