SWC75
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The 700 Club
Three players in major league baseball history have hit 700 home runs. A statistical comparison is in order.
BABE RUTH played 2,503 games, came to the plate 10,616 times, had 8,398 official at bats, 2,873 hits and hit 714 home runs.
HENRY AARON played 3,298 games, came to the plate 13,940 times, had 12,364 official at bats, 3,771 hits and hit 755 home runs.
BARRY BONDS, through the 2005 season, had played 2,730 games, come to the plate 11,636 times, had 9,140 official at bats, 2,742 hits and hit 708 home runs.
(source: baseball-reference.com)
Aaron had the most “chances” in every category: he played the most games, came to the plate the most times, had the most official at bats and the most hits. What would Ruth or Bonds have achieved in as many “chances”?
Ruth would have hit 941 home runs if he’d played as many gamers as Hank, 938 if he came to the plate as many times, 1051 with as many official at bats and 937 if he had the same number of hits.
Bonds would have hit 855 home runs in as many games, 848 in as many plate appearances, 958 in as many official at bats and 974 with as many hits.
I’ve always hated “official” at bats and any stat that is based on them. In my mind an “unofficial” at bat takes place in the batting cage. I think everything should be a percentage of plate appearances. Games and plate appearances produce virtually the same stats, kind of backing each other up. As a measure of pure power, however, the home runs per hit is probably the most meaningful. When a guy draws a walk, he may be helping his team but he’s not “hitting”. He’s not displaying his power.
Of course there are many other factors involved. I would like to have looked at career road records but I couldn’t find Bond’s, (ESPN has recent numbers only). Ruth spent the first few years of his career as a pitcher in the dead ball era. The lack of games and at bats is factored out above but the big reason pitchers have a hard time hitting is that they come to the plate irregularly, so it’s still a disadvantage. On the other hand he never faced a black pitcher, the population of the country hit 100 million the year before his career began, (it’s now approaching three times that), he played against almost no foreign players, hit in ballparks that, except for Yankee stadium, were built in and for the dead ball era, (and Yankee Stadium was 296 deep down the right field line). He also never saw a slider or a splitter, (but he did see spitters, which were legal until 1919 and pitchers whose main pitch was a spitter were allowed to keep using them for the rest of their careers). He saw almost no relief specialists, (actually, it was the Yankees that basically invented the bullpen).
A recent article about an author named Bill Jenkinson who has written about Ruth offered some other perspectives:
www.sun-sentinel.com
He points out that in Ruth’s day the fences were higher than the normal 8 feet in modern stadiums and that home runs had to “land fair”- if a ball went inside the foul pole but curved foul afterwards, it was judged a foul ball based on where it landed. Jenkinsen estimates this cost the Babe at least 50 homers. I’ve read elsewhere that in Ruth’s day, a ball that bounced over the fence was a home run, although someone checked and none of the 60 home runs he hit in 1927 went over on the bounce. As far as I know, the rest of his career hasn’t been checked. According to Bill James, baseball reacted to the popularity of Ruth’s homers by juicing the ball officially three times during his career to make it easier to hit homers, thus leading to the 1930 season when the composite major league batting average was .296, (the AL was .288, the NL .303). They came to their senses and deadened the ball a little the next year.
Aaron played in an era of symmetrical ballparks, integrated baseball and extensive use of the bullpen. He also was in his prime when Commissioner Ford Frick, overreacting to seeing Roger Maris break Frick’s friend Ruth’s single season home run record, expanded the strike zone and had the pitcher’s mound raised, thus creating the most pitcher-dominated era since the dead ball era. He may not have had the raw power of Ruth or Bonds but he had amazing consistency. And until Bonds, he was probably the best 40 year old hitter in history.
Barry has placed at least the latter half of his career in an era when new ballparks that were oriented towards hitters were being built. It’s also apparent that the owners tried to ride baseball over the 1994 strike by juicing the ball beyond what it had been juiced since Ruth’s era. The there is the impact of modern training methods which include weight-lifting and, of course, flaxseed oil.
