Final Four Predictions 2023

[Shrmdougluvr]

It seems a little strange that we haven't gotten some sort of top 20 yet, particularly with the season starting so early. I guess IL stopped doing the Face-off magazine, which gave us a top twenty in December in the past.

USA Lacrosse Preseason Top 20 is out (not sure hold old):

1. UVA
2. UMD
3. GTown
4. Cornell
5. Princeton
6. ND
7. Duke
8. Yale
9. Penn
10. Rutgers
11. OSU
12. Brown
13. Denver
14. Delaware
15. Harvard
16. BU
17. UNC
18. JU
19. Navy
20. SJU

Rec votes: Richmond; SU; Utah; 'Nova

 

[wgdsr]

Forgot about Hincks, but I would bet he is still a downgrade from McElroy.

Will believe it when I see it for Minicus being a better dodger than Dordevic and Bundy. That is quite the claim. Obviously a different situation, but I remember what a monster Griffin Brown looked like for Colgate when he was their main star and he ended up looking more like a solid second line mid after the jump in competition when he transferred to MD. Dordevic and Bundy have already produced against top defenses top cover guys. Colgate does not face a ton of elite defenses. Dont think Solomon and Kelly are good enough to start at attack on an elite offense, but they may be more scary coming out of the box against ssdms.

agree with all.

 

[wgdsr]

Virginia - Scary. They really didn't graduate anyone besides Matt Moore, and picked up McConvey, Miezan, and the number 2 freshman class. There may not be a bigger / deeper roster in D1. Schutz could be a major problem. I've heard he looked as good or better than Shellenberger all fall. Reminds me of a more athletic Will Yeatman. X-Factor is LaSalla, he seems to be a guy who either dominates or stuggles badly.
Maryland - Hard to pick against them at this point. Their jump from 2021 to 2022 was due to having zero players in their offensive top 6 who you could hide a SS on (Maltz/Bubba were those players in 2021). It was pick your poison all year. With their top 5 points producers all gone this season they won't be nearly as formidable in 2023, but their defense will keep them at an elite level.
Duke - Coming off the embarrassment of last year, they should be an easy group to motivate. I actually think the graduation of Nakeie will open things up on the offense. They had too many initiators and not enough off-ball players. If they consolidate more touches around O'Neill/Schelling and let the rest of the cast dodge bad approaches they should become more efficient. Reed Landin is a breakout candidate this year.

Having a hard time with #4. I can't pick G-Town until they prove they can stand up to the pressures of May. For ND, Fake/Conlin are a clear downgrade from Cohen/Reynolds. Fake has been on a downward trajectory since his great freshman year plus Hallenbeck is a big loss at SSDM. Yale doesn't have the defense. Cornell/Penn are intriguing.

Give me Harvard as my darkhorse #4 pick. They played a TON of freshmen last year and looked very formidable down the stretch. Those Yale/Princeton wins were eye opening. I think this group takes a massive leap next year under coach Byrne.

lasalla only struggled against wierman. who is pretty good.

umd to me got better because they handled the ball better. didn't seem to turn the ball over as much (didn't look at stats), got more good shots as a result and of course they bury them and simply... wierman came back greatly improved.

outlier pick of harvard. don't know enough about them but for byrne and a couple players. on the rise maybe.

 

[wgdsr]

I don't think Cornell will be bad next year, I just think they are overvalued right now based on how far they made it in the tournament last year. I think they could be better (like you said, Cascaden helps the face-off, the Bryant transfer along with Kirst improvement might help replace Piateli), but I think some other teams may have passed them.

I think UVA will be very good next year, but their two big losses to Maryland makes me nervous. They were obliterated by the Terps, not once but twice last year. Good teams can suffer bad losses (2004 SU lost 17-5 to Hopkins, went on to win the NC). But it still sticks out like a warning sign to me. Plus they lose Matt Moore who was one of their all time great players. People have penciled in Schutz to take over from him, but that's not a sure thing. They are a team that has a lot of veterans returning, is it possible that things have gotten stale in C-Ville? Sometimes success can breed passivity.

