End of Expansion . . . for now?

[General20]

Even with the news that the Pac - whatever is not expanding to 16 (yet), I dont believe expansion is quite finished.

I dont believe the SEC is going to stay at 13 teams. While you dont need an even number of teams, 13 seems like an awkward number. Plus, even though the SEC is having tremendous on-field success, they have good reason to expand - namely the fact that their conference is not in a lot of good tv markets (maybe a better way to put it would be that the conference is in a lot of bad tv markets).

To me it makes good logical sense for the SEC to spread to one more (possibly three more) big tv markets.

If you look at a possible raid of the ACC, their choices would be Florida St., Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson (none of the Carolina teams are leaving and the rest are too far north). I'm not sure how Florida St. (in Tallahassee) or Clemson really help on the TV side of things. Georgia Tech is located in Atlanta but I'm not sure they give anything more than Georgia already produces.

The only team that makes sense (TV wise) is Miami, but they are a very undesirable choice when you factor in the news that they recently got caught with their hand in the metaphorical sex-yacht jar.

Missouri makes good logical sense, as they can bring in the St. Louis market, and I'd lay money on them moving to the SEC before long.

As for moving to 16? West Virginia has already been turned down, Louisville is in a state already owned by Kentucky, and none of the other Big 12 teams (unless they can convince Oklahoma or Texas to move) make any sense. So it seams to me that the SEC will add Missouri then stand pat for a while.

As for the rest? Texas is going to stay in the Big 12 as long as possible. Notre Dame is going to stay independent as long as possible, and the conferences that want those two schools (namely the B1G, the Pac -whatever, and the ACC) are not going to expand further until the door is officially closed on the big fish.

That puts the superconfrences in a stalemate position . . . for now. It leaves the Big 12 with 8 teams, and the Big East with 7. I'm not sure how many teams the Big 12 would like to have, but I think Louisville and West Virginia would be likely candidates for them (I've heard Texas does not want TCU included) . . . and if I were them I'd jump off the sinking Big East ship.

So, for the short term (in the long term the Big 12 is screwed), they seem to be in a position where they can solidify themselves. As for the Big East, and other smaller conferences. I think blood is in the water. I think a few smaller conferences will try to merge or improve each other in some way, to overtake the Big East's spot at the table. If the Big East is looking at a world where they have only UConn, Rutgers, TCU, South Florida, Cincinnati. They are not going to be able to fill a roster with very desirable candidates. Maybe the likes of Navy, East Carolina, Central Florida . . . if they are lucky. It may even get worse than that. Whether that is good enough for a BCS bid, I'm not sure, but I'd guess not.

My point, is, I suppose. Even without the formation of the superconfrences . . . yet. Change is coming and SU is in a better spot now than they were before.

 

[Guinness]

I think it would be a mistake for the ACC to not kill the BE once and for all now. Take UConn and then what ever team you want but do it and be done with it. Lock up the entire east coast once and for all. This waiting on ND has been going on by many conferences for many years. It is not going to happen imo.

 

[SkanSU]

If you look at a possible raid of the ACC, their choices would be Florida St., Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson (none of the Carolina teams are leaving and the rest are too far north). I'm not sure how Florida St. (in Tallahassee) or Clemson really help on the TV side of things. Georgia Tech is located in Atlanta but I'm not sure they give anything more than Georgia already produces.

I think the SEC pushes very hard for Florida State. Great football with a somewhat national TV following as long as they are on top. Wouldmake a great SEC rivalry with Florida, Alabama, Georgia, etc. They really big bucks it would cost them to opt out of the ACC would be a barrier. But in the ACC they are top dog on the block in football with nothing to afford them to stay b/c of (sorry ACC) mediocre football (except maybe Miami and Virginia Tech and Clemson in good years). Think of the money rolling in from TV for Florida St.- Alabama; Florida State- Georgia; Florida St.- Florida; Florida St.- Tennesee, etc.

