Flu hits SU and Onondaga County

[Trueblue25]

I'm sure there were...they are college students

I bet. Would explain how sluggish the team looked but of course its nothing more than speculation

 

[Chris02M]

Just like the COVID-19 vaccines though, Groves said that it takes 14 days after being vaccinated for a person to be protected against the flu.

I got my flu vax in October, and got sick a few days later.

this year the flu vax is more like50 -50 with no one getting the flu last year

 

[djorange1989]

I don't know what to think. We've got a million and one excuses for bad games. Enough with the excuses. Start winning. Period.

A ton of kids with the flu(if that is what happened last week) is a decent excuse. Didn’t have tape on so and so kid from our opponent therefore we got hammered? Not a decent excuse

 

[All4SU]

Actually we do know it’s published. Yeah, not technically zero, but negligible compared to other years.
Testing is generally molecular and is accurate.

https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker

Is NY the entire country? Are false positives -Covid or non - a thing? Was self-reporting 100%? And then there’s the big one…Do trust them? And their competence? For the last time, I do not. They have earned my mistrust, and a large part of my family has been in healthcare, so I have heard things all my life.

 

[rrlbees]

Is NY the entire country? Are false positives -Covid or non - a thing? Was self-reporting 100%? And then there’s the big one…Do trust them? And their competence? For the last time, I do not. They have earned my mistrust, and a large part of my family has been in healthcare, so I have heard things all my life.

I fully trust the tests and the numbers in Onondaga county. And yes there are false positives but a very small number. There’s also false negatives.

 

[SuFTW]

Is NY the entire country? Are false positives -Covid or non - a thing? Was self-reporting 100%? And then there’s the big one…Do trust them? And their competence? For the last time, I do not. They have earned my mistrust, and a large part of my family has been in healthcare, so I have heard things all my life.

You are way over worrying about this. Even if you allow a 25% error the numbers don’t change much relatively speaking.
False positives are negligible, reporting is electronic and mandatory. New York with NYC is certainly representative of a large portion of the country, but sure you could add a few more cases in parts of the country that didn’t take the lockdown seriously.

 

[All4SU]

You are way over worrying about this. Even if you allow a 25% error the numbers don’t change much relatively speaking.
False positives are negligible, reporting is electronic and mandatory. New York with NYC is certainly representative of a large portion of the country, but sure you could add a few more cases in parts of the country that didn’t take the lockdown seriously.

I don’t worry about it. In fact I worry about all of this less than just about anyone I know.

 

[SUfaninAZ]

Wow, first time I've heard the word, Flu, in a while.

 

[XC Cuse]

There's a phenomenon called viral interference during pandemics. Basically a dominant virus pushes out other respiratory viruses while a pandemic is new. Once the new virus becomes endemic, the viruses being pushed out return. This has already been observed with RSV returning in the fall, and the flu returning this winter. There's very little evidence masks have much effect on influenza transmission, hence there is a massive spike in influenza cases in the northeast, yet still heavy masking, especially on college campuses.

 

[rrlbees]

There's a phenomenon called viral interference during pandemics. Basically a dominant virus pushes out other respiratory viruses while a pandemic is new. Once the new virus becomes endemic, the viruses being pushed out return. This has already been observed with RSV returning in the fall, and the flu returning this winter. There's very little evidence masks have much effect on influenza transmission, hence there is a massive spike in influenza cases in the northeast, yet still heavy masking, especially on college campuses.

Masks most certainly provide a layer of protection from the flu. The flu and covid are both transmitted the same way and there are plenty of studies saying as much. Are they 100%? Heck no, nothing is. The worry now is a twindemic. RSV and now the flu could come back with a rage because the protections aren’t there as last year. Not just masks but social distancing, kids being out of school, businesses being shut down etc.

 

[llandz]

The campus is very masked up in classroom buildings, and places like Schine, the library etc. But they are not in dorms and living places. That is where this is spreading. I was very impressed with the level of seriousness the students took in wearing their masks while spending several days on campus a couple of weeks ago.