I do wonder if the ACC will have a bounce back year. They probably won't get all five teams into the tournament, but last year was something no one could have predicted. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if three ACC teams were in the Final Four. I have to imagine things will revert to a more normal season with three ACC teams in the Tournament and at least one in the FF.

tough crowd on the hoos, powellfan!!! 2 champs, then run into a juggarnaut and stale?!?!
i also have questions about:
- schutz at attack. he and cormier seem like similar players other than some more dodging from schutz, and what happens to the ride? donezo? he seemed a v good fit and matchup problem at mid.
- our defensive performance and gameplan vs terps (and duke) were... concerning to say the least. and shorties, while lots of candidates, need to get better.
- tiffany's insistence on running lasalla out there to the point of him breaking down is no bueno. he's seen a lot of faceoffs in 4+ years, it adds up.

 

[Zack80]

USA Lacrosse Preseason Top 20 is out (not sure hold old):

1. UVA
2. UMD
3. GTown
4. Cornell
5. Princeton
6. ND
7. Duke
8. Yale
9. Penn
10. Rutgers
11. OSU
12. Brown
13. Denver
14. Delaware
15. Harvard
16. BU
17. UNC
18. JU
19. Navy
20. SJU

Rec votes: Richmond; SU; Utah; 'Novarankings

That is not the same as their early rankings.
The top ten looks good. Although I might put Georgetown down at #6.
I don't know if I would put UNC in the top 20 with Pietramala out.

 

[Zack80]

tough crowd on the hoos, powellfan!!! 2 champs, then run into a juggarnaut and stale?!?!
i also have questions about:
- schutz at attack. he and cormier seem like simr players other than some more dodging from schutz, and what happens to the ride? donezo? he seemed a v good fit and matchup problem at mid.
- our defensive performance and gameplan vs terps (and duke) were... concerning to say the least. and shorties, while lots of candidates, need to get better.
- tiffany's insistence on running lasalla out there to the point of him breaking down is no bueno. he's seen a lot of faceoffs in 4+ years, it adds up.

Tiffany's comment on Dickson tends to indicate he is considering Dickson for the 3rd attack spot.

Xander Dickson

virginiasports.com

 

[wgdsr]

Tiffany's comment on Dickson tends to indicate he is considering Dickson for the 3rd attack spot.

Xander Dickson

virginiasports.com

yeah, had seen that earlier today, similar comments on schutz. probably thought they'd have it figured out by now, but they both missed time in the fall. my sense since jump was that they'd be running at least 4 thru there and maybe they will be 2 of them. they've done it before, maryland's been doing it for a while.

 

[Zack80]

I noticed you lame analysis on UMd on the USA top 20 thread on fanlax, wgdsr. Do you think running down UVa's competitors makes UVa a better team?

 

[nyclax]

LOL chased him down onto a different forum!!!! now that's dedication. you can't escape wgdsr

 

[wgdsr]

LOL chased him down onto a different forum!!!! now that's dedication. you can't escape wgdsr

crazy.

 

[wgdsr]

I noticed you lame analysis on UMd on the USA top 20 thread on fanlax, wgdsr. Do you think running down UVa's competitors makes UVa a better team?

all i said was they graduated a bunch of guys, which is why preseason gurus might not crown the defending champ a #1. that's not analysis.
preseason polls (and aa lists) are fodder.
you mad?

 

[Zack80]

all i said was they graduated a bunch of guys, which is why preseason gurus might not crown the defending champ a #1. that's not analysis.
preseason polls (and aa lists) are fodder.
you mad?

It was more your way of counting. You make a big deal of Maryland losing 5 of their top 6 scorers, when Maryland's 7th scorer, Murphy (39 pts) scored as much as UVa's 4th leading scorer, Dickson. Maltz was reduced to a reserve role last season (17 points), but scored 50 pts 2 years ago. Maryland's 2nd line midfielders, Jack Koras and Jack Brennan did well, and both look like they would get around 30 points just by the increase of minutes moving to the 1st line - for UVa Connors scored 34 and Schutz 30 last year. Maryland also has 2 former 5 star recruits looking to work into the line-up in Daniel Kelly and Eric Spanos.
In the end, losing Malever does hurt the Terps. Their offense doesn't look to be as good.

