Expected values of kicking vs going for it

[Millhouse]

Kicking implies insanely high confidence in Szmyt and insanely low confidence in Shrader/Tucker.

Assumptions
the odds of a 48 yard make is 60%. I don't actually believe it's that high I'm proving a point
the odds of Clemson not scoring after a made kick 90%
the odds of converting a 4th and 1 are 50%.
the odds of winning in overtime are 40%
the odds of making a shorter FG given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 80%
the odds of scoring a TD given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 20%

Odds of winning if you kick. 60%*90%*40% = 22% chance of winning with crazy high expectations of a made kick

Odds of winning in regulation or overtime if you go for it (50%*20%)+(50%*80%*40%)=10%+16% = 26% chance of winning

I think the odds of a made 48 yarder are 25% which makes it a 9% chance of winning in Overtime
I think the odds of a made fg after converting a first down is really 50%

In that case, the odds of winning by kicking on 4th and 1 are 9% and the odds of winning by going for it are 20%

It was a terrible decision and that's not even factoring how it was to not know ahead of time what you'd do if you didn't get it on third down.

 

[upperdeck]

I think the numbers are interesting but skewed

odds of making about 40%
odds of clemson not scoring about 95%
odds of making 4th and 1 about 20%
odds of winning in OT about 70%
odds of making shorter fg about 40%
odds of scoring a TD about 5%

 

[Millhouse]

I think the numbers are interesting but skewed

odds of making about 40%
odds of clemson not scoring about 95%
odds of making 4th and 1 about 20%
odds of winning in OT about 70%
odds of making shorter fg about 40%
odds of scoring a TD about 5%

Your combination of assumptions is completely crazy.
If you think they have a 5% of scoring a TD after picking up the first down, why in the world would you think they would have a 70% chance of winning in OT

you think distance doesn't matter to FGs

but yes, i'm sure if you come up with completely crazy assumptions you can justify kicking but i think that's how you know how dumb the decision was

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I haven’t seen this said yet but Dino not having a plan for the 4th down play is inexcusable. He called TO prior to the 3rd down play. He had plenty of time to think over what he would do if we failed to get the 1st down. If that choice was go for it then why call the last TO? If that choice was kick the FG why keep any time in the clock? Not having a plan coming out of the TO might be worse than his use of the last TO.

 

[Millhouse]

I haven’t seen this said yet but Dino not having a plan for the 4th down play is inexcusable. He called TO prior to the 3rd down play. He had plenty of time to think over what he would do if we failed to get the 1st down. If that choice was go for it then why call the last TO? If that choice was kick the FG why keep any time in the clock? Not having a plan coming out of the TO might be worse than his use of the last TO.

it's just terrible. We know that dino is very pessimistic about their ability to pick up a first down because he decided to kick. but how can someone be that pessimistic a minute later but never consider the possibility that they wouldn't pick it up on third down? The indecisiveness followed by the kick means he assumed they'd get it on third down and then assumed they wouldn't get it on fourth down. obviously, that's not how he thought, he's just a confused mess not thinking straight at all

 

[upperdeck]

Your combination of assumptions is completely crazy.
If you think they have a 5% of scoring a TD after picking up the first down, why in the world would you think they would have a 70% chance of winning in OT

you think distance doesn't matter to FGs

but yes, i'm sure if you come up with completely crazy assumptions you can justify kicking but i think that's how you know how dumb the decision was

in OT you dont have to score a TD to win, Clemson was gonna struggle to score like they did all game. the gods have to help us sometime this season..

if 47 yds is a long FG then what is a short one? he didnt even kick it 47 yds anyway. just a horrible kick.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

A lot of people are ragging on Andre for the miss, and while it is true that he has struggled this year, a 48 yarder for any kicker is not a gimme. We have had many kickers in the past that would not have even been trotted onto the field for a 48 yarder. I didn't realize that the chance of success was as low as 60% but then you factor in the laces being the wrong way and it was doomed to fail.

I was very surprised that we didn't go for it in that situation.

