For Those So Sure of a Number 1 Seed No Matter What... | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

For Those So Sure of a Number 1 Seed No Matter What...

Orangemen said:
So if we lose out, you really think we're a lock for a #1?

In that case we'd likely be the 2nd or 3rd place BE team.

How often do 2nd or 3rd place BE teams who have dropped 4 in a row become #1 seeds?
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We aren't losing out. The only thing within the realm of possibility that could make us sweat a #1 seed is losing two of our last three and then losing on Thursday (1st game for us) in the BET.

And that has a probability of happening at between 3-5%. While nothing is a "lock", that's about as close to a lock as any team not named Kentucky has of getting a #1 seed.

Cheers,
Neil
 
Orangemen said:
So if we lose out, you really think we're a lock for a #1?

In that case we'd likely be the 2nd or 3rd place BE team.

How often do 2nd or 3rd place BE teams who have dropped 4 in a row become #1 seeds?
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If we lose the next 4 games who the heck cares what seed we get? The bigger problem will be we've collapsed like a house of cards and wouldn't be going anywhere even if we were granted a 1st round bye.
So yah you guys can quibble with your nitty definitions. I'm sticking with LOCK.

simpsons-lock2.jpg
 
OttoinGrotto said:
What's really funny about this thread is that you are all acting like Lunardi makes the selection.
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What's even more hysterical is when people start bitching about who is in our bracket, and how unfair the placements are.
 
Amazing stat I heard during SportsCenter:
"Joe Lunardi has correctly predicted 75% of the No. 1 seeds over the past 2 years."
How does he do it? Incredible.
 
Go and read Lunardi's nitty griddy report he has BOTH Syracuse and Kentucky as 80% odds to end up as #1 seeds. The other 6 teams, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Kansas ARE ALL 35-40%. Enough of this we aren't a lock crap if we win 2 of the last 3 IT IS A STONE COLD LEAD PIPE LOCK we are a 1 seed. Until we win 2 of the next 3 it is not a lock but the constant negativity everyone has is ridiculous we are enjoying the Golden Age of Syracuse basketball and people are pissed with how we play as long as we win I don't care if we win every game 40-39 just win baby. At this point who cares if its a 1 or 2 seed we are f#cking 27-1 and people start these passive aggressive threads I wish the Kaiser would post on the Basketball board just to shut some of these people up sometimes.
 
Alsacs said:
Go and read Lunardi's nitty griddy report he has BOTH Syracuse and Kentucky as 80% odds to end up as #1 seeds. The other 6 teams, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Kansas ARE ALL 35-40%. Enough of this we aren't a lock crap if we win 2 of the last 3 IT IS A STONE COLD LEAD PIPE LOCK we are a 1 seed. Until we win 2 of the next 3 it is not a lock but the constant negativity everyone has is ridiculous we are enjoying the Golden Age of Syracuse basketball and people are pissed with how we play as long as we win I don't care if we win every game 40-39 just win baby. At this point who cares if its a 1 or 2 seed we are f#cking 27-1 and people start these passive aggressive threads I wish the Kaiser would post on the Basketball board just to shut some of these people up sometimes.
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We are actually at 85% according to him. After tonights if we win we will be about 90%. Based on every team losing behind us we can afford a loss or two and still get a #1 seed.
 
Marsh01 said:
We are actually at 85% according to him. After tonights if we win we will be about 90%. Based on every team losing behind us we can afford a loss or two and still get a #1 seed.
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I agree that we can probably afford a loss or two and still get a #1. However, I wouldn't want to lose our last two - regular season vs. Louisville and on Thursday in BET because the committee does have discretion to go outside the numbers and they may not want to reward someone who is on a 2 game skid, if someone else has had a exciting run through their conference tournament. We could also put ourselves in a position to lose the #1 in the East if we were to end up the 4th #1.... just keep winning and everything takes care of itself.
 
Alsacs said:
Go and read Lunardi's nitty griddy report he has BOTH Syracuse and Kentucky as 80% odds to end up as #1 seeds. The other 6 teams, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Kansas ARE ALL 35-40%. Enough of this we aren't a lock crap if we win 2 of the last 3 IT IS A STONE COLD LEAD PIPE LOCK we are a 1 seed. Until we win 2 of the next 3 it is not a lock but the constant negativity everyone has is ridiculous we are enjoying the Golden Age of Syracuse basketball and people are pissed with how we play as long as we win I don't care if we win every game 40-39 just win baby. At this point who cares if its a 1 or 2 seed we are f#cking 27-1 and people start these passive aggressive threads I wish the Kaiser would post on the Basketball board just to shut some of these people up sometimes.
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Don't forget to factor in if Fab is out though. The selection committee takes that into account. We could win 2 out of the next 3 put if Fab breaks his leg in the BET, SU could be dropped down a line. It almost happened to us two years ago.
 
