Don't Look Now But...

[texascpa]

I feel like we've gotten our hopes up too many times because of positive starts to the season against lesser opposition.

I'm not sure there's much from our WMU game that screamed 8/9/10-win team and the Wagner game, while nice to take care of business, is terribly hard to read.

If we can control the FSU game, maybe I'll let myself start dreaming, but it's gonna be hard for me to get too excited about a huge season before then. Luckily, we've got a down conference this year, so at least it's more possible this year than others.

lol, I totally agree, but I would rather have my hopes up and live in the hype than be a debbie-downer looking for every little thing to complain about.

 

[TheCusian]

I think things have shifted in our favor, but not by as much as the OP suggests. D is still suspect, Wake/NC State/FSU/Louisville still toss ups.

But things are looking up, for sure. 1 game at a time. Let’s get that rare W vs FSU 1st

 

[SouthernCuse]

God damn you people I am falling victim to the possible hype. I'm so nervous/excited. LFGO

Yes, take a shot and try to relax. Saturday will come.
But isn't it nice to be excited about a game in a potentially positive frame?

 

[UnknownOrange]

Yes, take a shot and try to relax. Saturday will come.
But isn't it nice to be excited about a game in a potentially positive frame?

Haha a backstory - I'm the guy in the friend group who constantly will tell you why Syracuse is going 8-4 this year, every year, since 2011

 

[Ringostar57]

We could always go 8-4 every year IF:

 

[JeremyCuse]

I don't think that the board is ahead of itself at all. Especially given what I'm seeing from the likes of UNC, Pitt, Louisville, FSU, etc.

Being excited about the team's prospects is a GOOD thing. When was the last time our program played an opponent like the one we have coming up, and the fanbase felt good about our chances of winning? I'm not talking about orange-goggled hopefulness -- I'm referring to actually feeling a buzz because we see EVIDENCE that we can beat the team. It's been a long time for me.

And this resurgence isn't going to be linear -- as Dino Babers has explained from the beginning. Sometimes you see the team make a jump. We're at the precipice of making one of those jumps if we can win Saturday.

I think what Orange PA is Trying to say is that people looking at the schedule and the first two weeks who are now calling for 9 or 10 wins are getting ahead of themselves when you look at the quality of the opponent of the first two games. I think SU save for the 3rd quarter dominated WMU but some of that momentum was lost when Michigan promptly buried them 49-3 or whatever it was. I thought the Wagner game was a good sign after some of the close calls we have had ie Nova, Stony Brook etc but again I think its clear this SU team is better then those versions who struggled so burying a clearly inferior Wagner team while certainly positive doesn't in my mind foreshadow a highly successful season.

I am not insinuating that we shouldn't root for a 9 or 10 win season or that people can't be excited ( I sure as hell am) but I think people also need to pump the brakes a bit. Now its certainly not everyone but this does feel a bit like after CLemson last year when people were talking about bowl games and running the table and we preceded to lose out. I think if this team can get to 6-6 / 7-5 and really take that next step, it would be huge for a program that coming off back to back 4-8 seasons where we were completely noncompetitive in November. UNC and Pitt clearly have issues and Lville is far from the LVille of 2 years ago so the opportunities are there for the taking especially if Dungey stays healthy and these young guys come on as we think they will. But we also have our own issues at WR, LB and giving up chunk plays/scores on Defense. We will have a much better idea where we stand with those 3 areas after Saturday but the road is there for this team to get to a bowl which is the real goal here.

 

[orangeinjersey]

 

[RF2044]

I think what Orange PA is Trying to say is that people looking at the schedule and the first two weeks who are now calling for 9 or 10 wins are getting ahead of themselves when you look at the quality of the opponent of the first two games. I think SU save for the 3rd quarter dominated WMU but some of that momentum was lost when Michigan promptly buried them 49-3 or whatever it was. I thought the Wagner game was a good sign after some of the close calls we have had ie Nova, Stony Brook etc but again I think its clear this SU team is better then those versions who struggled so burying a clearly inferior Wagner team while certainly positive doesn't in my mind foreshadow a highly successful season.