 

[SUDadx2]

Kicking implies insanely high confidence in Szmyt and insanely low confidence in Shrader/Tucker.

Assumptions
the odds of a 48 yard make is 60%. I don't actually believe it's that high I'm proving a point
the odds of Clemson not scoring after a made kick 90%
the odds of converting a 4th and 1 are 50%.
the odds of winning in overtime are 40%
the odds of making a shorter FG given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 80%
the odds of scoring a TD given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 20%

Odds of winning if you kick. 60%*90%*40% = 22% chance of winning with crazy high expectations of a made kick

Odds of winning in regulation or overtime if you go for it (50%*20%)+(50%*80%*40%)=10%+16% = 26% chance of winning

I think the odds of a made 48 yarder are 25% which makes it a 9% chance of winning in Overtime
I think the odds of a made fg after converting a first down is really 50%

In that case, the odds of winning by kicking on 4th and 1 are 9% and the odds of winning by going for it are 20%

It was a terrible decision and that's not even factoring how it was to not know ahead of time what you'd do if you didn't get it on third down.

Where did you get these odds, or how did you calculate these odds? How did you get the odds for a 48 yd FG?

 

[upperdeck]

I wish we had a QB that we trusted to throw because then we could have run a better play on 3rd down and probably took the 4th down play out of the question. Felt like we had to try and run it there for safety.. No issue with the run, hope we popped it for 10+ but maybe run a play they hadnt seen much like a toss or a mini option.

 

[Millhouse]

in OT you dont have to score a TD to win, Clemson was gonna struggle to score like they did all game. the gods have to help us sometime this season..

if 47 yds is a long FG then what is a short one? he didnt even kick it 47 yds anyway. just a horrible kick.

i post a lot less than I used to and I'm not going to start posting more debating intervention by the gods and whether you can have a shorter fg than 47 yards

 

[Millhouse]

Where did you get these odds, or how did you calculate these odds? How did you get the odds for a 48 yd FG?

i clearly called them assumptions. and i conservatively assumed a higher chance of making the kick to show that it was still a terrible choice

 

[upperdeck]

Where did you get these odds, or how did you calculate these odds? How did you get the odds for a 48 yd FG?

odds in NFL now are like over 80%. who knows in college but its around 60% given some charts.. what isnt really known is how the kicks took place.

 

[Millhouse]

A lot of people are ragging on Andre for the miss, and while it is true that he has struggled this year, a 48 yarder for any kicker is not a gimme. We have had many kickers in the past that would not have even been trotted onto the field for a 48 yarder. I didn't realize that the chance of success was as low as 60% but then you factor in the laces being the wrong way and it was doomed to fail.

I was very surprised that we didn't go for it in that situation.

coaches and some fans just ignore that tying to get to overtime doesn't mean you'll win in overtime.

cross that bridge when we get there stupid thinking

 

[Millhouse]

A lot of people are ragging on Andre for the miss, and while it is true that he has struggled this year, a 48 yarder for any kicker is not a gimme. We have had many kickers in the past that would not have even been trotted onto the field for a 48 yarder. I didn't realize that the chance of success was as low as 60% but then you factor in the laces being the wrong way and it was doomed to fail.

I was very surprised that we didn't go for it in that situation.

I am just making up that 60% number but i think it's way too optimistic

 

[HRE Otto IV]

A lot of people are ragging on Andre for the miss, and while it is true that he has struggled this year, a 48 yarder for any kicker is not a gimme. We have had many kickers in the past that would not have even been trotted onto the field for a 48 yarder. I didn't realize that the chance of success was as low as 60% but then you factor in the laces being the wrong way and it was doomed to fail.

I was very surprised that we didn't go for it in that situation.

60% is too high. It is probably closer to 50%. But given we play in the Dome maybe it should be 55%. So by kicking the FG we likely had a 25% chance of winning. I rather control your own destiny and go for the win that last drive.

