SWC75
Bored Historian
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(Another blast from the past to tide us over until sports gets really going again - from my review of WORD documents I've kept form over the years.)
Five vs. Seven Games
Before the playoffs began there was a discussion of the fact that the first round is a best of five series and the subsequent rounds are best of seven. It’s long been my contention that it makes no sense that a five game series is considered a sufficient test to determine if a team deserves to be in a seven game series. Also, with a five game series there was a chance that a team that’s been dominant all year could get knocked off by a wild card team that was lucky to make the playoffs and that just seemed wrong. One poster argued that the first team to win three games is likely to be the first team to win four games as well- so likely that it didn’t matter that the first round only went 5 games. I and other posters argued against this notion. My inclination is always “you could look it up”. But I also had an inclination to go to Hawaii and then my boss had an inclination for me to go back to work so I haven’t been able to complete the project until now.
I’ll be brief. There have been 137 best of seven game series in major league baseball history. Three of them have been between teams with the same regular season records. 71 of the remaining 134 have been won by the team with the better regular season record, or 53.0%. There have been 68 best of five game series, one between teams with the same regular season records. The team with the better regular season record has won 37 of the remaining 67 series, or 55.2%. In other words, the underdog is virtually as likely to win a seven game series as a five game series. The winning percentage of the favorites seems a bit low but not when you consider that they probably had a similar winning percentage against the major contenders in their division.
But a lot of these series are between teams with similar records. A 95-67 team beats a 97-65 team. Is that really an upset? I decided to look at series in which one team won at least ten more regular season games than their opponent. In a five game series the “superior” team has won 19 times in 24 series, or .792%. In a seven game series, they have won 21 times in 31 series, .677%. In other words the underdog actually has a better chance at springing a big upset in a seven game series than in a five game series.
I looked at the subject of the first team winning the third game being the first team to win four. The first team to win three games has also been the first team to win four games 108 times. Teams have come back from 2-3, 1-3 and, (yes, Yankee fans), 0-3 deficits 26 times. Thus, the first team to three has been the first team to four 80.6% of the time. Still, that’s almost 20% of the time that there’s a comeback. So who makes the comebacks? Once the teams had the same regular season record. 11 times it has been the team with the better regular season record, (44%). The other 14 times it’s been the underdog. That’s right. An underdog is more likely to take advantage of a seven game series to erase a deficit that would have eliminated them from a five game series than a favorite is. What if I applied the 10 game difference as described above? Then it’s 5-5.
What it comes down to is that neither a five nor a seven game series is enough to bring out the qualities that makes one good team better than another over the long season, (primarily depth, especially in the pitching staff). You’d have to play a month for that. Baseball isn’t like football or hockey where you can block and tackle or check people into the boards. You can’t physically force a team to lose in baseball. You also have a pitching rotation, meaning that you don’t have your best man in the most important position on the field in every game. Of course the pitching rotation condenses in the playoffs and managers go to their best relievers more often. That only means that the underdogs become better teams, using their best guys more, knowing that it will all be over soon anyway.
The difference between superior teams lesser teams who make playoffs is often that the superior team has two “ace” type starters and the lesser team has only one. The superior team’s manager may try to have his two aces pitch as many as 5 of the 7 games while the lesser team will go with 3-4 guys. The superior team’s aces may tire or the other team may adjust to them because they see them so much. That may be why the lesser team is able to come back more often in a seven game series.
Baseball could actually make all three playoff rounds five games, just like they do in the minors and it probably wouldn’t make any difference. Except they’d make less money. Someday they probably will make that first round a seven game series and all will seem just right. But they will have done it for the money and not for the game.
1/16/19
I originally did this after the 2006 season, (per the statement that 137 best-of-seven series had been played: it’s now 173 with three more per year for 12 seasons). Here’s what’s happened since:
Of the 36 seven game series, there have been 2 between teams with even records and 34 between teams that had uneven records. Of those, the series has been won by the team with the better record 18 times (52.9%)
5 Of these series were between teams separated by 10 games in their regular season records and the team with the better record won all 5 times.
Of the teams that won series that went the full seven games 3 came back from being the first team to lose 3 games. One of them had the same record of their opponent. One had a superior record and one an inferior record. None were 10 games better or worse than their opponent.
There have been (12 x 4) 48 more five game series. None have been between teams with even records. The team with the better record won 32 times, 66.7%.
8 of these series were between teams separated by 10 games in their regular season records and the team with the better record won 4 times, 50%.
Now I’ll add those numbers to the ones I compiled in 2006:
There have 173 series scheduled for 7 games. Five of them have been between teams with the same record. Of the remaining 168, 89 of them have been won by the team with the better record (53.0%). 36 of these series have involved teams separated by at least 10 games in their regular season record. The team with the better record has won 26 of those series, (72.2%).
There have been 29 seven game series in which the first team to lose a third game came back to win the series. Two of those teams had the same record as their opponent. Of the 27 other series, 12 were won by the team with the superior regular season record, (44.4%). 5 of the 27 series were won by teams with records 10 or more games better than the loser and 5 have been won by teams with records 10 or more games worse.
There have been 116 scheduled five game series. Only one has been between teams with the same record. Of the 115 others, 69 have been won by the team with the superior record, (60.0%). In the 32 series where one team had a record 10 games better than the other, the team with the better record won 23 times, (71.8%).
Superior teams (+10 games or more) win (scheduled) 5 game series as often as 7 game series, (72%) but teams with records less than a that are less likely to win a 7 game series (53%) than a 5 game series (60%). Teams with better records are less likely to use those two extra games to come back and win (44%) than teams with worse records. Teams with superior records, (+10g), makes those comebacks as often as teams with inferior (-10g) records, 5-5.