In Arizona, they also tested for both COVID and the flu last year. While there was some flu, the numbers were extremely low here.

Currently a number of college campuses throughout the US are struggling with flu cases.

 

[SUGIANT]

Just like the COVID-19 vaccines though, Groves said that it takes 14 days after being vaccinated for a person to be protected against the flu.

I got my flu vax in October, and got sick a few days later.

It takes 14 days to be at the peak. There’s still some immunity as you go along. Of course that’s if they’ve guessed right on what flu we’ll see.

 

[XC Cuse]

Masks most certainly provide a layer of protection from the flu. The flu and covid are both transmitted the same way and there are plenty of studies saying as much. Are they 100%? Heck no, nothing is. The worry now is a twindemic. RSV and now the flu could come back with a rage because the protections aren’t there as last year. Not just masks but social distancing, kids being out of school, businesses being shut down etc.

Yes and no, both are spread via droplets, but Covid is spread more through airbourne, whereas influenza is surface transmission. Some studies suggest a possibility of airborne influenza spread, but most common mechanism seems surface. I don't want to make any definitive statements, but from most readings and study's the two viruses differ in spread in many cases. A pretty interesting article below about the disappearing flu last year.

Disappearing flu

 

[FasterCuse]

Is NY the entire country? Are false positives -Covid or non - a thing? Was self-reporting 100%? And then there’s the big one…Do trust them? And their competence? For the last time, I do not. They have earned my mistrust, and a large part of my family has been in healthcare, so I have heard things all my life.

I trust them more than my Google degree and Aunt Judy's Facebook degree in epidemiology.

 

[rrlbees]

Yes and no, both are spread via droplets, but Covid is spread more through airbourne, whereas influenza is surface transmission. Some studies suggest a possibility of airborne influenza spread, but most common mechanism seems surface. I don't want to make any definitive statements, but from most readings and study's the two viruses differ in spread in many cases. A pretty interesting article below about the disappearing flu last year.

Disappearing flu

Thanks for the article. Interesting but too many holes in it that also leaves out a lot of context so I’m not buying it.

More than once they say that “if masks basically eliminated influenza”. Nobody nor any study has said it was masks alone. It was a host of things.

They don’t even mention kids staying home from school, parents working from home or even leaving jobs, many businesses being closed or cutting back staff, etc. Those greatly reduced the spread of influenza and Covid.

They talk like covid and influenza are equals as to being spread. They aren’t. While both are transmitted the same way, covid is more contagious, spreads more easily, spreads faster, takes longer usually to present symptoms and a person is contagious for longer. That’s why there were super spreader events whereas we don’t hear much if at all of super-spreader events of influenza.

There are many other facts and context they leave out. As to how they are transmitted, while both can be spread via surface contact it’s more prevalent through the air via droplets. Every medical person I’ve ever spoken to about covid and the flu (and a couple other viruses we don’t know a lot about) say the same.

As does the CDC.

“People with flu can spread it to others up to about 6 feet away. Most experts think that flu viruses spread mainly by droplets made when people with flu cough, sneeze or talk. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. Less often, a person might get flu by touching a surface or object that has flu virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.”

 

[XC Cuse]

Thanks for the article. Interesting but too many holes in it that also leaves out a lot of context so I’m not buying it.

More than once they say that “if masks basically eliminated influenza”. Nobody nor any study has said it was masks alone. It was a host of things.

They don’t even mention kids staying home from school, parents working from home or even leaving jobs, many businesses being closed or cutting back staff, etc. Those greatly reduced the spread of influenza and Covid.

They talk like covid and influenza are equals as to being spread. They aren’t. While both are transmitted the same way, covid is more contagious, spreads more easily, spreads faster, takes longer usually to present symptoms and a person is contagious for longer. That’s why there were super spreader events whereas we don’t hear much if at all of super-spreader events of influenza.

There are many other facts and context they leave out. As to how they are transmitted, while both can be spread via surface contact it’s more prevalent through the air via droplets. Every medical person I’ve ever spoken to about covid and the flu (and a couple other viruses we don’t know a lot about) say the same.

