For old time sakes - 2022 Bubble Watch and Pre-Tourney Selection Thread

[jncuse]

NOTE - Weekend Viewing Schedule in Post #3
Weekend Results updated as they come in Post #2

I haven't been really following college basketball much this year and this might help me, and others perhaps, get a little more interested in tourney week.
Can't say I have analyzed anything so relying on bracket matrix http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Overall it does seem to be a fairly interesting bubble as of now, with a mix of P5 and other teams.

It seems like teams after the 10 line still have some uncertainty -- they probably cannot lose out and be safe.
Of note is the ACC is dominating the 10 and 11 seed lines. So at least Syracuse can play the spoiler role against someone like Miami today.
For bubble watchers this ACC weekend and the ACC tourney may be one of the more interesting things to watch.
(Note bolded teams are the current auto bids for those conferences)

And the teams on the outside.
I go down fairly deep because any team that wins 2 in a row (assuming 1 is a quality win) can move up fairly quickly to on the bubble line.

 

[jncuse]

Only looking at the 85 brackets submitted yesterday. Above the Bubble Line is heavy ACC and some Big East with some big names like Michigan and Memphis.

Largely the same as above. Results for the weekend will be updated in this thread.

Last Teams In
Wake Forest - 82 - no game this weekend
Creighton - 81 - Q2 loss vs Seton Hall
Xavier - 81 - Q4 win over Georgetown
North Carolina - 80 - Q1 win over Duke
Miami - 80 - Q2 win over Syracuse
Wyoming - 78 - Q3 win over Fresno St in OT
Notre Dame - 77 - Q4 win over Pitt
Michigan - 76 - Q1 win over Ohio St
Memphis - 71 - Q1 Win over Houston
Loyola - 65 - (MVC Conference Tourney - Q2 Win Friday, Q2 Win Saturday,
VCU - 47 - Q1 Loss vs St Louis

First Teams Out
Rutgers - 46 - Q3 win over Penn St
BYU - 32 - (WCC Conference tourney - Q4 Win Friday, Q1 Loss vs San Francisco)
Indiana - 26 - Q1 Loss at Purdue
SMU - 24
Florida - 10 - Q1 Loss vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech - 6 - Q2 Loss at Clemson
UAB - 6 - Q3 Win vs Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma - 4 - Q1 Win at Kansas St
Dayton - 2 - Q2 Home Win vs Davidson
St Bonaventure - 2 - Q3 home win

 

[jncuse]

This Weekend's Viewing Schedule
Many Q1 opportunities out there

Friday - 10th team out St Bonaventure wins vs Q3 Richmond

Sat 12:00 - 9th team out Dayton vs Q2 Davidson
Sat 1:00 - 7th last in Miami at Q2 Syracuse
Sat 2:00 - 5th team out Florida vs Q1 Kentucky
Sat 2:00 - 3rd team out Indiana at Q1 Purdue
Sat 2:00 - 6th team out Virginia Tech at Q2 Clemson
Sat 2:30 - 5th last in Notre Dame vs Q4 Pitt
Sat 2:30 - 10th last in Creighton vs Q2 Seton Hall
Sat 3:00 - 7th team out UAB vs Q3 Louisiana Tech
Sat 3:30 - 2nd Last in Loyola vs Q2 Nothern Iowa
Sat 4:00 - 8th team out Oklahoma at Q1 Kansas St
Sat 4:00 - 6th last in Wyoming vs Q2 Fresno St
Sat 4:00 - Last in VCU at Q1 St Louis
Sat 6:00 - 8th last in UNC at Q1 Duke
Sat 7:00 - 9th Last In Xavier vs Q4 Georgetown
Sat 10:30 - 2nd Team out BYU vs Q1 San Francisco

Sun 12:00 - First Team Out Rutgers vs Q3 Penn St
Sun 12:00 - 3rd Last in Memphis vs Q1 Houston
Sun 12:30 - 4th last in Michigan at Q1 Ohio St
Sun 3:00 - 4th team out SMU vs Q3 Tulane

Done for Regular Season
11th Last in Wake Forest - Seem to be in good shape even with a loss in first ACC Game. Would need a lot of "good" chaos for teams behind them.

Quick observation - lack of Q1 wins is killing the ACC. Look at some other teams that are currently Q1 - San Francisco, St Louis, a sub 500 Kansas St team.