The 2 close d-men Maryland returns were both All-Americans, Makar 1st team and Zappitello 3rd team. Rahill played well for the Terps last year, but UMd has good replacements in Colin Burlace and Will Schaller.

Maryland's returning LSM, Geppert, was an HM AA, and the #2 LSM Prybylski departs but UMd appears to have good replacements in Jack McDonald and AJ Larkin.

Maryland does lose 4 ssdms, but gets a former regular Coffman back, who was injured last year. Also pulled in a nice transfer in Lacey.

You don't even mention 1st team AA FO man, Weirman. McNaney save percentage was like .100 higher than Nunes last year.

Maryland returns 6 All-Americans.

I don't disagree with your premise that it is reasonable to pick some team in front of Maryland, particularly with Malever out, as Maryland has lost a lot. Your way of presenting it, reminds me a lot of Iniside Lacrosse, which always seems to focus on what Maryland has lost, and not what they have.

 

[nyclax]

It was more your way of counting. You make a big deal of Maryland losing 5 of their top 6 scorers, when Maryland's 7th scorer, Murphy (39 pts) scored as much as UVa's 4th leading scorer, Dickson. Maltz was reduced to a reserve role last season (17 points), but scored 50 pts 2 years ago. Maryland's 2nd line midfielders, Jack Koras and Jack Brennan did well, and both look like they would get around 30 points just by the increase of minutes moving to the 1st line - for UVa Connors scored 34 and Schutz 30 last year. Maryland also has 2 former 5 star recruits looking to work into the line-up in Daniel Kelly and Eric Spanos.
In the end, losing Malever does hurt the Terps. Their offense doesn't look to be as good.

The 2 close d-men Maryland returns were both All-Americans, Makar 1st team and Zappitello 3rd team. Rahill played well for the Terps last year, but UMd has good replacements in Colin Burlace and Will Schaller.

Maryland's returning LSM, Geppert, was an HM AA, and the #2 LSM Prybylski departs but UMd appears to have good replacements in Jack McDonald and AJ Larkin.

Maryland does lose 4 ssdms, but gets a former regular Coffman back, who was injured last year. Also pulled in a nice transfer in Lacey.

You don't even mention 1st team AA FO man, Weirman. McNaney save percentage was like .100 higher than Nunes last year.

Maryland returns 6 All-Americans.

I don't disagree with your premise that it is reasonable to pick some team in front of Maryland, particularly with Malever out, as Maryland has lost a lot. Your way of presenting it, reminds me a lot of Iniside Lacrosse, which always seems to focus on what Maryland has lost, and not what they have.

how do you still have such a victim mentality after your team won a championship?

anyway, you answered your own question. "Their offense doesn't look to be as good." Of course people are going to focus on what they lost in the context of a discussion about why they might be preseason #2 instead of #1. you seem to need people to be showering them with praise and it's weird.

i for one think the losses at SSDM are as or even more important than the losses on offense. Puglise was the beating heart of that team and won't be replaced by committee. Fairman also did a lot and i'm not sure what he brought can be replicated. The Lacey kid is getting a major step up in competition.

 

[Zack80]

how do you still have such a victim mentality after your team won a championship?

anyway, you answered your own question. "Their offense doesn't look to be as good." Of course people are going to focus on what they lost in the context of a discussion about why they might be preseason #2 instead of #1. you seem to need people to be showering them with praise and it's weird.

i for one think the losses at SSDM are as or even more important than the losses on offense. Puglise was the beating heart of that team and won't be replaced by committee. Fairman also did a lot and i'm not sure what he brought can be replicated. The Lacey kid is getting a major step up in competition.

- This spring is a new year

- Maryland's offense doesn't look to be as good as last year, but they went undefeated last year. I don't need people showering Maryland with praise, but I don't need people ignoring their positives either

- I think you are wrong about the ssdms, because Coffman was emerging as a star at ssdm in 2021. The ssdm group won't be as strong as last year,, but I don't think it will be a problem. There is also a potential for top recruits like Schaller and Larkin to improve the overall defense.

 

[nyclax]

I don't need people ignoring their positives either

nobody is ignoring anything. implicit in a #2 ranking is a lot of positives. the argument is that they lose enough vis a vis virginia to put them about even or possibly slightly below the hoos. that's it.

