SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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(Some more stuff from my review of WORD documents I've created over the years to see what might still be of interest)
Historical Slugging
I decided to chart the history of slugging in baseball in the wake of Mark McGwire’s latest semi-confession. I didn’t do it with home run numbers. In some early ballparks there were no fences or they were 500 feet away. For years players didn’t even bother swinging for the fences both because of that and the fact that balls got reused for entire games, making them harder to hit and hit for power. Even after the “live ball” era began in 1920, (because they started to replace balls as dirty balls were considered a health hazard with the influenza epidemic), players only gradually changed the way they played the game. First teams avoided the new style of play, preferring “inside” baseball to “outside” baseball. Then everybody wanted to find their Babe Ruth. Then they wanted to add their Lou Gehrig. For many years, hitting home runs was considered the “job” of the middle of the order hitters and the rest of the line-up was still just trying to get on base. Then, with the coming of TV, players wanted to get on highlight films and gradually the entire line-up started swinging for the fences. But players have always wanted to hit the ball hard, even when it was a low line-drive for a double or a sharp grounder for a single. By using slugging percentage, (one base for a single, two for a double, three for a triple and four for a homer divided by official at-bats), we can see the trends in how hard the ball was being hit with the strategic tendencies being minimized.
What I did was to look at the overall league slugging percentages for each year and average those of the American and National league for 1901 to the present. For 1971-75 I used the National Association statistics. For 1876-81 and 1892-1900 I used the National League numbers. For 1882-1891 I averaged the National League and the American Association, which was regarded as a major league at the time, (they even had some early World Series between the two leagues). I did not use the Union Association of 1884, the Player’s league of 1890 and the Federal league of 1914-15 as they did not last long enough to establish themselves. There may have been unequal numbers of teams, games and at bats in some years so that the “average” I came up with may be slightly off but I did not feel any discrepancy would have been worth the extra time needed to compute the overall slugging percentage by combining the information on singles, doubles, triples, homers and at bats for each league. My sources were Total Baseball and Baseball reference.com, which listed league slugging percentages but not total bases.
Here are some key things to look for
- The pitcher’s mound was moved back from 50 to 60 feet in 1893. For a time the hitters went wild. But then the pitchers adjusted.
- Foul balls were first counted as strikes in the 1900’s. This plus the use of single balls for games and the spitball produced the “Dead Ball Era”.
- Beginning with Shibe Park in 1909, modern concrete and steel stadiums were erected. This established more permanent outfield fence distances. The parks tended to be down-city parks built to conform to city blocks. There were a lot of short porches, high walls and distant center field fences that created a lot of outfield space. William J. Jenkinson, author of “The Year Babe Ruth hit 104 Home Runs”, says that the outfield fences of Babe’s time were about 28 feet father on average than the ones Barry Bonds aimed his drives at.
- The ball was changed to its current composition, with the cork center in 1911. This increased batting averages much more than home runs.
- In 1920 came a “perfect storm”: A young rebel named Babe Ruth insisted on trying to hit the ball over the fence, angering old schools guys like Ty Cobb and John McGraw. The influenza epidemic caused public health authorities to insist that dirty balls be replaced and spitballs be banned. According to Bill James’ Historical Baseball Abstract, the number of new balls that have been used in games began to gradually increase from that point on. The immediate impact of this was an increase in batting averages more than in home runs. Babe Ruth’s exploits and the desire of other clubs to “get a Babe Ruth” slowly changed the thinking in the game over the next few years.
- The fan’s reaction to Ruth caused baseball to liven the ball with a “cushioned cork center” in 1925 to make it even livelier.
- After the entire National League batted a composite .303 in 1930, the NL decided to deaden the ball a little bit, (James doesn’t say how but loosening the laces is a popular method), resulting in a gap in the two leagues output for most of the decade, (but, as you can see below, it didn’t make that much difference).
- During the war, according to James, the balls were made of lesser materials. He says something in the ball was needed to produce “explosives or O.D green paint or something”. Of course the top players were in the service as well.