 

[jordoo]

I would love the ACC to go to 16 teams make up crazy penalties for leaving and sit pretty waiting things out. But the reality is as long as ND is a possibility they will hold off and thats what that ND ACC if forced statement was all about.(stalling and having a spot held in the ACC) Still if the ACC took UConn and lockup up some crazy penalties for leaving I think it might force ND hand even more wether it be ACC or B1G. ND needs the BE bowl ti ins and if the BE folds they won't have that.

I agree that the SEC will most likely take Mizzouri and stand pat for now but they have not given up on FSU.

 

[HoustonCuse]

How long do the existing ND and UT tv deals last? Can't the ACC bring them in with the stipulation that they keep their deals until they expire and then revenue share like all other conference members?

Although I still think UT won't go without OK. I think the ACC should grab UConn and go to 15. The move will not only put pressure on ND to make some kind of move, but it will destroy the big east. Unfortunately we need the big east wrecked or I really fear we will be hurt in basketball recruiting.

 

[jordoo]

Although I still think UT won't go without OK. I think the ACC should grab UConn and go to 15. The move will not only put pressure on ND to make some kind of move, but it will destroy the big east. Unfortunately we need the big east wrecked or I really fear we will be hurt in basketball recruiting.

I've been thinking about them grabbing UConn as well. Go to 15 but make it public that thats temporary and they will be going to 16 shortly. That would destroy the BE and hurt ND to begin with plus it would be kind of a hey we have one spot left ND, take it or we will pick one of the many many teams begging us to make them #16.

 

[HoustonCuse]

It's not like Rutgers won't be there to grab in the event of a doomsday scenario. So the "Yukon Gambit" strategy his high reward/low risk.

 

[jordoo]

It's not like Rutgers won't be there to grab in the event of a doomsday scenario. So the "Yukon Gambit" strategy his high reward/low risk.

Right plus WVU has been turned down by the SEC and is unwanted by the BiG. Although they don't bring a big market or academics on the standard ACC level they are competetive in both Fball and Bball and will basically be available right to the end.
Rutgers, WVU, Lville, Cinci, Memphis, USF and plenty of others would be dying to join any where.

The key would be to give that short time period IMO. Create a mad scramble and panic. Make ND react one way or the other. If its to the BiG then grab whomever you have predetermined as your top chioce other than ND.

 

[baggerbob]

If the Big 12 is staying together they need at least 3 teams to get back to 12. They also need to eliminate the Big east from future discussions. They can help the ACC and thenselves by taking Tcu, Louisville and possibly Cincy. Then the ACC can invite connecticut and sit back and wait.

 

[rstone7727]

Like I just posted in a different thread, ND is in demand! They can sit back and wait as long as they like. When (if) they decide to go to a conference, they can take their pick. Every conference would take them and dump some other team. They are in no corner.

 

[jordoo]

Like I just posted in a different thread, ND is in demand! They can sit back and wait as long as they like. When (if) they decide to go to a conference, they can take their pick. Every conference would take them and dump some other team. They are in no corner.

Maybe so, but if thats the case then by adding UConn and giving a time table the ACC can be sure. Then they go 16 and make the buy out 50mill and the time frame penalty 36 months ect. Remmeber the ACC would be threatening to be the first 16team conference and locking up those 16teams long term. Once this happens with the ACC the SEC would surely follow suit as quickly as possible leaving the B1G and the Pac to try and come up with their 16. So your still effectively making ND chose ACC or B1G, which they will have to do anyways at some point.

 

[jr4750]

Let UCONN and Rutgers fade for a few years...

Wait till the very last minute for ND

 

[Antiprodigy]

Let UCONN fade for good, as far as i am concerned. I'd rather the ACC not take them at all, let them hang out on the branch to drift in the wind till they wither and die.

That would further consolidate SU's recruiting . Stand pat ACC. UCONN and Rutgers bring very little value to your business.
But, please have a very direct conversation with FSU, and make sure you are clear that you want them to be very happy with the make-up of the conference.