The ssdm group won't be as strong as last year

cool, glad you agree

 

[JeremyCuse]

nobody is ignoring anything. implicit in a #2 ranking is a lot of positives. the argument is that they lose enough vis a vis virginia to put them about even or possibly slightly below the hoos. that's it.


cool, glad you agree

Ya I don't see Maryland at #2 as any sort of downgrade or negative. All you need to do is look at what Maryland lost offensively and what UVA brings back, it gives them a slight edge despite Maryland having the edge at FOGO and in Goalie. Maryland has done an incredible job of reloading the lst few years, really nuts when you consider the loss of Bernhardt, but at some point it's going to catch up for a year and this maybe the year. hard to lose that much to graduation and simply not miss a beat, I don't care who you are or what year it is. I saw it with SU, Princeton, Duke etc in their prime eras, it always catches up eventually. That said both Virginia and Maryland should be very good to excellent and it wouldn't shock anyone if they met again deep in the tourney.

 

[Zack80]

nobody is ignoring anything. implicit in a #2 ranking is a lot of positives. the argument is that they lose enough vis a vis virginia to put them about even or possibly slightly below the hoos. that's it.


cool, glad you agree

Duh. My post was replying to a wgdsr post where he just focused on on Maryland's losses.

We don't agree about Maryland's ssdms. You view it as a major problem area and I don't.

 

[Zack80]

Ya I don't see Maryland at #2 as any sort of downgrade or negative. All you need to do is look at what Maryland lost offensively and what UVA brings back, it gives them a slight edge despite Maryland having the edge at FOGO and in Goalie. Maryland has done an incredible job of reloading the lst few years, really nuts when you consider the loss of Bernhardt, but at some point it's going to catch up for a year and this maybe the year. hard to lose that much to graduation and simply not miss a beat, I don't care who you are or what year it is. I saw it with SU, Princeton, Duke etc in their prime eras, it always catches up eventually. That said both Virginia and Maryland should be very good to excellent and it wouldn't shock anyone if they met again deep in the tourney.

But is what UVa brings back on offense truly that outstanding. They return 5 of their top 6 scorers, but 3 of those only scored in the 30s, which is good but not great.

 

[JeremyCuse]

But is what UVa brings back on offense truly that outstanding. They return 5 of their top 6 scorers, but 3 of those only scored in the 30s, which is good but not great.

They bring back Shellenberger, probably the top player in the country or at worst top 3. With three guys in the 30's you would expect them to take another step forward and probably 2 of the 3 will now be in the 40's. Add Schutz and Mconvey into the mix and watch out. All of that without mentioning the frosh guys.

 

[DvlsAdvocat]

But is what UVa brings back on offense truly that outstanding. They return 5 of their top 6 scorers, but 3 of those only scored in the 30s, which is good but not great.

Yes. Put any of those five guys + McConvey on any other roster and they would be in the starting lineup (maybe not Cormier if that role is filled). And who knows what they'll get out of Sutherland, Terrenzi, Miezan, etc. They are pretty loaded.

 

[Zack80]

Yes. Put any of those five guys + McConvey on any other roster and they would be in the starting lineup (maybe not Cormier if that role is filled). And who knows what they'll get out of Sutherland, Terrenzi, Miezan, etc. They are pretty loaded.

But last season, Connor, Cormier, Schutz, and Dickson wouldn't have started for the Terps, much as Maltz, J.Brennan, J.Koras, D.Kelly, and Spanos didn't start for the Terps.

 

[DvlsAdvocat]

Correct, I was referring to this year. I'd argue all six offensive starters on last years Terp team would have started for any team in the country.

But that was last year, five of those guys aren't around any more. I thought we were talking about comparing this years version of each team, not living in the past?

 

[karhre2003]

When did the Syracuse forum turn into the Maryland/UVA forum.

 

[orange79]

When did the Syracuse forum turn into the Maryland/UVA forum.

As long as they are civil and not trolling.

 

[Zack80]

When did the Syracuse forum turn into the Maryland/UVA forum.

I tend to feel that there are a number of Syracuse fans here that have a more well-rounded view of lacrosse and are interested in their competition and future opponents. Some of them might even dare to watch a regular season game that didn't involve Syracuse.