 

[Briancuse]

Glad your doing it again even if we're out. One of the best threads going

 

[jncuse]

Breakdown by Conference (per Current Matrix)

Conference / # of Teams In / # of top 5 seeds

Big 10 - 7,3
Big East - 7.3
Big 12 - 6,4
SEC - 6,4
ACC - 5,1
Mountain West - 4,0
Pac 12 - 3,3
WCC - 3,2
American - 2,1
Atlantic 10 - 2,0
Missouri Valley - 2,0

Some quick observations
- Although the ACC has 5 teams in they are all lower tier except Duke. Lack of Q1 wins.
- With the ACC and P-12 down and no conference with 8 teams, it has opened up the doors for more mid-majors possibly getting in this year.
- Most probably don't remember my ramblings from December but at that time I said the way the Mountain West had played to that point would result in them getting 3-4 seeds again in a rebirth.
- The breakdown of the field by conference (not the individual teams) has broken down largely as I expected in December. I didn't think the ACC would get 5, I predicted 4 and that could easily happen.

 

[jncuse]

Glad your doing it again even if we're out. One of the best threads going

Thank you.

Part of the reason I do it rather than reading articles (this year anyway) , is I remember more / gather more if I write something myself rather than reading about it.

 

[jncuse]

Quick Analysis of #1 Seeds

- I would say 2 teams are locked for a #1 seed right now. Gonzaga and Baylor
- Arizona is likely to get a #1 seed. I don't lock Arizona quite yet, because they have two Q3/Q4 type games still to come, and a loss, however unlikely, would hurt them And if teams win out behind them like Kansas and Kentucky, and Arizona does not win the P12, there is still a discussion to be had.
- Auburn controls its destiny if it wins the SEC. I would say if Kentucky wins the SEC it would also get that spot.
- If Kansas wins the B12 tourney, and somebody other than Auburn or Kentucky win the SEC, there will be a healthy debate for that final spot.
- I would give Duke no chance at getting the #1 seed given they are in the ACC., but this is Duke. Never count out Duke bias and nonsense by the committee. Hell they would probably get the weakest / injured #4 and #5 seeds

 

[jncuse]

Bubble Busters (Early Conference Tourneys)

As noted in the conference breakdown post there are a few more leagues with multi-bids. Which tends to lead too more bubble busters.

That being said in terms of strong teams from one big leagues there are really only two. Murray St and borderline North Texas. And North Texas is not really convincing -- so maybe less bubble busters for that reason.

Anyway in terms of tournaments this weekend what to watch for:

Murray St plays for the OVC title tonight. If they lose, they get in and Morehead St steals a spot - Currently projected as an 8 seed per the matrix, a Q3 loss would almost certainly not be enough to knock them out.

Missouri Valley Conference - best case Scenario for a team on the bubble is if Loyola Wins.
- Loyola is currently the 2nd last team in. If they lose in say the MVC finals they still have a decent shot at an at-large especially given their brand equity -- which helps for a bubble team from a lower tier conference.
- Loyola plays Northern Iowa in the semi's today.

West Coast Conference - bid theft unlikely, but BYU can play itself into at large with run to WCC finals.
- This conference is a little more guarded against theft than usual as 3 teams are locks right now - Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Francisco.
- That being said if BYU makes the WCC Final they are in good shape of getting an out-large.

 

[jncuse]

Dayton gets a tight Q2 win at home against Davidson (who is currently in). So certainly a guality win.

That being said they have a tough road to an at-large becuase of 3 Q4 losses. I suppose if they make it to the A-10 finals they could be a bit of a "surprise" team to get in the tourney.

One of their Q1 wins is against Kansas so that is a big positive for them.
But what hurts them is 3 Q4 losses - I'm not sure when the last team got an at-large with 3 Q4 losses. That is a lot! Lasalle NET 228, UMass-Lowell Net 245, Lipscomb Net 268.

 

[nycfan]

Oh this is a little painful -- I really missed reading this every day. And to think I used to complain that we were on the bubble every year. Now looking back, those were actually "the good old days"!

 

[jncuse]

Miami Locks up Bid after Syracuse gives them a gift basket in the final 2 minutes.

Miami had a solid resume but not a lock before today.
A loss to Syracuse and a loss in their first ACC game could have put them in a position where they do not sleep comfortably.
Not an issue after today's debacle.

 

[jncuse]

Results Updated for Today Below
- Overall not much pressure from the teams below the line who blew big opportunities. Not bad losses per se, but those teams need something convincing to close (like Indiana, Florida, VCU)
- I would say Wake Forest + Miami solidified things in the ACC and now are locks. Virginia Tech is now likely done with their loss at Clemson.
- There was a "Reverse Bubble Buster" today on the matrix as the 1st place team in the MVC, Northern Iowa, lost and loses their spot in the tournament. As the league had an at-large in Loyola it works to open a spot for one of the teams below the line.
- The Matrix is only a proxy of course of what the committee will do, but with what has happened so far today it would appear that
Rutgers + BYU have moved in
VCU has moved out.