As does the CDC.

“People with flu can spread it to others up to about 6 feet away. Most experts think that flu viruses spread mainly by droplets made when people with flu cough, sneeze or talk. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. Less often, a person might get flu by touching a surface or object that has flu virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.”

My main question would be, if masks stop the spread of influenza, and on campus mask rules remain the same essentially as last year, with slight more leeway outdoors, which doesn't appear to be an environment Covid nor flu spread, the flu would continue to not be around. It has to be another reason, and I'd say Covid becoming endemic is a far more logical answer. I'd also like to point out, many Asian countries masked regularly before Covid, and it never stopped the spread of influenza. I'm quite dubious on efficacy of mask wearing, especially when the most comprehensive studies have mask efficacy around 15% pre delta, one would assume lower with a more contagious variant, the efficacy based on danish study. All that said, I'm sure its more nuanced than one factor, but if masks were a panacea, we would be seeing far smaller surges of Covid and influenza the last year and a half. Especially when comparing mask stringent states, to less stringent states. The curve remains effectively the same, with seasonality being the largest factor in transmission. Florida having a surge in the summer, and waning in the fall, while the northeast had a mostly low rate of virus in summer, until a bigger up tick once fall hit. I think a post study of all the data will sort itself out, in the meantime, hopefully the team and community can stay healthy as possible, and we get one more darn win for a bowl game!

 

[rrlbees]

My main question would be, if masks stop the spread of influenza, and on campus mask rules remain the same essentially as last year, with slight more leeway outdoors, which doesn't appear to be an environment Covid nor flu spread, the flu would continue to not be around. It has to be another reason, and I'd say Covid becoming endemic is a far more logical answer. I'd also like to point out, many Asian countries masked regularly before Covid, and it never stopped the spread of influenza. I'm quite dubious on efficacy of mask wearing, especially when the most comprehensive studies have mask efficacy around 15% pre delta, one would assume lower with a more contagious variant, the efficacy based on danish study. All that said, I'm sure its more nuanced than one factor, but if masks were a panacea, we would be seeing far smaller surges of Covid and influenza the last year and a half. Especially when comparing mask stringent states, to less stringent states. The curve remains effectively the same, with seasonality being the largest factor in transmission. Florida having a surge in the summer, and waning in the fall, while the northeast had a mostly low rate of virus in summer, until a bigger up tick once fall hit. I think a post study of all the data will sort itself out, in the meantime, hopefully the team and community can stay healthy as possible, and we get one more darn win for a bowl game!

You sound like that article. Masks do not stop the spread. It helps stop the spread and is a significant tool in doing so especially when other protocols are included. It’s a fact and it’s been proven.

The rules at SU are greatly different than last year. School was closed to I person learning between November and February. I’m sure that helped a lot. As to specifically to masks? Sure they are still required in buildings but last year the Dome wasn’t open for football or basketball and the students don’t wear masks in the Dome. And above all else, there’s an article someplace on the internet that says the SU campus is about 96% vaccinated for Covid. That’s why the spread on campus isn’t as bad as last year. I don’t know what the flu vaccination rate is but I bet it is far lower since it wasn’t required like Covid vaccination was.

I don’t know where you got that 15% number from but a recent global study says wearing a mask cuts incidents by 53%. That’s a big difference.

 

[XC Cuse]

You sound like that article. Masks do not stop the spread. It helps stop the spread and is a significant tool in doing so especially when other protocols are included. It’s a fact and it’s been proven.

The rules at SU are greatly different than last year. School was closed to I person learning between November and February. I’m sure that helped a lot. As to specifically to masks? Sure they are still required in buildings but last year the Dome wasn’t open for football or basketball and the students don’t wear masks in the Dome. And above all else, there’s an article someplace on the internet that says the SU campus is about 96% vaccinated for Covid. That’s why the spread on campus isn’t as bad as last year. I don’t know what the flu vaccination rate is but I bet it is far lower since it wasn’t required like Covid vaccination was.