- The game was slowly integrated with black and Latin players beginning in the late 40’s, increasing the talent base. But there weren’t large numbers of them until the 60’s.
- Franchise shifts and expansion produced new stadiums beginning when the Braves moved to Milwaukee in 1953. Teams in the old cities wanted new ballparks as well. The new places tended to be out in the suburbs and to have regular dimensions and artificial turf.
- Expansion tends to cause offensive spikes as new players are given opportunities to play and depth is tested on the established teams. It seems to take longer to find the new pitchers than it does the new hitters. But the numbers return to normal after a year or so. The expansion years were 1961, 1962, 1969, 1977, 1993 and 1998.
- After Roger Maris- in an expansion year- beat Babe Ruth’s home record, Commissioner Ford Frick, who as a sportswriter had been Ruth’s ghost-writer for his autobiography, feared that a lot of records would be broken due to the supposed dilution of talent in the major leagues, (actually, with the rise in population, the integration of the game and the rise in the use of foreign players, the depth of talent is probably greater now than it was prior to expansion). Frick ordered the pitcher’s mound raised and the strike zone expanded to combat this. The result was the greatest decade for pitchers and the worst for hitters since the dead ball era.
- In 1968 the entire American League batted .230 and the National League .242. The composite historical major league batting average is .262. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn reversed Frick’s edicts. According to James, this was also the time ball clubs began covering center field seats with a tarp to create a “batter’s eye”.
- In 1981 there was strike that threatened the popularity of the game. Offensive numbers went up steadily for 7 years. In 1987, players were hitting broken-bat home runs. Players who never hit home runs were hitting 20+ homers. In 1998, the bottom dropped out. Many players who had never been sluggers but became them in ’87 found those long fly balls weren’t so long any more in ’88 and the bottom dropped out of their batting averages and their careers. (Look at a “Who’s Who in Baseball from about 1990 and you’ll see what I mean.) There was an article at that time that said that a retired worker from the plant that made major league baseballs said that they used to get orders to tighten the laces on the balls progressively for several years in a row, and then loosen them. The writer claimed that the numbers show a pattern of increased offensive numbers, which put fannies in the seats but increase player contracts, for 7 year periods, followed by a sudden drop in offensive numbers, (which allows teams to cut contracts as the numbers go down- or at least used to), followed by another gradual tightening of the laces. The theory was that, in the wake of the 1981 strike, this had been done to get the fans interested again.
- In the 1990’s there was another “perfect storm”. Beginning with Camden Yards in 1990, the era of the “retro park” began. Now everyone wanted a downtown ballpark with natural grass and unusual outfield fences. But there were no longer deep center fields: these were intended to be hitter’s parks. Meanwhile more and more players were working out with weights and using chemicals, some of them illegal, to build up their muscles. Finally, there was another strike in 1994. The owners knew it was coming because they intended to force it. I’ve always believed that they ordered the laces on the balls tightened to an unprecedented degree for that season to create an explosion in offensive numbers in an effort to keep the fans interested in the game, despite the strike.
- In 2004, baseball started mandatory testing for illegal drugs such as steroids. People thought the offensive numbers would go down as a result. They didn’t, suggesting that the offensive explosion was more the result of other factors.
