Early ACC forecast for 2020-21 | Syracusefan.com

Early ACC forecast for 2020-21

malpearl31

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I referenced this in one of the recruiting threads, where there was some discussion about the ACC having been down this past season (which it was) and the ease of our ACC schedule this past season. How will the ACC look next season? Who's leaving? And who's coming in? Below, I'm listing each ACC team (in order of finish/seeding in this year's conference tourney) with a summary of projected key losses and key incoming players.

For the purposes of this analysis, I'm assuming any player that has entered the transfer portal is leaving - and I'm putting any non-seniors projected to be a 1st or 2nd round pick in the NBA Draft in the "could lose" category (as projected by Sam Vecenie of the Athletic in his latest mock draft):

  • 1.) Florida St – loses Trent Forrest – could lose Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams. Incoming: Scottie Barnes (SF, 5-stars), Sardaar Calhoun (SG, 4-stars)
  • 2.) Virginia – loses Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key. Incoming: Sam Hauser (PF, Marquette transfer), Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Shareef’s kid! – SF, 4-stars)
  • 3.) Louisville – loses Seven Enoch, Lamarr Kimble, Dwayne Sutton, Ryan McMahon – could lose Jordan Nwora. Incoming: Jay Scrubb (SF, JC transfer), JJ Traynor (PF, 4-stars), D’Andre Davis (SF/SG, 4-stars)
  • 4.) Duke – loses Javin DeLaurier, Jack White – could lose Vernon Carey, Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley. Incoming: Jalen Johnson (SF, 5-stars), Jeremy Roach (PG, 5-stars), D.J. Steward (SG, 5-stars), Jaemyn Brakefield (PF, 5-stars)
  • 5.) Georgia Tech – loses James Banks. Incoming: Saba Gigiberia (C, 4-stars)
  • 6.) NC State – loses Markell Johnson, CJ Bryce. Incoming: Josh Hall (SF, 4-stars), Cam Hayes (PG, 4-stars), Shakeel Moore (PG, 4-stars)
  • 7.) Syracuse – loses Brycen Goodine, Jalen Carey, Howard Washingon – could lose Elijah Hughes. Incoming: Kadary Richmond (PG, 4-stars), Woody Newton (PF, 4-stars)
  • 8.) Notre Dame – loses John Mooney, TJ Gibbs, Rex Pflueger, Juwan Durham. Incoming: No 5-star or 4-star recruits
  • 9.) Clemson – loses Tevin Mack. Incoming: P.J. Hall (C, 4-stars)
  • 10.) Miami – loses Dejan Vasilijevic. Incoming Earl Timberlake (SF, 4-stars), Matt Cross (PF, 4-stars)
  • 11.) Boston College – loses Derryck Thornton, Nik Popovic, Jared Hamilton. Incoming: Demarr Langford (SF, 4-stars)
  • 12.) Virginia Tech – loses Landers Nolley. Incoming: Joe Bamisile (SG, 4-stars), Darius Maddox (SG, 4-stars)
  • 13.) Wake Forest – loses Brandon Childress, Andrien White, Torry Johnson. Incoming: No 5-star or 4-star recruits
  • 14.) Pittsburgh – loses Trey McGowens, Eric Hamilton. Incoming: John Hugley IV (C, 4-stars), Noah Collier (SF, 4-stars)
  • 15.) North Carolina – loses Brandon Robinson, Christian Keeling, Justin Pierce – could lose Cole Anthony. Incoming: Day’Ron Sharpe (C, 5-stars), Walker Kessler (C, 5-stars), Caleb Love (PG, 5-stars), R.J. Davis (PG, 4-stars), Donovan Johnson (SF, 4-stars)
Although our ACC schedule will almost certainly be more difficult next season (hard for it to be worse than this year's 14th out of 15), virtually every team that finished with a better or equal conference record is projected to lose more significant pieces than we are. (Georgia Tech is the lone exception.)

