don't shoot messenger, some stat rankings think we're not bad

[Chip]

away from the play. we were assessed 15 after the play.

Yep, it's a rule now. Can't do it. And I bet everyone on our team is pretty clear now.

 

[TheCusian]

if you have 50 possessions where you gain 10 yards, you get 500 yards and score zero.

the offense is bad. that's ok, i know the system is good.

it's not like we're running the ball 5 yards a pop successfully, hard to explain away a lousy ypp when you throw this much

the total yards are proof we get the ball a lot given our YPP. too bad it's after kickoffs and not turnovers.

We haven't had 50 possessions that gained 10 yards. It's been some good drives and some bad. And we've been semi-explosive in 3 Q out of 8 vs FBS schools with better talent.

This is where the eye test picks up the slack, no? It's obvious there are fits and starts and that we're not clicking yet. Babers said it was like a car engine that doesn't sound like it should yet. You can see the potential.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

if you have 50 possessions where you gain 10 yards, you get 500 yards and score zero.

the offense is bad. that's ok, i know the system is good.

it's not like we're running the ball 5 yards a pop successfully, hard to explain away a lousy ypp when you throw this much

the total yards are proof we get the ball a lot given our YPP. too bad it's after kickoffs and not turnovers.

I believe the explanation is the significant number of bubble screens which are an extension of the run game but statistically categorized as a pass. This type of offense promotes 3-5 yard pass plays.

 

[OrangeDW]

Defensive issues aside, we need to start turning offensive yardage into points. Too many drives stalling in between the 40's. Even in the Colgate game, a number of drives stalled out and we settled for FG's. Can't expect to win many games when you combine that with our porous D.

I think one reason we've stalled out between the 40s so often is our field position has been bad. Our D hasn't been getting us the ball in favorable spots and our kick returns go nowhere. It's hard to go 80 yards all the time.

 

[PhatOrange]

It was during the play. You aren't allowed to hit a guy away from the ball anymore in football. Back in the day it was a legal cheap shot. He wasn't called for hitting the guy late but for unnecessary roughness.

I know he did it during the play. I said he did it away from the play.

If the guy was near the ball it would have been fine

 

[Louie and Bouie]

This.

The idea that the offense is failing because YPP is showing inefficiencies is silly. The yards are proof that something good is happening. Those yards will turn to points one of these weeks.

Frankly, what we are doing right now is really hard to do. Statistically speaking we're an anomaly.

This.

The idea that the offense is failing because YPP is showing inefficiencies is silly. The yards are proof that something good is happening. Those yards will turn to points one of these weeks.

Frankly, what we are doing right now is really hard to do. Statistically speaking we're an anomaly.

That the offense will put more points on the board is certainly the hope and isn't out of the question moving forward. The ypp and imo, the points per possession aren't silly at all as indicators though.

Coming into this past week we were in the 90's on points per possession while the defense was in the 100's against the same statistic. Not a formula for success.

You are correct about the strange feeling of gaining so many yards but very few points from those yards. Coming into this week we were 113th in yards per point which illustrates this fact. Hopefully, that improves moving forward.

 

[upperdeck]

usually 40-50 yd drives lead to scoring or scoring chances.. ours got us to 40-50 yd line. we had 8-10 chances to score with decent drives and scored 4 times. USF only had the 6 chances, but 2 were short fields and the punt. we never got the short field..

even against UL we ran the INT back into scoring area with a lot of energy and momentum but no time. i think we really had them on the run and probably score the TD to cut it to 7 and then who knows how the 2nd half plays out.. even the FG would have been huge.

almost every punt has led to a field flip this year. the usf kid had a couple 60 yd with no return and our one long punt went for a TD return

 

[TheCusian]

That the offense will put more points on the board is certainly the hope and isn't out of the question moving forward. The ypp and imo, the points per possession aren't silly at all as indicators though.

Coming into this past week we were in the 90's on points per possession while the defense was in the 100's against the same statistic. Not a formula for success.