 

[PoppyHart]

If the Big 12 is staying together they need at least 3 teams to get back to 12. They also need to eliminate the Big east from future discussions. They can help the ACC and thenselves by taking Tcu, Louisville and possibly Cincy. Then the ACC can invite connecticut and sit back and wait.

I don't think the Big-12 cares about having 12. They were content with the 10 they had this year, and 9 or 8 will probably be just as acceptable.

Just goes to show the fallacy that the championship games are such cash cows. They'd rather divide the TV money by a smaller number (8-10), than admit a few more schools and raise a few million more.

 

[General20]

Like I just posted in a different thread, ND is in demand! They can sit back and wait as long as they like. When (if) they decide to go to a conference, they can take their pick. Every conference would take them and dump some other team. They are in no corner.

I agree with this very much. The ONLY way to force ND into a conference is to form 4 super-confrences that might split from the NCAA and leave Notre Dame behind. No single conference can force Notre Dame's hand. So it becomes a waiting game. Other dominoes need to fall before the biggest ones (Texas and Notre Dame) go down. They will be the last.

And knowing they will be the last, why should the ACC not wait? UConn isn't going anywhere. Neither is Rutgers. And if the impossible happened and they did, there are other teams which bring just as much to the table.

I honestly don't get the opinion that the ACC needs to put a stake in the Big East's heart now. That already happened when SU and Pitt left.

What is more interesting, to me, and why it makes sense for the ACC to wait before expanding more. Is to see what being in a lesser Big East for a couple of years does to the UConn and Rutgers programs.

In the case of UConn, they went to a BCS game for football and promptly lost their coach. Then the best they could replace him with was coach P. Now I respect everything coach P did for SU, but to be in a BCS bowl, then lose your coach to a non-BCS bowl team (has Maryland EVER played in a BCS bowl?) then only be able to replace him with a guy who was fired from a peer and has been out of college football for several years? Not a good sign. And coach P is no spring chicken. When they have to get another coach, the pickings will be even more slim. Their football team is on shaky ground, to say the least.

In the case of Rutgers. After, oh, about a century of futility, its amazing to me how much good-will they pulled from a couple "successful" seasons. Mind you, the success they had gets coaches fired at places like Michigan. But they haven't been able to maintain even that. How are they going t rebuild now? I dont think they can without the help of a better conference affiliation.

The really interesting question is UConn basketball. Calhoun is on his last legs, and we know (from watching St. John's and Georgetown) how hard it is to replace a legend. Certainly the Big East will still be a viable basketball conference. I would submit that making it a little less tough will actually be a good thing for UConn. But they have no replacement in line, as we do for Boeheim, and not being in a power conference may be the difference between signing an A+ replacement for Calhoun and singing a B+ replacement for Calhoun.

I think the UConn basketball program will always have value, but if they get a B+ replacement for Calhoun they may no longer be a top 5 or 10 program. And would it be worth it for the ACC (or anybody else) to take a program in Connecticut (when BC already represents New England in a better market) if they are a B+ basketball team and a D- football team?

If I had to guess, I would guess that both UConn and Rutgers end up in the ACC. No matter what is said, I still feel Notre Dame will choose the B1G in the end. But that is not set in stone. Both Rutgers and UConn have every reason to fear a few difficult years coming up, and both UConn and Rutgers have reason to fear being left behind entirely.

 

[HoustonCuse]

The reason to strike a death blow to the Big East is that, like you said, if things stay as they are now, it will still be a power basketball conference. It will remain on equal footing or a half step below the new ACC and will still control much of the northeast AND have MSG locked up. To me, that makes the Big East a tremendous threat to the ACC and hurts Syracuse recruiting. By grabbing Uconn, the ACC can in one fell swoop knock out it's only rival on the east coast, cause more teams to have to move around thus forcing ND closer to a decision point, and potentially wipe out ND's cushy home for basketball and olympic sports - again putting pressure on them to make a move.