pfister1 said:
I agree that we can probably afford a loss or two and still get a #1. However, I wouldn't want to lose our last two - regular season vs. Louisville and on Thursday in BET because the committee does have discretion to go outside the numbers and they may not want to reward someone who is on a 2 game skid, if someone else has had a exciting run through their conference tournament. We could also put ourselves in a position to lose the #1 in the East if we were to end up the 4th #1.... just keep winning and everything takes care of itself.
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lol, 2 game skid? 29-3 and no one seed BAHAHAHA

:bat:
 
pfister1 said:
I agree that we can probably afford a loss or two and still get a #1. However, I wouldn't want to lose our last two - regular season vs. Louisville and on Thursday in BET because the committee does have discretion to go outside the numbers and they may not want to reward someone who is on a 2 game skid, if someone else has had a exciting run through their conference tournament. We could also put ourselves in a position to lose the #1 in the East if we were to end up the 4th #1.... just keep winning and everything takes care of itself.
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UConn 3 yrs ago was 27-2 going into their last game which they lost to Pitt they dropped to 27-3 then they lost to Syracuse in the BET quarterfinals 6 OT game and finished the year on a 2 game losing streak and they were a 1 seed. If we win 2 of the last 3 games WE ARE LOCK FOR A 1 SEED.
 
2 years ago we lost our last game at louisville and our game in the big east tournament and kept our no 1 seed but dropped from 2 or 3 to 4th and got jumped by duke which put us in the west bracket. If we lose the last game at home to louisville we could lose the no 1 seed. if either duke or North carolina win the rest of their regular season games an their tourney they get a no 1, the same goes for mich st and kansas. We need to win tonight and louisville plus at least 2 games in the BE tourney otherwise the committee will jump over us just as in the past. They don't respect our program or the big east and every time they have had the opportunity to pass over us they do.
 
baggerbob said:
2 years ago we lost our last game at louisville and our game in the big east tournament and kept our no 1 seed but dropped from 2 or 3 to 4th and got jumped by duke which put us in the west bracket. If we lose the last game at home to louisville we could lose the no 1 seed. if either duke or North carolina win the rest of their regular season games an their tourney they get a no 1, the same goes for mich st and kansas. We need to win tonight and louisville plus at least 2 games in the BE tourney otherwise the committee will jump over us just as in the past. They don't respect our program or the big east and every time they have had the opportunity to pass over us they do.
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This same paranoia is no less annoying now than it was 2 years ago. The one team that jumped us - Duke - probably wouldn't have if AO hadn't gotten hurt (UK, KU, and us were pretty much 1a, 1b & 1c all year if you'll recall). This year there is one less team at the top with us and (hopefully) no game changing injury on the horizon (if there is then we have bigger problems than seeding).

I mean if all 3 of MichSt, KU and Duke/UNC run the table then yah that would make it interesting but that's a much bigger parlay than you seem to think.
 
Only team that jump us in the East would be Duke and they would have to run the table and SU would have to lose 2 games and the 2nd of which would be the BET Quarterfinals, and Duke beat UNC 2 more times they would deserve the one the East. I just want to beat UConn on Saturday and then win a BET game and will be the 1 seed in the East.
 
Only way i dont see us getting a 1 is if we lost our last 3 games (assuming we win tonite). We'd still deserve a 1 going 15-3 in the big east, but it wouldnt be a lock depending on what other teams do.
 
cusetown1 said:
and I commend you for watching that conference. you probably watch women's basketball to.
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High quality WBB has great fundamental basketball.

Sent from my Vortex using Tapatalk
 
tbouks02 said:
Amazing stat I heard during SportsCenter:
"Joe Lunardi has correctly predicted 75% of the No. 1 seeds over the past 2 years."
How does he do it? Incredible.
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Its really not that hard once all the data comes in by Selection Sunday. Alot of people get involved on the Bracket Matrix (I used to) and do just as well as Joe Lunardi. Once you do it for a few years, and are willing to spend a little time sifting throguh the date its not that difficult. I enjoy doing it because its sort of like a puzzle. Joe gets alot of mocking and jealousy from people who say they can beat him. Sure you can do as well, but his success does not come from the fact that his success is much higher but that he was one of the first to do it on a large scale.

Joe was one of the originators of the bracketology concept, he was one of those initial people that spurned the interest for many others to do it. Good for Joe for turning this concept into a success for himself financially and bringing it into the mainstream some years ago.
 
Orangemen said:
That's the definition of lock. It means that no matter what happens we're a 1 seed.

Of course we're not losing out, but we're not a lock for a 1 seed until we can lose every remaining game and be a 1 seed. We may get there with 1 win, but I think we need 2 more. Once that happens, it does not matter what we do, we're a lock 1 seed.
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People forget how close we've come to disaster in several games of late. Sooner or later it catches up. Below are official seed projections:

0-3: 2 seed or worse
1-2: 1 seed, region dependent on BET wins
2-1: 1 seed in East
 
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