You are correct about the strange feeling of gaining so many yards but very few points from those yards. Coming into this week we were 113th in yards per point which illustrates this fact. Hopefully, that improves moving forward.

To be clear, I wasn't saying that they were bad indicators of inefficiency. They are and they do show that.

What I'm saying is that we have a car on the starting block that is showing that it's very capable, but it stalls out at the start too often. When we stop squealing our tires with nothing but a stall out to show for it (the inefficiencies), the car is capable of really putting up points. To take this kinda lame analogy to another level, last years car was a beat up Dodge Stratus... Not efficient or terribly fast or capable of really putting up a lot of points.

 

[Millhouse]

I believe the explanation is the significant number of bubble screens which are an extension of the run game but statistically categorized as a pass. This type of offense promotes 3-5 yard pass plays.

Those constraint plays should open up big inside runs. Hopefully soon

 

[upperdeck]

the flip side is that twice against pretty good Ds we have moved the ball at will for short periods and scored points. what is happening the other part of the game is really the mystery. did USF change up the D or did we start making mistakes. if UL and USF changed things to shut us down thats not good, if its us making mistakes thats correctable. and listening to the coaches it sounds like a lot of that.

we have had the 1 quarter blitzes. if we can get it to half we will be OK.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

usually 40-50 yd drives lead to scoring or scoring chances.. ours got us to 40-50 yd line. we had 8-10 chances to score with decent drives and scored 4 times. USF only had the 6 chances, but 2 were short fields and the punt. we never got the short field..

even against UL we ran the INT back into scoring area with a lot of energy and momentum but no time. i think we really had them on the run and probably score the TD to cut it to 7 and then who knows how the 2nd half plays out.. even the FG would have been huge.

almost every punt has led to a field flip this year. the usf kid had a couple 60 yd with no return and our one long punt went for a TD return

But we aren't getting those 40-50 yard drives. That is the problem. After the 1st Q we had 11 drives of which only 3 were in that range or higher. One of those we got a FG, another we turned it over on downs, and the other we fumbled at the end of the half. So field position wasn't a factor.

Our 1st six drives vs Louisville we only had one drive achieve that range. The 2nd half we had 8 drives with only one reaching that range (I didn't include the last drive that ended the game).

We are either getting good drives that result in points or nothing. We haven't been flipping the field all that much.

 

[upperdeck]

normally 2-3 FDs flip the field. ours make 32 yds..

 

[Millhouse]

But we aren't getting those 40-50 yard drives. That is the problem. After the 1st Q we had 11 drives of which only 3 were in that range or higher. One of those we got a FG, another we turned it over on downs, and the other we fumbled at the end of the half. So field position wasn't a factor.

Our 1st six drives vs Louisville we only had one drive achieve that range. The 2nd half we had 8 drives with only one reaching that range (I didn't include the last drive that ended the game).

We are either getting good drives that result in points or nothing. We haven't been flipping the field all that much.

I don't buy the field position stuff when we aren't good per play

 

[TheCusian]

But we aren't getting those 40-50 yard drives. That is the problem. After the 1st Q we had 11 drives of which only 3 were in that range or higher. One of those we got a FG, another we turned it over on downs, and the other we fumbled at the end of the half. So field position wasn't a factor.

Our 1st six drives vs Louisville we only had one drive achieve that range. The 2nd half we had 8 drives with only one reaching that range (I didn't include the last drive that ended the game).

We are either getting good drives that result in points or nothing. We haven't been flipping the field all that much.

That you had to have a disclaimer proves his point, I think. We need more 1st Q vs USF and 2nd Q vs Louisville and we'll be on our way.

 

[Mr Peabody]

Long catch and run by ET. Estimate was behind the play, found a guy who really had no chance of catching the play and dropped him. It wasn't overly violent, I mean it's Estime. But still it was just far enough away from the play to be called. We still had a 1st and 10, but from their 43 instead of their 28. Next play, Estime (or Phillips) is stepping up to get on the line while Mo Neal is in motion. We didn't wait for Neal to get set. Another 5 back. Promising drive eventually leads to INT that never would have been a playcall.