1870’s
1871 .384 1872 .348 1873 .356 1874 .334 1875 .310 1876 .321
1877 .338 1878 .320 1879 .329 Average: .338
1880’s
1880 .320 1881 .339 1882 .328 1883 .346 1884 .333 1885 .326
1886 .333 1887 .375 1888 .320 1889 .358 Average: .337
1890’s
1890 .338 1891 .343 1892 .328 1893 .380 1894 .438 1895 .400
1896 .368 1897 .387 1898 .347 1899 .367 Average: .370
1900’s
1900 .367 1901 .361 1902 .344 1903 .347 1904 .322 1905 .323
1906 .315 1907 .310 1908 .306 1909 .312 Average: .331
1910’s
1910 .326 1911 .358 1912 .359 1913 .346 1914 .330 1915 .329
1916 .327 1917 .325 1918 .326 1919 .349 Average: .338
1920’s
1920 .373 1921 .404 1922 .402 1923 .392 1924 .395 1925 .412
1926 .389 1927 .394 1928 .397 1929 .417 Average: .398
1930’s
1930 .435 1931 .392 1932 .401 1933 .377 1934.398 1935 .397
1936 .405 1937 .399 1938 .396 1939 .397 Average: .400
1940’s
1940 .392 1941 .376 1942 .351 1943 .345 1944 .359 1945 .355
1946 .361 1947 .378 1948 .383 1949 .385 Average: .369
1950’s
1950 .403 1951 .386 1952 .370 1953 .398 1954 .391 1955 .395
1956 .398 1957 .392 1958 .395 1959: .393 Average: .392
1960’s
1960 .388 1961 .401 1962 .394 1963 .372 1964 .379 1965 .373
1966 .377 1967 .358 1968 .341 1969 .370 Average: .375
1970’s
1970 .386 1971 .366 1972 .355 1973 .379 1974 .370 1975 .375
1976 .362 1977 .402 1978 .379 1979 .397 Average: .377
1980’s
1980 .388 1981 .369 1982 .388 1983 .389 1984 .384 1985 .390
1986 .394 1987 .415 1988 .377 1989 .375 Average: .387
1990’s
1990 .386 1991 .384 1992 .378 1993 .404 1994 .425 1995 .418
1996 .427 1997 .420 1998 .422 1999 .435 Average: .410
2000’s
2000 .438 2001 .427 2002 .417 2003 .423 2004 .428 2005 .419
2006 .422 2007 .423 2008 .417 2009 .419 Average: .423
2010’s
2010 .403 2011 .399 2012 .402 2013 .396 2014 .386 2015 .412
2016 .417 2017 .428 2018 .403 2019 .435 Average (to 2018): .405
Averaging the decades, (and counting the 1870’s and 2010’s for 9/10), the all-time composite major league slugging average is .377. The most “average” decade is the 1970’s although the 1960’s are very close. I suspect in the future that era will be regarded as “normal” and other eras either inflated or deflated by comparison. The achievements of individual players will be judged accordingly.
The years with .400 slugging averages:
1) 1894 and 2000 .438
2) see above
3) 1930 and 1999 .435 (and 2019 so far)
4) see above
5) 2004 .428
6) 1996 and 2001 .427
7) see above
8) 2017 .426
9) 1994 .425
10) 2003 and 2007 .423
11) see above
12) 1998 and 2006 .422
13) see above
14) 1997 .420
15) 2005 and 2009 .419
16) see above
17) 1995 .418
18) 1929, 2002,and 2008 .417
19) see above
20) see above
21) 2016 .416
22) 1987 .415
23) 1925 .412
24) 2018 .409
25) 1936 and 2012 .405
26) 1921, 1993, 2015 .404
27) see above
28) 1950 and 2010 .403
29) see above
30) 1922 and 1977 .402
31) see above
32) 1932 and 1961 .401
33) see above
34) 1895 .400
Comments: the Top 30 list includes 1893-94, seven years from the 1920’s and 1930’s, the expansion years of 1961, (1962 was .394 but 1969 only .370), 1977, 1993 and 1998 and every year from 1994-2009 and now 2012 and 2015 onward. It shows what an unprecedented period we have been in. In fact, 18 of the top 21 slugging years of all-time have been since 1994, matched only by 1894 and 1929-30. This includes 16 seasons in which mandatory drug testing has been in effect, indicating that either the testing is ineffective or that the impact of drug usage has been exaggerated.