Then there is the subject of people’s reaction to the players and their impact on the game. There’s much to criticize about the Babe, (he’d have been a regular whipping boy of today’s press), but people couldn’t help but like him and his empathy for children was real and laudable. He was a colorful showman, the Muhammed Ali of his time. He drew fans to the ballpark wherever he went. He saved the game after the Black Sox scandal and also changed it from a “cat-and-mouse” sport where players like Ty Cobb would slap the ball around and steal their way around the bases into a game were the long ball was predominant. Aaron didn’t reinvent the game and remained in the shadows behind Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays until he passed both of them late in his career. He was a quiet, dignified man who held up admirably under the pressure of trying to break Ruth’s record, including that of a vocal band of racists that even threatened his family. Bonds is a guy who distanced himself from everybody, never cared if anyone liked him, treated women badly and cheated when he got jealous of the attention other players he presumed to be on steroids.
The Babe was beloved. Henry was respected. Barry is neither.
(I did this before Barry’s career ended in 2007. He wound up playing 2,986 games, coming to the plate 12,606 times with 9,847 official at bats and 2,935 hits. He hit 762 home runs. if he’s had the same number of games, plate appearances, official at bats and hits as Henry Aaron, he’s have wound up with 842, 843, 957 and 979 home runs, respectively.
Baseball Reference.com now has complete road numbers for all three players:
Ruth: 1,251g 5,474pa 4,364ab 1,475h 367hr
Aaron: 1,651g 7,137pa 6,396ab 1,960h 370hr
Bonds: 1,494g 6,482pa 5,090ab 1,505h 383hr
If Ruth had Aaron’s road games, plate appearances, official at bats and hits, he’d have hit 484, 478, 538 and 488 home runs, respectively.
If Bonds had Aaron’s road games, plate appearances, official at bats and hits, he’d have hit 423, 421, 481 and 499 home runs, respectively.)
Three players in major league baseball history have hit 700 home runs. A statistical comparison is in order.
BABE RUTH played 2,503 games, came to the plate 10,616 times, had 8,398 official at bats, 2,873 hits and hit 714 home runs.
HENRY AARON played 3,298 games, came to the plate 13,940 times, had 12,364 official at bats, 3,771 hits and hit 755 home runs.
BARRY BONDS, through the 2005 season, had played 2,730 games, come to the plate 11,636 times, had 9,140 official at bats, 2,742 hits and hit 708 home runs.
(source: baseball-reference.com)
Aaron had the most “chances” in every category: he played the most games, came to the plate the most times, had the most official at bats and the most hits. What would Ruth or Bonds have achieved in as many “chances”?
Ruth would have hit 941 home runs if he’d played as many gamers as Hank, 938 if he came to the plate as many times, 1051 with as many official at bats and 937 if he had the same number of hits.
Bonds would have hit 855 home runs in as many games, 848 in as many plate appearances, 958 in as many official at bats and 974 with as many hits.
I’ve always hated “official” at bats and any stat that is based on them. In my mind an “unofficial” at bat takes place in the batting cage. I think everything should be a percentage of plate appearances. Games and plate appearances produce virtually the same stats, kind of backing each other up. As a measure of pure power, however, the home runs per hit is probably the most meaningful. When a guy draws a walk, he may be helping his team but he’s not “hitting”. He’s not displaying his power.
Of course there are many other factors involved. I would like to have looked at career road records but I couldn’t find Bond’s, (ESPN has recent numbers only). Ruth spent the first few years of his career as a pitcher in the dead ball era. The lack of games and at bats is factored out above but the big reason pitchers have a hard time hitting is that they come to the plate irregularly, so it’s still a disadvantage. On the other hand he never faced a black pitcher, the population of the country hit 100 million the year before his career began, (it’s now approaching three times that), he played against almost no foreign players, hit in ballparks that, except for Yankee stadium, were built in and for the dead ball era, (and Yankee Stadium was 296 deep down the right field line). He also never saw a slider or a splitter, (but he did see spitters, which were legal until 1919 and pitchers whose main pitch was a spitter were allowed to keep using them for the rest of their careers). He saw almost no relief specialists, (actually, it was the Yankees that basically invented the bullpen).