I am not insinuating that we shouldn't root for a 9 or 10 win season or that people can't be excited ( I sure as hell am) but I think people also need to pump the brakes a bit. Now its certainly not everyone but this does feel a bit like after CLemson last year when people were talking about bowl games and running the table and we preceded to lose out. I think if this team can get to 6-6 / 7-5 and really take that next step, it would be huge for a program that coming off back to back 4-8 seasons where we were completely noncompetitive in November. UNC and Pitt clearly have issues and Lville is far from the LVille of 2 years ago so the opportunities are there for the taking especially if Dungey stays healthy and these young guys come on as we think they will. But we also have our own issues at WR, LB and giving up chunk plays/scores on Defense. We will have a much better idea where we stand with those 3 areas after Saturday but the road is there for this team to get to a bowl which is the real goal here.

Look, I understand that this program has been downtrodden, and why some choose to be skeptical. But progress isn't always linear. We don't have to first be 6-6, then get to 7-5 and build from there the way some are insinuating. This schedule is shaping up to be a little bit more inviting that originally expected--now we need to opportunistically capitalize.

As long as Eric Dungey is able to play, this team is going to have a damn good chance to win games. ESPECIALLY with a better OL and improved depth. We've been on the receiving end of some teams "peaking" a little bit ahead of our improvement curve the past couple of years -- NC State, WF, Louisville, etc. Well, now we're on the cusp of hitting our stride while some of those programs are not quite as good. I think some are gunshy to predict success against our peer programs, because we haven't performed well against them for a LONG time. But that has to change, and it can change beginning this year -- easily.

I think you're assessment of WMU / Wagner is spot on. In years past, we struggled against the likes of Stony Brook, Villanova, Toledo, etc. and should have lost at least two of those games. If not for the inexplicable decision to sit Dungey for an extended period against WMU, we tack on a few more scores and that comeback probably doesn't go down the same way. These two games basically went as planned by the staff, and we didn't incur any injuries. We kept things vanilla, and now will hopefully be able to come out and punch a struggling team in the mouth on Saturday.

Again, I understand why people are choosing to take a wait-and-see approach, but I think that the OP is 100% spot on. The fanbase will come around, especially if we win against FSU.

A bowl is the goal -- no question. But if we can go to an even better goal, it is only going to jumpstart things even more.

 

[rrlbees]

i'll stick with 6-6 until proven otherwise.

 

[GoSU96]

Here's a reality check on the whole FCS thing.

Last five prior FCS games.

2013 Wagner 54-0, finished 7-6
2014 Nova 27-26 OT, finished 3-9
2015 URI 47-0, finished 4-8
2016 Colgate 33-7, finished 4-8
2017 Central Conn 50-7, finished 4-8

 

[IthacaMatt]

FPI has Syracuse favored in 5 of the next 6 games.

I really think this could be a special year and now the schedule is opening up.

I know it's hard to gauge performance vs Wagner, but we did to Wagner what we haven't been able to do in previous year vs FCS squads.

Our ST's are looking elite.

DL is very good and can create pressure from the edge.

Defense is creating turnovers for the first time in i don't know how many years.

Defensively there is a ton of young talent that will only get better with experience as the season progresses.

Offensively we have that rare 4 year starting QB who is at his best against elite competition. He is that game changer that can single handily keep you in games when other parts of the game break down.

While we may not have that elite go to WR a la AET and Ish, Custis should be a just a step below their production. The difference is the large pool of super talented, young WR's that can serve as a receiver by committee to compliment Custis. Nykeim Johnson can develop into that big time home run threat. The key will be Butler. He consistently wins at getting open. Now if he can ever figure out how to catch the bowl the offense will only be that much more deadly.

Mostly this schedule is opening up where it can be exploited. We have proved to be a successful home team under Babers.
FSU is down, no confidence, and come to the Dome for a noon game.
UConn may be the worst G5 team in the country
Clemson will most likely be a loss
@Pitt who looks like they don't have a QB and will have a down year
UNC who will be the dregs of the ACC, who also don't have a QB
NC ST lost most of their playmakers and aren't nearly as explosive, while having a below avg defense.
@Wake will be tough, but this is a team with equal talent
Louisville (also favored by a large amount by FPI) at the Dome on a Friday night where we always seem to win. QB imo is not good at all
ND @ Yankee stadium. Wimbush is suspect. Just struggled to beat Ball St at home
@BC it's not like we will be out talented. 1 dimensional

We are so due to have a year where we stay mostly healthy and have a break out year. I wouldn't be shocked to see us get 9 wins and a bowl. I would be pretty disappointed with anything less than 7 at this point.