The slugging percentage went up by 13 points with the first expansion of 1961-62, and then went down 22 points in 1963, thanks in part to Commissioner Frick. It went up again by 29 points in 1969, thanks in part to Commissioner Kuhn. It increased to .386 the next year but fell by 20 points in 1971. It went up by a whopping 40 points for the 1977 expansion, and then dropped by 23 points the next year. It went up by 26 points in 1993. But, instead of going down it went up another 21 points in 1994 and has basically stayed at that level since then. This suggests that expansion is not the cause of the current era’s offensive numbers.
1994 seems to be the year when everything changed. Prior to that, 11 players had hit 50 or more home runs a total of 18 times. There had never been a year in which more than two players hit 50 and only once had two players on the same team done it: 1961, the Yankees, (that’s still unmatched). That was the year Maris and Mantle, (they always reverse the order of the names), went after Babe Ruth’s record and Roger got it. In the third of a century after that only three players hit 50+ homers and none of them got anywhere near Maris: Willie Mays 52 in 1965, George Foster 52 in 1977, (one of those expansion years and the one that saw the biggest jump in slugging), and Cecil Fielder, 51 in 1990. If everyone had played 162 games in 1994, eight players would have done it in one year and two more would have hit 49. Here they are, along with our old friend Jose Canseco, the Johnny Appleseed of steroids, with their numbers per 162 games in 1993 and 1994:
Matt Williams 1993: 42 1994: 62
Ken Griffey Jr. 1993: 47 1994: 58
Jeff Bagwell 1993: 23 1994: 57
Albert Belle 1993: 39 1994: 55
Barry Bonds 1993: 47 1994: 54
Frank Thomas 1993: 43 1994: 54
Kevin Mitchell 1993: 33 1994: 51
Gary Sheffield 1993: 23 1994: 50
Fred McGriff 1993: 40 1994: 49
Andres Galaragga 1993: 30 1994: 49
Jose Canseco 1993: 27 1994: 45
It’s pretty obvious that there was a sea change there. It has to be something that changed between 1993 and 1994. Steriods and weight training were a part of the game before that. The whole league didn’t start taking steroids all at once in 1994. The only new ballpark that opened that year was Coors Field. That was in the National League and there was no interleague play then. I’ve heard things about pitchers not wanting to pitch inside because they came up against aluminum bats in the amateur ranks, where you don’t have to hit the ball with the thickest part of the bat to hit it hard. That hardly started in 1994. It wasn’t the weather that particular year: we’ve remained at that level ever since.
I didn’t find any progression of 7 years of numbers steadily increasing and then suddenly dropping but there was a four year stretch in the late 20’s and a drop in 1931 and a five year stretch right after the war with a drop in 1951-52. And in the year after the 1981 strike, the numbers jumped up 19 points and rose with only a slight dip in 1984 until the broken bat home run year of 1987, then dropped by 38 points in 1988.
I think the most plausible explanation for the offensive explosion of the last 16 years is that the owners knew the 1994 strike would be very unpopular but they were willing to risk it to break the union, (it didn’t work as Jerry Reinsdorf, who organized the strike, was the first to break ranks it by signing Albert Belle). To keep the fans interested, they had the laces on the ball tightened more than any time in history and that has been the biggest factor in all the balls flying out of the park since then.
But the scandal over the use of steroids and HGH has masked this strategy by putting the blame on the players, who were indeed doing something they shouldn’t have been doing, both in terms of obeying the rules, getting a competitive advantage and risking their health, (which is the real reason the drugs were banned in the first place). People see the headlines and assume the numbers were created by the juiced up batters, not the juiced up ball. The owners have never had the laces loosened because they would have to admit what they did, (which meant they knew the strike was coming which proves they forced it), and because they are making millions off the inflated numbers while letting the players take the blame.
What I’d really like to see is for players to not only “come clean” but to provide specific information on what they took and when, so that the real impact the drugs had could be calibrated. I think we’d find it was a lot less than supposed. Such a revelation might cause fewer players and young people to use drugs, in anticipation of becoming the next Mark McGwire. But Big Mac’s memory was small: he said he didn’t remember what he took or when. How about some Ginkgo Bilboa?