I don’t know where you got that 15% number from but a recent global study says wearing a mask cuts incidents by 53%. That’s a big difference.

The biggest problem with the hypotheses masks eliminated the flu, is the fact viral interference has occurred with other pandemic viruses. All of which masks, distancing, and other draconian measures weren't instituted during other pandemics. Yet its a phenomenon that occurs during other pandemics. That assessment doesn't cut it.

Not to mention, if masks were 50% effective, you'd expect heavily masked counties to have much better epidemiological curves compared to less mask stringent counties. That simply doesn't bear out in real world data. Almost every curve is nearly identical based on similar climate areas. As for 15% efficacy of masks, article below from Reuters summarizing the data. There is also an NIH study showing negligible effect on hospitalization, resources or mortality of instituted mask mandates. Below is just one example of a graph of mask mandate, then cases skyrocketing post mandate, my claim isn't masks cause soaring cases, but they have far less effect than 50% efficacy.

Also to suggest things are a lot different on campus is false, last fall, yes the campus shut down in November, but spring term ran much like current rules which have been in place on campus currently. I see it daily working on campus having to abide by the guidelines. As for vaccines, absolutely they are having the effect keeping cases relatively low on campus. But lets be honest, the dome being full and mask scarce is essentially the same or slightly better than being crammed together partying at a house party or frat. I can assure you those occurred all spring, I saw the kids congregating or partying as I walked to my car, I can assure you, spring isn't much different than today.

Last point, the flu currently being spread is flu A which is less stable and more prone to mutation, so historically the flu shot is far less effective protecting against that strain, than flu B which is stable, and less prone to yearly mutations.

Danish study

Study of Bexar county

 

[SuFTW]

The biggest problem with the hypotheses masks eliminated the flu, is the fact viral interference has occurred with other pandemic viruses. All of which masks, distancing, and other draconian measures weren't instituted during other pandemics. Yet its a phenomenon that occurs during other pandemics. That assessment doesn't cut it.

Not to mention, if masks were 50% effective, you'd expect heavily masked counties to have much better epidemiological curves compared to less mask stringent counties. That simply doesn't bear out in real world data. Almost every curve is nearly identical based on similar climate areas. As for 15% efficacy of masks, article below from Reuters summarizing the data. There is also an NIH study showing negligible effect on hospitalization, resources or mortality of instituted mask mandates. Below is just one example of a graph of mask mandate, then cases skyrocketing post mandate, my claim isn't masks cause soaring cases, but they have far less effect than 50% efficacy.

Also to suggest things are a lot different on campus is false, last fall, yes the campus shut down in November, but spring term ran much like current rules which have been in place on campus currently. I see it daily working on campus having to abide by the guidelines. As for vaccines, absolutely they are having the effect keeping cases relatively low on campus. But lets be honest, the dome being full and mask scarce is essentially the same or slightly better than being crammed together partying at a house party or frat. I can assure you those occurred all spring, I saw the kids congregating or partying as I walked to my car, I can assure you, spring isn't much different than today.

Last point, the flu currently being spread is flu A which is less stable and more prone to mutation, so historically the flu shot is far less effective protecting against that strain, than flu B which is stable, and less prone to yearly mutations.

Danish study

Study of Bexar county

View attachment 210895

The masks may or may not have helped some with the flu, but the main factor was human behavior. Way less local and international travel, spacing between people in public spaces, less people out etc. Those factors are pretty much out the window now.

 

[XC Cuse]

The masks may or may not have helped some with the flu, but the main factor was human behavior. Way less local and international travel, spacing between people in public spaces, less people out etc. Those factors are pretty much out the window now.

I'd argue by last winter, most people were back to congregating, especially in states with less restrictions like Florida, Texas etc, yet flu still wasn't around. Im not sure that point holds water. Id guess it has a small effect, but when states and counties operated much differently across the board restriction wise, yet flu still remained very low, not to mention RSV and other respiratory viruses also disappeared, viral interference however its mechanism works, seems more likely.

