Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4198299, member: 1969"] [B]Conference Tourney Bubble Buster Analysis[/B] The first week of conference tourneys had no bubble busters - the two big risks of causing one , Loyola Chicago and Murray St won their conference tournaments. This week my guess is there will only be 1. And that is Davidson losing in the A-10. There is a chance there could be 2, but I view that as less likely than not. [B]P5+Big East - Low Chance[/B] Other then Syracuse, which has a probability of about 83.7% of winning the ACC tournament its not likely any of the p5+BE have a team on the outside win its conference tourney. It generally happens once every 5-10 years -- and that is not in any individual conference but all conferences. [I]That being said it happened twice last year -- Georgetown and Oregon St -- which was extremely improbable.[/I] I suppose if I had to pick a conference to watch the most for this its the P12. With only 3 auto bids, its just a lower numbers game for them compared to other conferences. I still see it a very unlikely however that one of Arizona, USC, or UCLA does not win that tourney. [B]Atlantic 10 - High Chance - Field vs Davidson[/B] This is a conference that very regularly has a bubble buster. And it will more likely than not have one this year. Davidson probably gets an at-large especially if they avoid a bad loss in the A-10. But it's basically the Field vs Davidson if you are team on the bubble. And you have to like the field. [B]American - Modest Chance - Field vs Houston & Memphis & SMU (sort of)[/B] SMU is sort of an either way as they are the last in per the bracket matrix. If you are a bubble team you want them to lose in the AAC, as long as Houston or Memphis win. I think the chance of a team outside those 3 winning the AAC is quite low -- the best contenders are Temple and Tulane. [B]Mountain West - Low Chance - Field vs Colorado St/Wyoming/San Diego St/Boise St[/B] Typically a conference that is more likely to have a bubble buster, with 4 teams protecting the field the odds are quite a bit lower this year. [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?