Great breakdown of the schedule. I agree that on paper, we have five baked-in wins ('Gate, WMU, Army, BC, WF).
I will put Clemson, FSU, and UNC as losses right now on paper.
That leaves four games that are toss-ups to a greater or lesser extent.
@Purdue: They have a good shot here but will also be underdogs. I believe this is the closest to a toss-up for these final four games.
@VT: I think we should win this one, but VT is still recruiting solid players, and playing at Lane on a Thursday night will make a game that, if played at noon in Blacksburg, much more difficult. I think we steal one here, but it will be a nail-biter.
@NYC vs. Pitt: Ugh. I hate that this is in NYC and that we can never seem to beat Pitt. The worm has to turn at some point, right? We dominated them for a long stretch in the 80s and 90s. They've dominated us since. It has to switch back at some time. I don't think it does this year. This one will be a loss.
@GT: I honestly have no idea here. New coach and a complete roster turnover on offense. It seems like a reset year, but getting them late in the season at their place feels like a trap. They could start hitting their stride with the offense and the talent they brought in. Plus, they went 4-4 under Brent Key last year when he took over. That massive improvement in the win category likely got him the head coaching gig.
I think this will be a win, but it will be close. 2-2 in these four is reasonable, and 3-1 would be great. That puts SU between 7-5 and 8-4, which I think is doable unless anarchy breaks out during the season. Which it very well could. Because Syracuse.