Historical Slugging
I decided to chart the history of slugging in baseball in the wake of Mark McGwire’s latest semi-confession. I didn’t do it with home run numbers. In some early ballparks there were no fences or they were 500 feet away. For years players didn’t even bother swinging for the fences both because of that and the fact that balls got reused for entire games, making them harder to hit and hit for power. Even after the “live ball” era began in 1920, (because they started to replace balls as dirty balls were considered a health hazard with the influenza epidemic), players only gradually changed the way they played the game. First teams avoided the new style of play, preferring “inside” baseball to “outside” baseball. Then everybody wanted to find their Babe Ruth. Then they wanted to add their Lou Gehrig. For many years, hitting home runs was considered the “job” of the middle of the order hitters and the rest of the line-up was still just trying to get on base. Then, with the coming of TV, players wanted to get on highlight films and gradually the entire line-up started swinging for the fences. But players have always wanted to hit the ball hard, even when it was a low line-drive for a double or a sharp grounder for a single. By using slugging percentage, (one base for a single, two for a double, three for a triple and four for a homer divided by official at-bats), we can see the trends in how hard the ball was being hit with the strategic tendencies being minimized.
What I did was to look at the overall league slugging percentages for each year and average those of the American and National league for 1901 to the present. For 1971-75 I used the National Association statistics. For 1876-81 and 1892-1900 I used the National League numbers. For 1882-1891 I averaged the National League and the American Association, which was regarded as a major league at the time, (they even had some early World Series between the two leagues). I did not use the Union Association of 1884, the Player’s league of 1890 and the Federal league of 1914-15 as they did not last long enough to establish themselves. There may have been unequal numbers of teams, games and at bats in some years so that the “average” I came up with may be slightly off but I did not feel any discrepancy would have been worth the extra time needed to compute the overall slugging percentage by combining the information on singles, doubles, triples, homers and at bats for each league. My sources were Total Baseball and Baseball reference.com, which listed league slugging percentages but not total bases.
Here are some key things to look for
- The pitcher’s mound was moved back from 50 to 60 feet in 1893. For a time the hitters went wild. But then the pitchers adjusted.
- Foul balls were first counted as strikes in the 1900’s. This plus the use of single balls for games and the spitball produced the “Dead Ball Era”.
- Beginning with Shibe Park in 1909, modern concrete and steel stadiums were erected. This established more permanent outfield fence distances. The parks tended to be down-city parks built to conform to city blocks. There were a lot of short porches, high walls and distant center field fences that created a lot of outfield space. William J. Jenkinson, author of “The Year Babe Ruth hit 104 Home Runs”, says that the outfield fences of Babe’s time were about 28 feet father on average than the ones Barry Bonds aimed his drives at.
- The ball was changed to its current composition, with the cork center in 1911. This increased batting averages much more than home runs.
- In 1920 came a “perfect storm”: A young rebel named Babe Ruth insisted on trying to hit the ball over the fence, angering old schools guys like Ty Cobb and John McGraw. The influenza epidemic caused public health authorities to insist that dirty balls be replaced and spitballs be banned. According to Bill James’ Historical Baseball Abstract, the number of new balls that have been used in games began to gradually increase from that point on. The immediate impact of this was an increase in batting averages more than in home runs. Babe Ruth’s exploits and the desire of other clubs to “get a Babe Ruth” slowly changed the thinking in the game over the next few years.
- The fan’s reaction to Ruth caused baseball to liven the ball with a “cushioned cork center” in 1925 to make it even livelier.
- After the entire National League batted a composite .303 in 1930, the NL decided to deaden the ball a little bit, (James doesn’t say how but loosening the laces is a popular method), resulting in a gap in the two leagues output for most of the decade, (but, as you can see below, it didn’t make that much difference).
- During the war, according to James, the balls were made of lesser materials. He says something in the ball was needed to produce “explosives or O.D green paint or something”. Of course the top players were in the service as well.