Here's my issue with that call. Defensive player was running all out (good hustle) to catch the ball carrier and if ball carrier is forced to slow down, cut back, etc., defensive player may have a shot at the play. Otherwise, why does he bother chasing and not just stand there and watch?

Estime makes the block (no head shot, body to body) and it's 15 yards. Should BE have not bothered followng the play?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So according to the "stats" we should beat UConn and then have toss ups vs Wake, VA Tech, BC, NC State. They still have us with a 21.7% chance of getting to 6-6.

The interesting thing is how bad we are with the run. On O we are 115th and on D 127th. The pass D is somehow 45th.

 

[SUskibum]

Here's my issue with that call. Defensive player was running all out (good hustle) to catch the ball carrier and if ball carrier is forced to slow down, cut back, etc., defensive player may have a shot at the play. Otherwise, why does he bother chasing and not just stand there and watch?

Estime makes the block (no head shot, body to body) and it's 15 yards. Should BE have not bothered followng the play?

That was exactly my reaction. It was body to body, wasn't a blindside, wasn't vicious, and was before the whistle.

If you don't want to be hit, don't pursue the ball carrier. If the guy was standing still and then BE lit him up, I would more easily justify the call.

 

[Millhouse]

So according to the "stats" we should beat UConn and then have toss ups vs Wake, VA Tech, BC, NC State. They still have us with a 21.7% chance of getting to 6-6.

The interesting thing is how bad we are with the run. On O we are 115th and on D 127th. The pass D is somehow 45th.

drops

in a way the drops might help us. i'd still rather have people run on us than throw on us.

 

[upperdeck]

its just a ref looking for something to call.. like calling a penalty 40 yds behind a play on a guy who has his helmet taken off. how exactly does a player stay out of a play in the middle of the field?

we also have a big QB draw run by USF get well blocked by the center ref that was a killer play last week

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That was exactly my reaction. It was body to body, wasn't a blindside, wasn't vicious, and was before the whistle.

If you don't want to be hit, don't pursue the ball carrier. If the guy was standing still and then BE lit him up, I would more easily justify the call.

I just saw it for the first time and it was a BS call. Had ET slowed down and cut back, the player would have been involved. It wasn't like he was on the other side of the field.

 

[OrangePA]

I still care about the yards per game. You don't get 500 yards by accident.

Clean up the things you can clean up (Estime's senseless penalty where he seemed to want to take out aggression, the illegal motions, the fumbles, the INTs), and the points will come.

When you get 300 yards, the points don't come.

Stupid penalty on USF punt that gave the ball back to the Bulls.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I still care about the yards per game. You don't get 500 yards by accident.

Clean up the things you can clean up (Estime's senseless penalty where he seemed to want to take out aggression, the illegal motions, the fumbles, the INTs), and the points will come.

When you get 300 yards, the points don't come.

They played an amazingly error free game against Colgate. Now, sure, it's Colgate, but they had very very few penalties. I thought we were going to show more discipline the past couple games. Even if the other team is ahead, I thought these guys were going to avoid offsides holding, delay of game, personal fouls. I think maybe they're tired, and maybe it's the step up in competition. But I'd like to see more discipline in the execution of the plays, fewer runs up the middle on first down - who does this guy think he is, Pasqualoni ! On the right track, I agree. The points are going to come.

 

[Mr Peabody]

 

[Lou_C]

The f/+ rankings on that site are my advanced metric of choice. Nothing's perfect, but to me it's the best thing out there as far as measuring how good a team is.

Right now they've got Syracuse #65. That's after finishing the last few years from #75-85.

Right now it's got Syracuse rated ahead of the likes of Arizona, South Carolina, Colorado, as well as several ACC teams.

All that being said, this is a metric that really becomes much more valuable as the season goes on and the sample sets get bigger.

 

[HtownOrange]

With UConn this week's opponent, we could see more 10+ yard plays. Their speed will not be close to Louisville and USF speed. Plus, with a slow down game, a sustained offensive drive and no substitution for the D will have some effect later in the game. They will not be used to playing the tempo and not subbing.