It's there for the taking

We've said this several times in recent years, and then there's a Wake game, or an NC State game, or a UNC game. I mean, we can't count on any games as sure things, or even likely wins, until we win on Saturday. This is when belief becomes reality, starting with this game.

 

[RMH44]

lol, I totally agree, but I would rather have my hopes up and live in the hype than be a debbie-downer looking for every little thing to complain about.

Great points. All one has to do is go back and read any game thread to realize how many "debbie-downers" and "chicken littles" post here.

Hopefully this is the year that uplifts the fans and initiates positive vibes and optimism.

 

[texascpa]

Great points. All one has to do is go back and read any game thread to realize how many "debbie-downers" and "chicken littles" post here.

Hopefully this is the year that uplifts the fans and initiates positive vibes and optimism.

I was reading the Wagner game thread Sunday morning. By the posts you would have thought we were losing through page 10 or so.

 

[RMH44]

I was reading the Wagner game thread Sunday morning. By the posts you would have thought we were losing through page 10 or so.

The usual suspects acting like petulant children when amateur athletes don't play to their expectations.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Agree.

I still have a lot of concerns about this team. I'm not convinced we have a RB who can average 4.0 YPC agaisnt ACC opponents. .

Oh, I think we do. He didn't get in until late, but I liked Howard a lot. That young man hits the hole hard.

On the linebackers and the deep coverage, I'm with you. We are currently vulnerable and have to get better fast.

Our O line should have shown a bit more, but hopefully the chemistry comes together soon.

But, gosh, Howard looks like a power back. Run him and Neal out there, and save Strickland for the slot or wheel routes out of the backfield as a third down back.

 

[anomander]

ESPN Football Power Index - 2018 - ESPN

Current projected record of 7-5

Not sure how you calculated... I see 3 of the next 6 with a higher FPI..
Clemson #5
NC State #42
FSU #45
Cuse #51

Syracuse 2018 FPI - Orange - ESPN

5 out of 6

This factors in home/away

Revisionist history at best. Wagner went to OT last year with Central Conn State. We beat Central Conn State by a score of 50-7. Saying we haven't done this before is flat out wrong, we did it last year before finishing 4-8. We did ok against WMU but UM put a real beatdown on them. That's what we should be looking at, not Wagner. Michigan annihilated the Broncos, we did not. Book is still out. This Sat is huge.

No, it's not wrong. It is exactly how i said.

We won 50-7 vs CCSU, but didn't look all that good doing so. We couldn't run the ball for nothing(3.8 ypc) and we didn't convert in the RZ, and settled for 4 FG's (plus missed 1). Defensively, we only created 1 turnover, a fumble recovery, while only totaling 1 sack. ST's did what a ST unit is supposed to do vs inferior competition and that is dominate.

This hard a far different feeling then CCSU last year, and certainly Colgate the year before. This offense is clicking at a higher volume and i still say the defense has improved and will only get better with the young talent they have contributing.

As for WMU, we annihilated them when our starters were in. Not to mention playing the opening game at their place is much harder than them going to the big house .

 

[007]

I fault no one for thinking we can get to X number of wins. You could be right. I don't know yet how good the D is or isn't. It's great to be 2-0 with a real shot of beating FSU. That's what I know.

Can we cover the athletes that FSU has in spades? Do we have the speed to get to the edge in run support? Can we get enough from the inside run game on O? We will know a lot more after Saturday.

 

[texascpa]

Here's a reality check on the whole FCS thing.

Last five prior FCS games.

2013 Wagner 54-0, finished 7-6
2014 Nova 27-26 OT, finished 3-9
2015 URI 47-0, finished 4-8
2016 Colgate 33-7, finished 4-8
2017 Central Conn 50-7, finished 4-8

Which have nothing to do with this year. 10-2. I'm with Julian!