- The game was slowly integrated with black and Latin players beginning in the late 40’s, increasing the talent base. But there weren’t large numbers of them until the 60’s.
- Franchise shifts and expansion produced new stadiums beginning when the Braves moved to Milwaukee in 1953. Teams in the old cities wanted new ballparks as well. The new places tended to be out in the suburbs and to have regular dimensions and artificial turf.
- Expansion tends to cause offensive spikes as new players are given opportunities to play and depth is tested on the established teams. It seems to take longer to find the new pitchers than it does the new hitters. But the numbers return to normal after a year or so. The expansion years were 1961, 1962, 1969, 1977, 1993 and 1998.
- After Roger Maris- in an expansion year- beat Babe Ruth’s home record, Commissioner Ford Frick, who as a sportswriter had been Ruth’s ghost-writer for his autobiography, feared that a lot of records would be broken due to the supposed dilution of talent in the major leagues, (actually, with the rise in population, the integration of the game and the rise in the use of foreign players, the depth of talent is probably greater now than it was prior to expansion). Frick ordered the pitcher’s mound raised and the strike zone expanded to combat this. The result was the greatest decade for pitchers and the worst for hitters since the dead ball era.
- In 1968 the entire American League batted .230 and the National League .242. The composite historical major league batting average is .262. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn reversed Frick’s edicts. According to James, this was also the time ball clubs began covering center field seats with a tarp to create a “batter’s eye”.
- In 1981 there was strike that threatened the popularity of the game. Offensive numbers went up steadily for 7 years. In 1987, players were hitting broken-bat home runs. Players who never hit home runs were hitting 20+ homers. In 1998, the bottom dropped out. Many players who had never been sluggers but became them in ’87 found those long fly balls weren’t so long any more in ’88 and the bottom dropped out of their batting averages and their careers. (Look at a “Who’s Who in Baseball from about 1990 and you’ll see what I mean.) There was an article at that time that said that a retired worker from the plant that made major league baseballs said that they used to get orders to tighten the laces on the balls progressively for several years in a row, and then loosen them. The writer claimed that the numbers show a pattern of increased offensive numbers, which put fannies in the seats but increase player contracts, for 7 year periods, followed by a sudden drop in offensive numbers, (which allows teams to cut contracts as the numbers go down- or at least used to), followed by another gradual tightening of the laces. The theory was that, in the wake of the 1981 strike, this had been done to get the fans interested again.
- In the 1990’s there was another “perfect storm”. Beginning with Camden Yards in 1990, the era of the “retro park” began. Now everyone wanted a downtown ballpark with natural grass and unusual outfield fences. But there were no longer deep center fields: these were intended to be hitter’s parks. Meanwhile more and more players were working out with weights and using chemicals, some of them illegal, to build up their muscles. Finally, there was another strike in 1994. The owners knew it was coming because they intended to force it. I’ve always believed that they ordered the laces on the balls tightened to an unprecedented degree for that season to create an explosion in offensive numbers in an effort to keep the fans interested in the game, despite the strike.
- In 2004, baseball started mandatory testing for illegal drugs such as steroids. People thought the offensive numbers would go down as a result. They didn’t, suggesting that the offensive explosion was more the result of other factors.