A recent article about an author named Bill Jenkinson who has written about Ruth offered some other perspectives:
Top South Florida News, Sports, Weather and Entertainment - South Florida Sun-Sentinel
The latest headlines and information from Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties including breaking news, weather, traffic, events, sports and more.
He points out that in Ruth’s day the fences were higher than the normal 8 feet in modern stadiums and that home runs had to “land fair”- if a ball went inside the foul pole but curved foul afterwards, it was judged a foul ball based on where it landed. Jenkinsen estimates this cost the Babe at least 50 homers. I’ve read elsewhere that in Ruth’s day, a ball that bounced over the fence was a home run, although someone checked and none of the 60 home runs he hit in 1927 went over on the bounce. As far as I know, the rest of his career hasn’t been checked. According to Bill James, baseball reacted to the popularity of Ruth’s homers by juicing the ball officially three times during his career to make it easier to hit homers, thus leading to the 1930 season when the composite major league batting average was .296, (the AL was .288, the NL .303). They came to their senses and deadened the ball a little the next year.
Aaron played in an era of symmetrical ballparks, integrated baseball and extensive use of the bullpen. He also was in his prime when Commissioner Ford Frick, overreacting to seeing Roger Maris break Frick’s friend Ruth’s single season home run record, expanded the strike zone and had the pitcher’s mound raised, thus creating the most pitcher-dominated era since the dead ball era. He may not have had the raw power of Ruth or Bonds but he had amazing consistency. And until Bonds, he was probably the best 40 year old hitter in history.
Barry has placed at least the latter half of his career in an era when new ballparks that were oriented towards hitters were being built. It’s also apparent that the owners tried to ride baseball over the 1994 strike by juicing the ball beyond what it had been juiced since Ruth’s era. The there is the impact of modern training methods which include weight-lifting and, of course, flaxseed oil.
Then there is the subject of people’s reaction to the players and their impact on the game. There’s much to criticize about the Babe, (he’d have been a regular whipping boy of today’s press), but people couldn’t help but like him and his empathy for children was real and laudable. He was a colorful showman, the Muhammed Ali of his time. He drew fans to the ballpark wherever he went. He saved the game after the Black Sox scandal and also changed it from a “cat-and-mouse” sport where players like Ty Cobb would slap the ball around and steal their way around the bases into a game were the long ball was predominant. Aaron didn’t reinvent the game and remained in the shadows behind Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays until he passed both of them late in his career. He was a quiet, dignified man who held up admirably under the pressure of trying to break Ruth’s record, including that of a vocal band of racists that even threatened his family. Bonds is a guy who distanced himself from everybody, never cared if anyone liked him, treated women badly and cheated when he got jealous of the attention other players he presumed to be on steroids.
The Babe was beloved. Henry was respected. Barry is neither.
(I did this before Barry’s career ended in 2007. He wound up playing 2,986 games, coming to the plate 12,606 times with 9,847 official at bats and 2,935 hits. He hit 762 home runs. if he’s had the same number of games, plate appearances, official at bats and hits as Henry Aaron, he’s have wound up with 842, 843, 957 and 979 home runs, respectively.
Baseball Reference.com now has complete road numbers for all three players:
Ruth: 1,251g 5,474pa 4,364ab 1,475h 367hr
Aaron: 1,651g 7,137pa 6,396ab 1,960h 370hr
Bonds: 1,494g 6,482pa 5,090ab 1,505h 383hr
If Ruth had Aaron’s road games, plate appearances, official at bats and hits, he’d have hit 484, 478, 538 and 488 home runs, respectively.
If Bonds had Aaron’s road games, plate appearances, official at bats and hits, he’d have hit 423, 421, 481 and 499 home runs, respectively.)