 

[SuFTW]

I'd argue by last winter, most people were back to congregating, especially in states with less restrictions like Florida, Texas etc, yet flu still wasn't around. Im not sure that point holds water. Id guess it has a small effect, but when states and counties operated much differently across the board restriction wise, yet flu still remained very low, not to mention RSV and other respiratory viruses also disappeared, viral interference however its mechanism works, seems more likely.

No, I disagree entirely. My point absolutely holds water and the flu numbers bear it out. Most people were not back out congregating last winter. Small pockets of the country, but that was after the flu season never took off.

 

[MadNY3]

No, I disagree entirely. My point absolutely holds water and the flu numbers bear it out. Most people were not back out congregating last winter. Small pockets of the country, but that was after the flu season never took off.

Can this thread be bounced to the OT Board? Or are we pretending our performance the last two weeks has stunk because of the flu? Which will lead me to the Loser Excuses Board!

 

[XC Cuse]

No, I disagree entirely. My point absolutely holds water and the flu numbers bear it out. Most people were not back out congregating last winter. Small pockets of the country, but that was after the flu season never took off.

I disagree, as each state can be there own epidemiological curve, and no matter the state, the flu was suppressed. Logic would dictate nationally numbers would be low, but not in states or counties with lax mandates. so, since it was low across the board, no matter the behavior of individuals, that would poke a massive hole in the argument behavior and mandates suppressed transmission. Also as I stated prior, the phenomenon of viral interference occurs in other pandemics where social distancing and other mandates aren't instituted, so that wouldn't explain the phenomenon throughout history occurring when there isn't distancing measures.

 

[SuFTW]

I disagree, as each state can be there own epidemiological curve, and no matter the state, the flu was suppressed. Logic would dictate nationally numbers would be low, but not in states or counties with lax mandates. so, since it was low across the board, no matter the behavior of individuals, that would poke a massive hole in the argument behavior and mandates suppressed transmission. Also as I stated prior, the phenomenon of viral interference occurs in other pandemics where social distancing and other mandates aren't instituted, so that wouldn't explain the phenomenon throughout history occurring when there isn't distancing measures.

The flu is less contagious than covid. The measures in place were enough to slow its spread. Most people did not get covid and yet they did not get the flu either.
Viral interference may have played a part for a few people, but that is not what happened as a whole last year.
Also, there should be some "viral interference effect" this year if this was a significant phenomenon, but there is not.

Here are some articles on the lack of Flu season. No one mentions viral interference.

What Is the Flu?

Learn more from WebMD about the flu, including causes, symptoms, types, risk factors, treatment, and prevention.

www.webmd.com

After Mildest Flu Season Ever, Influenza Experts Wonder What Comes Next

This Medical News feature examines potential scenarios about how severe the upcoming flu season might be, given the dearth of influenza worldwide since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

jamanetwork.com

What Happened To The Flu?

CDC data show 2020-2021 was the mildest flu season on record.

www.forbes.com

Flu Cases Decline Dramatically This Season

Public health measures in place to reduce COVID-19 transmission have helped keep nationwide flu cases extremely low.

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

Flu Has Disappeared for More Than a Year

Mask wearing, social distancing and other steps to stop COVID-19 have also curtailed influenza

www.scientificamerican.com

This year's flu season was virtually nonexistent. That could be bad news for next year.

The flu all but disappeared amid the Covid-19 pandemic, thanks in large part to social distancing measures aimed at reducing the coronavirus's spread. But experts say there could be a downside: Scientists may struggle to create effective vaccines for next year's flu season.

www.advisory.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/10/08/flu-season-covid-shot/

The Pandemic Crushed the Flu—What Happens When It Returns?

Cases of influenza and other respiratory viruses sank dramatically during the pandemic, with potential implications for both people and pathogens.

www.the-scientist.com

Fact check: Flu cases declined during 2020-2021 season compared to previous years – but not by 379M

Flu cases decreased significantly in the 2020-2021 season compared to the previous season. But not to the extent that some social media users claim.

www.usatoday.com