Last Teams In
Wake Forest - 82 - no game this weekend
Creighton - 81 - Q2 loss vs Seton Hall
Xavier - 81
North Carolina - 80
Miami - 80 - Q2 win over Syracuse
Wyoming - 78 - Q3 win over Fresno St in OT
Notre Dame - 77 - Q4 win over Pitt
Michigan - 76
Memphis - 71
Loyola - 65 - (MVC Conference Tourney - Q2 Win Friday, Q2 Win Saturday,
VCU - 47 - Q1 Loss vs St Louis

First Teams Out
Rutgers - 46
BYU - 32 - (WCC Conference tourney - Q4 Win Friday
Indiana - 26 - Q1 Loss at Purdue
SMU - 24
Florida - 10 - Q1 Loss vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech - 6 - Q2 Loss at Clemson
UAB - 6 - Q3 Win vs Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma - 4 - Q1 Win at Kansas St
Dayton - 2 - Q2 Home Win vs Davidson
St Bonaventure - 2 - Q3 home win

 

[BlackSquirrels]

Aaaaaahhhh, nothing like a bubble watch thread.

jncuse, I've been going through severe withdrawal this year without this. I really missed waking up on February Friday mornings to check the previous night's MWC scores to see if Colorado St./Nevada/Boise St. came through for us.

Cheers to you, sir.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Appreciate these threads jncuse, thanks for doing it again. Hopefully it won't be a bubble thread and just a seeding thread soon.

 

[MSOrange]

Results Updated for Today Below
- Overall not much pressure from the teams below the line who blew big opportunities. Not bad losses per se, but those teams need something convincing to close (like Indiana, Florida, VCU)
- I would say Wake Forest + Miami solidified things in the ACC and now are locks. Virginia Tech is now likely done with their loss at Clemson.
- There was a "Reverse Bubble Buster" today on the matrix as the 1st place team in the MVC, Northern Iowa, lost and loses their spot in the tournament. As the league had an at-large in Loyola it works to open a spot for one of the teams below the line.
- The Matrix is only a proxy of course of what the committee will do, but with what has happened so far today it would appear that
Rutgers + BYU have moved in
VCU has moved out.




Last Teams In
Wake Forest - 82 - no game this weekend
Creighton - 81 - Q2 loss vs Seton Hall
Xavier - 81
North Carolina - 80
Miami - 80 - Q2 win over Syracuse
Wyoming - 78 - Q3 win over Fresno St in OT
Notre Dame - 77 - Q4 win over Pitt
Michigan - 76
Memphis - 71
Loyola - 65 - (MVC Conference Tourney - Q2 Win Friday, Q2 Win Saturday,
VCU - 47 - Q1 Loss vs St Louis

First Teams Out
Rutgers - 46
BYU - 32 - (WCC Conference tourney - Q4 Win Friday
Indiana - 26 - Q1 Loss at Purdue
SMU - 24
Florida - 10 - Q1 Loss vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech - 6 - Q2 Loss at Clemson
UAB - 6 - Q3 Win vs Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma - 4 - Q1 Win at Kansas St
Dayton - 2 - Q2 Home Win vs Davidson
St Bonaventure - 2 - Q3 home win

Think Wyoming-UNLV in the MWC tournament on Thursday is a must win for the Cowboys?

 

[jncuse]

Bubble Busters (Early Conference Tourneys)

As noted in the conference breakdown post there are a few more leagues with multi-bids. Which tends to lead too more bubble busters.

That being said in terms of strong teams from one big leagues there are really only two. Murray St and borderline North Texas. And North Texas is not really convincing -- so maybe less bubble busters for that reason.

Anyway in terms of tournaments this weekend what to watch for:

Murray St plays for the OVC title tonight. If they lose, they get in and Morehead St steals a spot - Currently projected as an 8 seed per the matrix, a Q3 loss would almost certainly not be enough to knock them out.

View attachment 215201

Missouri Valley Conference - best case Scenario for a team on the bubble is if Loyola Wins.
- Loyola is currently the 2nd last team in. If they lose in say the MVC finals they still have a decent shot at an at-large especially given their brand equity -- which helps for a bubble team from a lower tier conference.
- Loyola plays Northern Iowa in the semi's today.