 

[721Comstock]

I fault no one for thinking we can get to X number of wins. You could be right. I don't know yet how good the D is or isn't. It's great to be 2-0 with a real shot of beating FSU. That's what I know.

Can we cover the athletes that FSU has in spades? Do we have the speed to get to the edge in run support? Can we get enough from the inside run game on O? We will know a lot more after Saturday.

Samford managed to do most of that for most of the game.

 

[UnknownOrange]

I'm interested to see what FSU (who has played two night games both at home) is going to do as a slight road favorite for a noon game. If Syracuse can start 7-0 they might deflate.

 

[anomander]

Looks my expectations aren't based as much on how we have performed. While I do think we have shown signs of improvements in almost every aspect and position group minus, LB and WR, my expectations are mostly situational and the way the schedule is opening up with some teams that were expected to bounce back, or be better than they are looking like complete dog crap.

We have a HC advantage in almost every game, proven home field success under Babers, and can never discount a 4th year star starting QB.

 

[007]

Samford managed to do most of that for most of the game.

I hear you, but I think that's mostly irrelevant to knowing how good our D is (or isn't) going into this game.

The Samford results suggest that either FSU is not that athletic/skilled (likely not the case), or Samford had the athletes/game plan to match up, and/or that FSU is still trying to figure things out (most likely case).

 

[Scooch]

Oh, I think we do. He didn't get in until late, but I liked Howard a lot. That young man hits the hole hard.

On the linebackers and the deep coverage, I'm with you. We are currently vulnerable and have to get better fast.

Our O line should have shown a bit more, but hopefully the chemistry comes together soon.

But, gosh, Howard looks like a power back. Run him and Neal out there, and save Strickland for the slot or wheel routes out of the backfield as a third down back.

I hope Howard is a great back but he was going against an exhausted Wagner D. If he's ripping off 10+ yard runs against ACC teams I'll be the first to celebrate his arrival.

 

[cuseincincy]

Settle down a bit. Yes I am very happy with most of what I've seen but we have yet to play a P5 team yet. We have pounded a G5 and FCS team. That said, FSU, UConn, Pitt and UNC all seem down from their usual standards. 6-1 seems really possible.

 

[CuyahogaCuse]

Here’s the deal folks.

For once we have the senior, All-ACC quarterback. He must stay healthy. Or toss in the towel on the hugely inflated expectations (hopes?)

We can score points. We have to score points. We aren’t going to win rock fights. But we are no longer built to play weekly rock fights.

Look at the schedule. Who do you fear?

FSU - as mundane as I can recall at any point in my lifetime. They are coming off their “Villanova” game. Do you remember how you felt after that game? I’ve never felt worse about a Syracuse game. After the last 16 years, that’s saying something. That’s what we have coming on Saturday. We must beat them.

UConn? Think 1990s Rutgers.

Clemson. Must stay healthy. Hope to stay close.

Pitt? I haven’t seen them yet this year. But 51-6 vs Penn State? At home? Really?

Carolina? Finally a break from the Atlantic. Must take care of business.

NC State: I’m admittedly riding the Orange wave by this point. But it’s at home. It wont be easy, but it’s time to beat this team. Did you know we’re 1-10 all time? What’s up with that?

At Wake? Is there a hurricane planned? I’ve been to every Wake game the last four years. They’ve become consistently decent, but we have the senior QB this year. Not them.

Louisville: Throw out the Bama game. Bama’s going to make 2/3 of the SEC look silly. But they weren’t exactly world beaters against Indiana State. Granted there were weather delays. But 31-7? The jury is out on them.

Notre Dame - at Yankee Stadium. Not sure what to think about the Irish. They are rarely as good as their press clippings, however. Ball State wasn’t intimidated. We aren’t Ball State.

Boston College: they might be as good as their press clippings. But this could be the first time both teams are ranked in decades.

Which brings us back to the present. Who do you fear on this schedule? I’ve watched FSU vs. the Hokies and Samford. They are beatable. Saturday is big! Could be the start (continuation) of something special. Let’s take it one week at a time. It’s OK my friends. Get on the bandwagon and believe. Even if it is for five days.