1870’s
1871 .384 1872 .348 1873 .356 1874 .334 1875 .310 1876 .321
1877 .338 1878 .320 1879 .329 Average: .338
1880’s
1880 .320 1881 .339 1882 .328 1883 .346 1884 .333 1885 .326
1886 .333 1887 .375 1888 .320 1889 .358 Average: .337
1890’s
1890 .338 1891 .343 1892 .328 1893 .380 1894 .438 1895 .400
1896 .368 1897 .387 1898 .347 1899 .367 Average: .370
1900’s
1900 .367 1901 .361 1902 .344 1903 .347 1904 .322 1905 .323
1906 .315 1907 .310 1908 .306 1909 .312 Average: .331
1910’s
1910 .326 1911 .358 1912 .359 1913 .346 1914 .330 1915 .329
1916 .327 1917 .325 1918 .326 1919 .349 Average: .338
1920’s
1920 .373 1921 .404 1922 .402 1923 .392 1924 .395 1925 .412
1926 .389 1927 .394 1928 .397 1929 .417 Average: .398
1930’s
1930 .435 1931 .392 1932 .401 1933 .377 1934.398 1935 .397
1936 .405 1937 .399 1938 .396 1939 .397 Average: .400
1940’s
1940 .392 1941 .376 1942 .351 1943 .345 1944 .359 1945 .355
1946 .361 1947 .378 1948 .383 1949 .385 Average: .369
1950’s
1950 .403 1951 .386 1952 .370 1953 .398 1954 .391 1955 .395
1956 .398 1957 .392 1958 .395 1959: .393 Average: .392
1960’s
1960 .388 1961 .401 1962 .394 1963 .372 1964 .379 1965 .373
1966 .377 1967 .358 1968 .341 1969 .370 Average: .375
1970’s
1970 .386 1971 .366 1972 .355 1973 .379 1974 .370 1975 .375
1976 .362 1977 .402 1978 .379 1979 .397 Average: .377
1980’s
1980 .388 1981 .369 1982 .388 1983 .389 1984 .384 1985 .390
1986 .394 1987 .415 1988 .377 1989 .375 Average: .387
1990’s
1990 .386 1991 .384 1992 .378 1993 .404 1994 .425 1995 .418
1996 .427 1997 .420 1998 .422 1999 .435 Average: .410
2000’s
2000 .438 2001 .427 2002 .417 2003 .423 2004 .428 2005 .419
2006 .422 2007 .423 2008 .417 2009 .419 Average: .423
2010’s
2010 .403 2011 .399 2012 .402 2013 .396 2014 .386 2015 .412
2016 .417 2017 .428 2018 .403 2019 .435 Average (to 2018): .405
Averaging the decades, (and counting the 1870’s and 2010’s for 9/10), the all-time composite major league slugging average is .377. The most “average” decade is the 1970’s although the 1960’s are very close. I suspect in the future that era will be regarded as “normal” and other eras either inflated or deflated by comparison. The achievements of individual players will be judged accordingly.
The years with .400 slugging averages:
1) 1894 and 2000 .438
2) see above
3) 1930 and 1999 .435 (and 2019 so far)
4) see above
5) 2004 .428
6) 1996 and 2001 .427
7) see above
8) 2017 .426
9) 1994 .425
10) 2003 and 2007 .423
11) see above
12) 1998 and 2006 .422
13) see above
14) 1997 .420
15) 2005 and 2009 .419
16) see above
17) 1995 .418
18) 1929, 2002,and 2008 .417
19) see above
20) see above
21) 2016 .416
22) 1987 .415
23) 1925 .412
24) 2018 .409
25) 1936 and 2012 .405
26) 1921, 1993, 2015 .404
27) see above
28) 1950 and 2010 .403
29) see above
30) 1922 and 1977 .402
31) see above
32) 1932 and 1961 .401
33) see above
34) 1895 .400
Comments: the Top 30 list includes 1893-94, seven years from the 1920’s and 1930’s, the expansion years of 1961, (1962 was .394 but 1969 only .370), 1977, 1993 and 1998 and every year from 1994-2009 and now 2012 and 2015 onward. It shows what an unprecedented period we have been in. In fact, 18 of the top 21 slugging years of all-time have been since 1994, matched only by 1894 and 1929-30. This includes 16 seasons in which mandatory drug testing has been in effect, indicating that either the testing is ineffective or that the impact of drug usage has been exaggerated.
