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Message: [QUOTE="cuse522, post: 2095337, member: 1149"] I don't know if losing to bubble teams on the road counts as a sad loss, obviously we'd be in great shape with those two as wins, though. We'd also be in much better shape if we won a couple of those early season games, too, though. I don't necessarily agree, and a big part of the reason is how the ACC in particular beats up on itself. I think there's a case that anyone other than BC this year in the ACC would be on the right side of the bubble if they were in any other major conference, based on the difficulty of ACC play. Pitt is a great example. They had to play Louisville and UNC twice, and @Duke. They had Florida St. at home (and won that one). The other power conferences have two teams as good as those FOUR, and Pitt had to play six games against those four. I think Pitt would be on the right side of the bubble in literally any other conference. Instead, they may not even come close... and that's with 68. If you're thinking of my post, it was simply in reference to people saying GT is a must-win. I don't see why GT is a must-win when they could lose to GT and win the first tournament game and be in pretty much the same shape in terms of RPI, if not a little better since it would likely be a neutral site win over a better RPI team. The only way GT is a must-win is if you think that we absolutely need two more wins, and I just don't think that's the case. I think we're around 50-50 if we lose out and 90% plus with any win (most of this 10% being stolen bids or someone going on a run... Like if Pitt wins out @GT and @UVA, then wins two ACCT games before bowing out 19-15, I think they'd probably get a spot). But I think we're essentially a lock with two wins, you'd have to see tons of stolen bids. I don't think anyone thinks we're absolutely out if we lose out, and I don't think anyone thinks we are more likely out than in if we win one game. You don't, right? [/QUOTE]

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