Expected values of kicking vs going for it

[690West]

i post a lot less than I used to

Personally I hate this decision.

 

[AZOrange]

coaches and some fans just ignore that tying to get to overtime doesn't mean you'll win in overtime.

cross that bridge when we get there stupid thinking

The funny part is that you can just throw away all the stats like Dino does and on gut feeling alone you don’t send out your kicker. My god that’s like sending up the .150 hitter when you need a game winning hit who you know hasn’t move the bat off his shoulder in 10 games

 

[Nicknack]

coaches and some fans just ignore that tying to get to overtime doesn't mean you'll win in overtime.

cross that bridge when we get there stupid thinking

If you go for it and don't get the first down, you don't get to the bridge either. No one here assumes we automatically win by forcing OT. Come on.

 

[Millhouse]

If you go for it and don't get the first down, you don't get to the bridge either. No one here assumes we automatically win by forcing OT. Come on.

Good luck coming up with any non crazy assumptions that make the expected values favor kicking there

Upperdecker thinks that Zeus will help us and that distance doesn't factor into fg%

Maybe you can do it better

 

[sufandu]

A lot of people are ragging on Andre for the miss, and while it is true that he has struggled this year, a 48 yarder for any kicker is not a gimme. We have had many kickers in the past that would not have even been trotted onto the field for a 48 yarder. I didn't realize that the chance of success was as low as 60% but then you factor in the laces being the wrong way and it was doomed to fail.

I was very surprised that we didn't go for it in that situation.

I think most are ragging on Dino for expecting him to make it. With the way Andre is kicking this year, I expected him to miss, so I'm not down on him for it. We need to go on 4th and at least get him closer there. He's not the Groza Andre anymore.

 

[Chip]

in OT you dont have to score a TD to win, Clemson was gonna struggle to score like they did all game. the gods have to help us sometime this season..

if 47 yds is a long FG then what is a short one? he didnt even kick it 47 yds anyway. just a horrible kick.

If you think 4th and 1 is 20% chance and Clemson with those tall receivers will struggle when starting at the 25, then I guess the discussion is over.

 

[Millhouse]

Personally I hate this decision.

That makes one of us

 

[Nicknack]

Maybe you can do it better

Cool, we agree on something!

 

[Millhouse]

Cool, we agree on something!

Go ahead then

 

[Millhouse]

If you think 4th and 1 is 20% chance and Clemson with those tall receivers will struggle when starting at the 25, then I guess the discussion is over.

He did a much better job proving how bad the decision was than I ever could

 

[Nicknack]

Go ahead then

Will do, thanks!

 

[Ozcuse]

Dino should paste this to the top of his Special Teams sheet.

 

[Crusty]

Kicking implies insanely high confidence in Szmyt and insanely low confidence in Shrader/Tucker.

Assumptions
the odds of a 48 yard make is 60%. I don't actually believe it's that high I'm proving a point
the odds of Clemson not scoring after a made kick 90%
the odds of converting a 4th and 1 are 50%.
the odds of winning in overtime are 40%
the odds of making a shorter FG given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 80%
the odds of scoring a TD given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 20%

Odds of winning if you kick. 60%*90%*40% = 22% chance of winning with crazy high expectations of a made kick

Odds of winning in regulation or overtime if you go for it (50%*20%)+(50%*80%*40%)=10%+16% = 26% chance of winning

I think the odds of a made 48 yarder are 25% which makes it a 9% chance of winning in Overtime
I think the odds of a made fg after converting a first down is really 50%

In that case, the odds of winning by kicking on 4th and 1 are 9% and the odds of winning by going for it are 20%

It was a terrible decision and that's not even factoring how it was to not know ahead of time what you'd do if you didn't get it on third down.

My initial reaction is that your odds are too generous. So many things can go wrong with any field goal - bad snap, bad hold (which is what happened) or poor blocking, Add in Andrés troubles from >40 and the odds cannot be better than 50%.