Further, if the Big East reacts by grabbing more teams - they could come from the Big 12 which may make Texas available to the ACC.

I just don't see a downside to adding Uconn. If you add them and the swing and miss on ND, then on Texas, you'll still have your pick of Rutgers or Louisville. As an added bonus it gets us our modern era basketball rival, makes the ACC unquestioned #1 in BB and shifts the center of gravity of the conference a little more north which helps us as well.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Rumor out here in Utah is that BYU is likely to be invited to the Big 12 as the 10th member, since the conference would accommodate their tv contract.

Not sure if this is based in anything real or just wishful thinking.

 

[SkanSU]

(sigh) You are not going to force Texas or ND to voluntarily give up their lucrative TV contracts to hike to the ACC. PAC-12 said, "Share the wealth" and Texas said."No Way". By adding UConn to the ACC you are absolutely putting the Big East BCS status in jeopardy resulting in 2 possibilities ... the Big East picking up whatever remnants and adding 1 or 2 or 3 lesser BCS football schools ...keeping ND comfy cozy. Or ND picks up their skirts and finds a conference with whom they do not have to share their football money ... and there are conferences that would love ND ... Howabout the Big 12 (or 9) who already have 1 school that doesn't share. While they don't need another school picking up a ND miht keep Missouri in the corral.

 

[SkanSU]

Rumor out here in Utah is that BYU is likely to be invited to the Big 12 as the 10th member, since the conference would accommodate their tv contract.

Not sure if this is based in anything real or just wishful thinking.

Now that would be interestingand shatter my scenario above ... great skiing in Utah. Love it!!

 

[Antiprodigy]

Don't be suprised to see WVU and Louisville end up in the Big 12. If that is the case, the BE is done as a football conference. I say 65/35 that OU rights the ship in the Big 12 and swallow the BE's football dreams.

 

[jordoo]

Taking UConn would have MSG pulling out of the BET ASAP and trying to get the ACCT. The ACC would rule East Coast hoops. Also another fball school gone makes the BE scramble and either add a bunch of junk or have the fball schools scatter to whomever will take them. The BE is the home for all of ND's other sports except for maybe Hockey. Aren't ND's special consideration for BCS bowls tied in with the BE? I thought they were not 100% sure. If the BE loses its BCS spot wouldn't that hurt ND?

Look ND is in a position of power and they make he most sense for the ACC to add, I get that, but they are one of the keys to this whole mess from the begginning and I'd rather lose them by standing up and say all or nothing you've got two weeks or enjoy the B1G! ND would make more money in the B1G but thats not such a huge deal for them because of their huge endowment and the masive TV money they will bring with them to any conference's new TV deal involving ND. The research aspect of the B1G is also great for them and very appealing but they don't fit in size wise and they are private while the B1G is huge public schools mainly.

 

[Antiprodigy]

No way any conference is going to give ND an ultimatum.

 

[SUfanNC]

After all this expansion talk and nothing really happened except Pitt and ourselves panicked and left for the ACC for fear of being left behind and doomed the Big East. I feel like the conference we helped build just got dealt a blow it may never recover from the hands of a founding member.

 

[SkanSU]

No way any conference is going to give ND an ultimatum.

That is true. The B1G would actually be a good fit for ND ... while not a large public school like the rest of the B1G the certainly have considerably more in common with them than the ACC: Geographics and athletics, specifically. Most of the ND scheduleis already weighted B1G
with 3 games this year (Michigan,Michigan State, and Purdue) ... that is a consistent trend. Interesting that they also have scheduled games with 3 ACC teams (one being BC who they always play). Further, the B1G has been acourtin' ND for a long time.

 

[Antiprodigy]

the two things that the ACC has that the B1G doesn't have, and never will:

1) East coast time zone is considered the prime time zone.

2) The population in the East is expanding, while the population in the rust belt is contracting.

Demographics means a lot, and that's why ND hasn't dismissed the ACC as an option, when otherwise, the B1G seems like a no-brainer.