 

[Millhouse]

60% is too high. It is probably closer to 50%. But given we play in the Dome maybe it should be 55%. So by kicking the FG we likely had a 25% chance of winning. I rather control your own destiny and go for the win that last drive.

the only way you can justify what they did is if you don't think szmyt is more likely to make a closer FG.

 

[JustPherU]

Ive crunched the numbers myself and I came up with the odds are 100% we lost the game because our head coach is very bad game manager.

 

[Ozcuse]

This info is a little dated but the % for all 48 yards kicks by P5 kickers in 2018 was 17/28 = 60%.

The thing is that coaches only have their kickers take those kicks if they have high confidence they could make them. You don’t put a player that doesn’t have the leg in that position. That’s why you see more missed kicks at 43 yards (43%) than 48 because poorer kickers are taking them and missing and usually only the premium kickers are getting shots at 48.

#CollegeKickers: When They Make & Miss Field Goals by Distance, Situation and More

#CollegeKickers: When They Make & Miss Field Goals by Distance, Situation and More - Post

watchstadium.com

 

[Cusefan0307]

He kicks or punts always in this situation and it’s directly correlated to all of our losses. There’s no way you can argue differently. It’s maddening. I wish we didn’t have a kicker or punter at this point.

 

[Eric15]

the odds of converting a 4th and 1 are 50%.

If you could guarantee that the play-call would be our big/strong QB lining up under center and simply lunging forward (i.e. always the most rational thing to do when you need a yard) I feel like the odds would be significantly higher than 50%. Probably closer to 90%.

But coaches who are smarter than me for some reason think handing the ball off 2-3 yards in the backfield is somehow a good idea.

 

[CousCuse]

This info is a little dated but the % for all 48 yards kicks by P5 kickers in 2018 was 17/28 = 60%.

The thing is that coaches only have their kickers take those kicks if they have high confidence they could make them. You don’t put a player that doesn’t have the leg in that position. That’s why you see more missed kicks at 43 yards (43%) than 48 because poorer kickers are taking them and missing and usually only the premium kickers are getting shots at 48.

#CollegeKickers: When They Make & Miss Field Goals by Distance, Situation and More

#CollegeKickers: When They Make & Miss Field Goals by Distance, Situation and More - Post

watchstadium.com

You can coach strictly by percentages but the coach has to factor in other variables as well, like wind, weather, field condition and my kickers confidence is in the toilet, for instance.

 

[CousCuse]

If you could guarantee that the play-call would be our big/strong QB lining up under center and simply lunging forward (i.e. always the most rational thing to do when you need a yard) I feel like the odds would be significantly higher than 50%. Probably closer to 90%.

But coaches who are smarter than me for some reason think handing the ball off 2-3 yards in the backfield is somehow a good idea.

Clemson was out of TO's, why not rush up to the line and try to draw them off sides? We don't have that play in our book?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

This info is a little dated but the % for all 48 yards kicks by P5 kickers in 2018 was 17/28 = 60%.

The thing is that coaches only have their kickers take those kicks if they have high confidence they could make them. You don’t put a player that doesn’t have the leg in that position. That’s why you see more missed kicks at 43 yards (43%) than 48 because poorer kickers are taking them and missing and usually only the premium kickers are getting shots at 48.

#CollegeKickers: When They Make & Miss Field Goals by Distance, Situation and More

#CollegeKickers: When They Make & Miss Field Goals by Distance, Situation and More - Post

watchstadium.com

Small sample size. 47 yarders were 50%.

 

[NineOneSeven]

A lot of people are ragging on Andre for the miss, and while it is true that he has struggled this year, a 48 yarder for any kicker is not a gimme. We have had many kickers in the past that would not have even been trotted onto the field for a 48 yarder. I didn't realize that the chance of success was as low as 60% but then you factor in the laces being the wrong way and it was doomed to fail.

I was very surprised that we didn't go for it in that situation.

Look how many kicks were missed in the NFL last week!

48 yards is a far kick.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Personally I think < 42 yards the FG is the better choice but you can easily justify going for it. 42 to 47 you should go for it but can justify the FG. Over 47 you have to go for it.