I also think Clemson's odds of not scoring after a make are <90%.

However, my biggest peeve is that we never seem to anticipate in game decisions. Don't we know what we will/want to do on 4th and 1 down 3 pts with 38 seconds left beforehand? Everything is a spur-of-the-moment seat-of-the-pants decision.

 

[AZOrange]

Dino should paste this to the top of his Special Teams sheet.


View attachment 208810

I wonder what those numbers look like his freshman season. I recall him being deadly accurate but not long

 

[AZOrange]

My initial reaction is that your odds are too generous. So many things can go wrong with any field goal - bad snap, bad hold (which is what happened) or poor blocking, Add in Andrés troubles from >40 and the odds cannot be better than 50%.

I also think Clemson's odds of not scoring after a make are <90%.

However, my biggest peeve is that we never seem to anticipate in game decisions. Don't we know what we will/want to do on 4th and 1 down 3 pts with 38 seconds left beforehand? Everything is a spur-of-the-moment seat-of-the-pants decision.

That’s my whole problem with this staff. Completely unprepared.

 

[Deleted member 8116]

Prior to that kick he was 14/22 in career FG’s 40-49 yards, so that’s a little over 63%. However, he has struggled this year being only 1/3.

 

[Millhouse]

My initial reaction is that your odds are too generous. So many things can go wrong with any field goal - bad snap, bad hold (which is what happened) or poor blocking, Add in Andrés troubles from >40 and the odds cannot be better than 50%.

I also think Clemson's odds of not scoring after a make are <90%.

However, my biggest peeve is that we never seem to anticipate in game decisions. Don't we know what we will/want to do on 4th and 1 down 3 pts with 38 seconds left beforehand? Everything is a spur-of-the-moment seat-of-the-pants decision.

I made my odds generous on purpose to prove the point, even with generous odds, it was dumb. With the odds that we'd agree are more accurate, it's really dumb

 

[upperdeck]

i didnt think he would make the kick at 30 yds but I still would kick it from there..

 

[Millhouse]

i didnt think he would make the kick at 30 yds but I still would kick it from there..

interesting approach to do something you don't think will work

 

[gmoney44]

Small sample size. 47 yarders were 50%.

Dungey was a master at this. We got easy first downs and lots of free plays by him drawing the off sides.

 

[suorange08]

the gods have to help us sometime this season..

Liberty game?

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

Kicking implies insanely high confidence in Szmyt and insanely low confidence in Shrader/Tucker.

Assumptions
the odds of a 48 yard make is 60%. I don't actually believe it's that high I'm proving a point
the odds of Clemson not scoring after a made kick 90%
the odds of converting a 4th and 1 are 50%.
the odds of winning in overtime are 40%
the odds of making a shorter FG given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 80%
the odds of scoring a TD given that you converted the 4th and 1 are 20%

Odds of winning if you kick. 60%*90%*40% = 22% chance of winning with crazy high expectations of a made kick

Odds of winning in regulation or overtime if you go for it (50%*20%)+(50%*80%*40%)=10%+16% = 26% chance of winning

I think the odds of a made 48 yarder are 25% which makes it a 9% chance of winning in Overtime
I think the odds of a made fg after converting a first down is really 50%

In that case, the odds of winning by kicking on 4th and 1 are 9% and the odds of winning by going for it are 20%

It was a terrible decision and that's not even factoring how it was to not know ahead of time what you'd do if you didn't get it on third down.

Whatever Dino thought his go zone was to start the year, subtract at least 10 yards from that after more than 1/2 of this years game time body of work. I’m thinking that field goal range line you see on TV exceeds no more than the 20 for Andre to close out the year. Play call accordingly

 

[David321]

Given how Szmyt has played recently, I can’t see how Dino could trust him in that spot, other than Dino was scared to make the decision so he went with the conservative play call knowing the kicker would be blamed by many. Sure, it’s conjecture, but it makes logical sense given the circumstances.