West Coast Conference - bid theft unlikely, but BYU can play itself into at large with run to WCC finals.
- This conference is a little more guarded against theft than usual as 3 teams are locks right now - Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Francisco.
- That being said if BYU makes the WCC Final they are in good shape of getting an out-large.

Murray St won a competitive game against Morehead St to win the OVC title. So there is no bubble buster in the OVC.

 

[jncuse]

BYU lost late last night to a strong San Francisco team in the WCC tournament.
They probably needed that one to get in.
Its still conceivable they could make it, but certainly below 50%.

 

[jncuse]

Think Wyoming-UNLV in the MWC tournament on Thursday is a must win for the Cowboys?

The MWC traditionally gets treated poorly by the committee (at least vs bracket matrix last in/first out) so I would say Wyoming has to at least win that game.

Not going to say they are done with a loss, as I am not following it that closely this year, but I am not certain the committee is open to 4 teams in the MWC based on their history.

Also it has been a strong weekend for teams above the line.

 

[jncuse]

This Weekend's Viewing Schedule


Sun 12:00 - First Team Out Rutgers vs Q3 Penn St
Sun 12:00 - 3rd Last in Memphis vs Q1 Houston
Sun 12:30 - 4th last in Michigan at Q1 Ohio St
Sun 3:00 - 4th team out SMU vs Q3 Tulane

In term of the Sunday games, most are not out of the way.

Rutgers nearly blew a double digit lead and survives by 1 against Penn St. Would have been a bad loss for them.

Memphis with a very impressive Q1 win over Houston by 14 which has to put them close to lock but not full certainty.

Michigan with a huge Q1 win at Ohio St. Another team like Memphis right near the bubble line that gets a huge Q1 win to close the regular season.

The teams above the line have really solidified their positions this weekend.

 

[jncuse]

Loyola - Drake right now. Potential Bid Stealer Game if Drake Wins.
Drake up 18-11 early on CBS.

If Loyola loses this they could still get an at-large. It would be very close. But it does not help them to see teams like Memphis and Michigan getting huge wins today.

 

[jncuse]

This weekend's key games are almost all done.
Key things to note
- Teams above the line generally had a huge performance this weekend. Many of them had lock / near lock type Q1 wins as italicized below, or key Q2 wins as well.
- Teams below the line did not really accomplish the much. As a result the bubble line has become much less murky after this weekend, and next week might be a little less climactic.
- There was a reverse bid stealer in the MVC, as regular season champ Northern Iowa lost and will not get a bid, so Rutgers moved up


Last Teams In
Wake Forest - 82 - no game this weekend
Creighton - 81 - Q2 loss vs Seton Hall
Xavier - 81 - Q4 win over Georgetown
North Carolina - 80 - Q1 win over Duke
Miami - 80 - Q2 win over Syracuse
Wyoming - 78 - Q3 win over Fresno St in OT
Notre Dame - 77 - Q4 win over Pitt
Michigan - 76 - Q1 win over Ohio St
Memphis - 71 - Q1 Win over Houston
Loyola - 65 - (MVC Conference Tourney - Q2 Win Friday, Q2 Win Saturday,
VCU - 47 - Q1 Loss vs St Louis
Rutgers - 46 - Q3 win over Penn St

First Teams Out
BYU - 32 - (WCC Conference tourney - Q4 Win Friday, Q1 Loss vs San Francisco)
Indiana - 26 - Q1 Loss at Purdue
SMU - 24
Florida - 10 - Q1 Loss vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech - 6 - Q2 Loss at Clemson
UAB - 6 - Q3 Win vs Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma - 4 - Q1 Win at Kansas St
Dayton - 2 - Q2 Home Win vs Davidson
St Bonaventure - 2 - Q3 home win

 

[Lord Ashby]

Loyola with the W today as this gets them off the bubble and a play-in game in Dayton. Sister Jean - at 102 years old - is rolling onto the dance and then the A-10 next year.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Seems like the dividing line is quite obvious this year.

 

[Col. Bleep]

I appreciate all the work here.
But looking at this generates such an empty feeling given the Orange's fate.
It's a form of feeling embarrassed I suppose.
Blowing game after game in similar fashion.

One thing...Rutgers is definitely in the tournament.
Someone else needs to be the first out.

 

[jncuse]

Seems like the dividing line is quite obvious this year.

Heading into the weekend it was not that clear. But this weekend really made it more clear -- big wins for many teams above the line, Loyola not being an "at large" candidate, and not many teams below the line doing much.

Things could change but as of now it looks like it can come down to a few teams for a few spots. Nothing open like some recent years.