We should have one of the more experienced teams in the ACC next season. Hughes will be very difficult to replace, no doubt, but there aren't many other teams projected to have 4 starters returning. Hopefully that experience will translate into some better late-game production - allowing us to maybe steal some Ws that we couldn't get last season (at Clemson and Miami, vs ND, Va Tech and NC St).
 
Don’t see why we can’t jump to the 5 spot, and LVille will lose 50 PPG, if Nwora bolts, so top 4 isn’t out of the question. UNC could always bounce back, but the teams below us realistically shouldn’t be that much better next year. We shouldn’t finish any lower than 8th, and that’s with Tech and State not falling off, while UNC jumps us. NCSU is losing two huge pieces, and who knows how well the incoming freshmen do. GaTech overachieved this year, IMO, and Banks was their best big when it comes to rebounding, and blocking shots. Doubt Saba is ready as a frosh, but who knows. So, really I’d project us to finish 6th, while giving UNC/GaTech, and LVille the benefit of the doubt.
 
F809BE42-3218-4586-BCB0-161F3B88A355.png

Our 2020-2021 projections for our team.
 
ACC 2020-2021 projections
DA7BF6CF-6102-4AF2-83F5-8BB7286E392E.jpeg


We are projected 7th which is pretty much every year what we have done since 2014.
 
View attachment 178569
Our 2020-2021 projections for our team.

If Guerrier averages under 8 ppg, we're really in a world of trouble. Assuming Hughes is gone, I expect him to be the 2nd leading scorer behind Buddy. I really believe he'll have a huge spike in production, something like 15 ppg and 8 or 9 rpg. This also assumes he doesn't pick up fouls at the same alarming rate he did this season.
 
I referenced this in one of the recruiting threads, where there was some discussion about the ACC having been down this past season (which it was) and the ease of our ACC schedule this past season. How will the ACC look next season? Who's leaving? And who's coming in? Below, I'm listing each ACC team (in order of finish/seeding in this year's conference tourney) with a summary of projected key losses and key incoming players.

For the purposes of this analysis, I'm assuming any player that has entered the transfer portal is leaving - and I'm putting any non-seniors projected to be a 1st or 2nd round pick in the NBA Draft in the "could lose" category (as projected by Sam Vecenie of the Athletic in his latest mock draft):

  • 1.) Florida St – loses Trent Forrest – could lose Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams. Incoming: Scottie Barnes (SF, 5-stars), Sardaar Calhoun (SG, 4-stars)
  • 2.) Virginia – loses Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key. Incoming: Sam Hauser (PF, Marquette transfer), Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Shareef’s kid! – SF, 4-stars)
  • 3.) Louisville – loses Seven Enoch, Lamarr Kimble, Dwayne Sutton, Ryan McMahon – could lose Jordan Nwora. Incoming: Jay Scrubb (SF, JC transfer), JJ Traynor (PF, 4-stars), D’Andre Davis (SF/SG, 4-stars)
  • 4.) Duke – loses Javin DeLaurier, Jack White – could lose Vernon Carey, Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley. Incoming: Jalen Johnson (SF, 5-stars), Jeremy Roach (PG, 5-stars), D.J. Steward (SG, 5-stars), Jaemyn Brakefield (PF, 5-stars)
  • 5.) Georgia Tech – loses James Banks. Incoming: Saba Gigiberia (C, 4-stars)
  • 6.) NC State – loses Markell Johnson, CJ Bryce. Incoming: Josh Hall (SF, 4-stars), Cam Hayes (PG, 4-stars), Shakeel Moore (PG, 4-stars)
  • 7.) Syracuse – loses Brycen Goodine, Jalen Carey, Howard Washingon – could lose Elijah Hughes. Incoming: Kadary Richmond (PG, 4-stars), Woody Newton (PF, 4-stars)
  • 8.) Notre Dame – loses John Mooney, TJ Gibbs, Rex Pflueger, Juwan Durham. Incoming: No 5-star or 4-star recruits
  • 9.) Clemson – loses Tevin Mack. Incoming: P.J. Hall (C, 4-stars)
  • 10.) Miami – loses Dejan Vasilijevic. Incoming Earl Timberlake (SF, 4-stars), Matt Cross (PF, 4-stars)
  • 11.) Boston College – loses Derryck Thornton, Nik Popovic, Jared Hamilton. Incoming: Demarr Langford (SF, 4-stars)
  • 12.) Virginia Tech – loses Landers Nolley. Incoming: Joe Bamisile (SG, 4-stars), Darius Maddox (SG, 4-stars)
  • 13.) Wake Forest – loses Brandon Childress, Andrien White, Torry Johnson. Incoming: No 5-star or 4-star recruits
  • 14.) Pittsburgh – loses Trey McGowens, Eric Hamilton. Incoming: John Hugley IV (C, 4-stars), Noah Collier (SF, 4-stars)
  • 15.) North Carolina – loses Brandon Robinson, Christian Keeling, Justin Pierce – could lose Cole Anthony. Incoming: Day’Ron Sharpe (C, 5-stars), Walker Kessler (C, 5-stars), Caleb Love (PG, 5-stars), R.J. Davis (PG, 4-stars), Donovan Johnson (SF, 4-stars)
Although our ACC schedule will almost certainly be more difficult next season (hard for it to be worse than this year's 14th out of 15), virtually every team that finished with a better or equal conference record is projected to lose more significant pieces than we are. (Georgia Tech is the lone exception.)