So let’s make all the series 5 games and get rid of November baseball!
Five vs. Seven Games
Before the playoffs began there was a discussion of the fact that the first round is a best of five series and the subsequent rounds are best of seven. It’s long been my contention that it makes no sense that a five game series is considered a sufficient test to determine if a team deserves to be in a seven game series. Also, with a five game series there was a chance that a team that’s been dominant all year could get knocked off by a wild card team that was lucky to make the playoffs and that just seemed wrong. One poster argued that the first team to win three games is likely to be the first team to win four games as well- so likely that it didn’t matter that the first round only went 5 games. I and other posters argued against this notion. My inclination is always “you could look it up”. But I also had an inclination to go to Hawaii and then my boss had an inclination for me to go back to work so I haven’t been able to complete the project until now.
I’ll be brief. There have been 137 best of seven game series in major league baseball history. Three of them have been between teams with the same regular season records. 71 of the remaining 134 have been won by the team with the better regular season record, or 53.0%. There have been 68 best of five game series, one between teams with the same regular season records. The team with the better regular season record has won 37 of the remaining 67 series, or 55.2%. In other words, the underdog is virtually as likely to win a seven game series as a five game series. The winning percentage of the favorites seems a bit low but not when you consider that they probably had a similar winning percentage against the major contenders in their division.
But a lot of these series are between teams with similar records. A 95-67 team beats a 97-65 team. Is that really an upset? I decided to look at series in which one team won at least ten more regular season games than their opponent. In a five game series the “superior” team has won 19 times in 24 series, or .792%. In a seven game series, they have won 21 times in 31 series, .677%. In other words the underdog actually has a better chance at springing a big upset in a seven game series than in a five game series.
I looked at the subject of the first team winning the third game being the first team to win four. The first team to win three games has also been the first team to win four games 108 times. Teams have come back from 2-3, 1-3 and, (yes, Yankee fans), 0-3 deficits 26 times. Thus, the first team to three has been the first team to four 80.6% of the time. Still, that’s almost 20% of the time that there’s a comeback. So who makes the comebacks? Once the teams had the same regular season record. 11 times it has been the team with the better regular season record, (44%). The other 14 times it’s been the underdog. That’s right. An underdog is more likely to take advantage of a seven game series to erase a deficit that would have eliminated them from a five game series than a favorite is. What if I applied the 10 game difference as described above? Then it’s 5-5.
What it comes down to is that neither a five nor a seven game series is enough to bring out the qualities that makes one good team better than another over the long season, (primarily depth, especially in the pitching staff). You’d have to play a month for that. Baseball isn’t like football or hockey where you can block and tackle or check people into the boards. You can’t physically force a team to lose in baseball. You also have a pitching rotation, meaning that you don’t have your best man in the most important position on the field in every game. Of course the pitching rotation condenses in the playoffs and managers go to their best relievers more often. That only means that the underdogs become better teams, using their best guys more, knowing that it will all be over soon anyway.
The difference between superior teams lesser teams who make playoffs is often that the superior team has two “ace” type starters and the lesser team has only one. The superior team’s manager may try to have his two aces pitch as many as 5 of the 7 games while the lesser team will go with 3-4 guys. The superior team’s aces may tire or the other team may adjust to them because they see them so much. That may be why the lesser team is able to come back more often in a seven game series.
Baseball could actually make all three playoff rounds five games, just like they do in the minors and it probably wouldn’t make any difference. Except they’d make less money. Someday they probably will make that first round a seven game series and all will seem just right. But they will have done it for the money and not for the game.
1/16/19
I originally did this after the 2006 season, (per the statement that 137 best-of-seven series had been played: it’s now 173 with three more per year for 12 seasons). Here’s what’s happened since:
Of the 36 seven game series, there have been 2 between teams with even records and 34 between teams that had uneven records. Of those, the series has been won by the team with the better record 18 times (52.9%)
5 Of these series were between teams separated by 10 games in their regular season records and the team with the better record won all 5 times.
Of the teams that won series that went the full seven games 3 came back from being the first team to lose 3 games. One of them had the same record of their opponent. One had a superior record and one an inferior record. None were 10 games better or worse than their opponent.
There have been (12 x 4) 48 more five game series. None have been between teams with even records. The team with the better record won 32 times, 66.7%.
8 of these series were between teams separated by 10 games in their regular season records and the team with the better record won 4 times, 50%.
Now I’ll add those numbers to the ones I compiled in 2006:
There have 173 series scheduled for 7 games. Five of them have been between teams with the same record. Of the remaining 168, 89 of them have been won by the team with the better record (53.0%). 36 of these series have involved teams separated by at least 10 games in their regular season record. The team with the better record has won 26 of those series, (72.2%).
There have been 29 seven game series in which the first team to lose a third game came back to win the series. Two of those teams had the same record as their opponent. Of the 27 other series, 12 were won by the team with the superior regular season record, (44.4%). 5 of the 27 series were won by teams with records 10 or more games better than the loser and 5 have been won by teams with records 10 or more games worse.
There have been 116 scheduled five game series. Only one has been between teams with the same record. Of the 115 others, 69 have been won by the team with the superior record, (60.0%). In the 32 series where one team had a record 10 games better than the other, the team with the better record won 23 times, (71.8%).
Superior teams (+10 games or more) win (scheduled) 5 game series as often as 7 game series, (72%) but teams with records less than a that are less likely to win a 7 game series (53%) than a 5 game series (60%). Teams with better records are less likely to use those two extra games to come back and win (44%) than teams with worse records. Teams with superior records, (+10g), makes those comebacks as often as teams with inferior (-10g) records, 5-5.
So let’s make all the series 5 games and get rid of November baseball!