The slugging percentage went up by 13 points with the first expansion of 1961-62, and then went down 22 points in 1963, thanks in part to Commissioner Frick. It went up again by 29 points in 1969, thanks in part to Commissioner Kuhn. It increased to .386 the next year but fell by 20 points in 1971. It went up by a whopping 40 points for the 1977 expansion, and then dropped by 23 points the next year. It went up by 26 points in 1993. But, instead of going down it went up another 21 points in 1994 and has basically stayed at that level since then. This suggests that expansion is not the cause of the current era’s offensive numbers.
1994 seems to be the year when everything changed. Prior to that, 11 players had hit 50 or more home runs a total of 18 times. There had never been a year in which more than two players hit 50 and only once had two players on the same team done it: 1961, the Yankees, (that’s still unmatched). That was the year Maris and Mantle, (they always reverse the order of the names), went after Babe Ruth’s record and Roger got it. In the third of a century after that only three players hit 50+ homers and none of them got anywhere near Maris: Willie Mays 52 in 1965, George Foster 52 in 1977, (one of those expansion years and the one that saw the biggest jump in slugging), and Cecil Fielder, 51 in 1990. If everyone had played 162 games in 1994, eight players would have done it in one year and two more would have hit 49. Here they are, along with our old friend Jose Canseco, the Johnny Appleseed of steroids, with their numbers per 162 games in 1993 and 1994:
Matt Williams 1993: 42 1994: 62
Ken Griffey Jr. 1993: 47 1994: 58
Jeff Bagwell 1993: 23 1994: 57
Albert Belle 1993: 39 1994: 55
Barry Bonds 1993: 47 1994: 54
Frank Thomas 1993: 43 1994: 54
Kevin Mitchell 1993: 33 1994: 51
Gary Sheffield 1993: 23 1994: 50
Fred McGriff 1993: 40 1994: 49
Andres Galaragga 1993: 30 1994: 49
Jose Canseco 1993: 27 1994: 45
It’s pretty obvious that there was a sea change there. It has to be something that changed between 1993 and 1994. Steriods and weight training were a part of the game before that. The whole league didn’t start taking steroids all at once in 1994. The only new ballpark that opened that year was Coors Field. That was in the National League and there was no interleague play then. I’ve heard things about pitchers not wanting to pitch inside because they came up against aluminum bats in the amateur ranks, where you don’t have to hit the ball with the thickest part of the bat to hit it hard. That hardly started in 1994. It wasn’t the weather that particular year: we’ve remained at that level ever since.
I didn’t find any progression of 7 years of numbers steadily increasing and then suddenly dropping but there was a four year stretch in the late 20’s and a drop in 1931 and a five year stretch right after the war with a drop in 1951-52. And in the year after the 1981 strike, the numbers jumped up 19 points and rose with only a slight dip in 1984 until the broken bat home run year of 1987, then dropped by 38 points in 1988.
I think the most plausible explanation for the offensive explosion of the last 16 years is that the owners knew the 1994 strike would be very unpopular but they were willing to risk it to break the union, (it didn’t work as Jerry Reinsdorf, who organized the strike, was the first to break ranks it by signing Albert Belle). To keep the fans interested, they had the laces on the ball tightened more than any time in history and that has been the biggest factor in all the balls flying out of the park since then.
But the scandal over the use of steroids and HGH has masked this strategy by putting the blame on the players, who were indeed doing something they shouldn’t have been doing, both in terms of obeying the rules, getting a competitive advantage and risking their health, (which is the real reason the drugs were banned in the first place). People see the headlines and assume the numbers were created by the juiced up batters, not the juiced up ball. The owners have never had the laces loosened because they would have to admit what they did, (which meant they knew the strike was coming which proves they forced it), and because they are making millions off the inflated numbers while letting the players take the blame.
What I’d really like to see is for players to not only “come clean” but to provide specific information on what they took and when, so that the real impact the drugs had could be calibrated. I think we’d find it was a lot less than supposed. Such a revelation might cause fewer players and young people to use drugs, in anticipation of becoming the next Mark McGwire. But Big Mac’s memory was small: he said he didn’t remember what he took or when. How about some Ginkgo Bilboa?