We should have one of the more experienced teams in the ACC next season. Hughes will be very difficult to replace, no doubt, but there aren't many other teams projected to have 4 starters returning. Hopefully that experience will translate into some better late-game production - allowing us to maybe steal some Ws that we couldn't get last season (at Clemson and Miami, vs ND, Va Tech and NC St).
I have to think GT loses Moses too, he's ready to make the jump
 
How about minutes per game? I'll take the over on Buddy plus-37 mins a game.
That is in the stats it projects Buddy will play 86% of the minutes next year which would be 34.4.

I think that is too low but what the projections call for.
 
Miami ahead of us? Doubtful. Though they aren’t losing much, and adding some solid pieces. Who knows. I don’t see NCST doing that good while having to replace arguably their two best kids. UNC is going to be relying on young guys once again, so where they end up is a crapshoot. I don’t see GaTech doing as well. They could, since Pastner is solid enough, but I wouldn’t count on it. And then Louisville, who will need to replace a lot, and even if they do have Nwora, it’s still 32 PPG. 4th-8th for us, though I’d bet on us not doing worse than 6th, which ain’t terrible. As much as everyone wants to compete for the top spot, gotta be patient, and we’ll be there in due time. 2023 in Houston sounds like good timing, after we win the regular season crown, and ACCT. JB ain’t going out like a chump.
 
Pete Thamel, on Jim Rome's show, noted that not a single Power 6 coach has been fired. He attributed this in large part to the big boosters, whose portfolios are down~30%, not willing/able to cough up buy-out money.
And Covid-19. ADs are reticent to do anything as frivolous as change coaches while cities and states are on lockdown (and draw unwanted attention to state monies allocated to college athletics).
 
And Covid-19. ADs are reticent to do anything as frivolous as change coaches while cities and states are on lockdown (and draw unwanted attention to state monies allocated to college athletics).
Of course, BC is not a state school.
 
Back to the OP, anyone surprised they have UVA forecasted that high?
Seems like the key to their season is going to be the incoming Abdur-Rahim kid. If he’s special, they could be pretty good. If he’s a typical up-and-down, struggling freshman - then I think their offense will still be bad (they were 234th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as rated by KenPom!) and I would expect their defense to be worse as well.

No better than last year is my relatively uninformed opinion.
 
Seems like the key to their season is going to be the incoming Abdur-Rahim kid. If he’s special, they could be pretty good. If he’s a typical up-and-down, struggling freshman - then I think their offense will still be bad (they were 234th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as rated by KenPom!) and I would expect their defense to be worse as well.

No better than last year is my relatively uninformed opinion.

Sam Hauser, transfer from Marquette, will also be available next year. He's got All-ACC potential.
 

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