I have been saying the same thing this VPI poster is saying. And he is spot on!!!
The ACC pretty much owns the Eastern Time Zone in terms of college sports. From Syracuse; which is practically Canada; to Coral Cables; which is practically Cuba; the ACC has a presence in these Eastern Time Zone States:
1. New York State (Population 19.4 Million)
2. Pennsylvania (Population (12.7 Million)
3. Mass. (6.6 Million)
4. Kentucky (4.4 Million)
5. Indiana (6.5 Million)
6. Virginia (8 million)
7. North Carolina (9.7 million. I'd bet that surprises some of you.)
8. South Carolina (4.7 million)
9. Georgia (9.8 Million)
10. Florida (19 Millon)
Total ACC population = 100.8 Million people in the ACC footprint
Let's compare that to the States the Big 12 owns:
1. West Virginia (1 school) - Population 1.9 Million
2. Kansas (2 schools) - Population 2.3 Millon
3. Oklahoma (2 schools) - Population 3.8 Million
4. Iowa (1 school) - Population 3 million
5. Texas (4 schools) - Populaton 25.7 Million
Total Big 12 populaton = 36.7 Million in the Big 12 footprint.
Hell New York City by itself has more people than West Va. or Kansas or Oklahoma or Iowa!!!!
Now if I am an ESPN TV executive; which of these two lineups would I value the most in terms the potential number of viewers? Which of these two line ups would I be more motivated to keep in tact and help grow?
Also what are the population growth rates for the ACC states versus the Big 12 states:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_b y_population_growth_rate
The average population growth rate for the whole country is 1.67%. Only one Big 12 state is above that average.
Let's start with the 5 Big 12 states.
1. #2 Texas is growing at 3.31% at year.
2. #23 Oklahoma is growing at 1.67% a year.
3. #30 Kansas is growing at 1.15% a year.
4. #34 Iowa is growing at 0.94% a year.
5. #45 West Virginia is growing at .0.13% a year. (Now who would have guessed that?)
Now let's look at annual population growth in the 10 ACC States. 5 ACC States are above the national average in terms of population growth.
1. #6 Florida is growing at 2.75% a year.
2. #9 Georgia is growing at 2.4% a year.
3. #12 Virginia is growing at 2.31% a year.
4. #13 North Carolina is growing at 2.27% a year.
5. #17 South Carolina is growing at 2.13% a year.
6. #27 Massachusetts is growing at 1.5% a year.
7. #32 New York is growing at 0.99% a year.
8. #33 Kentucky is growing at 0.95% a year.
9. #37 Indiana is growing at 0.83% a year.
10. #41 Pennsylvania is growing at 0.48% a year.
Now if you are thinking for the long term; say the next 20 years; which of these pictures looks better in terms of a growing viewership?
Basically the ACC TV contract is going to get reworked very soon because it is in ESPN's best interests to do so. They have the TV exec's wet dream; the entire Eastern Seaboard under contract with them!!!!!
Why would the TV executive want to see the ACC fracture and split up?
Between the ACC and SEC; ESPN pretty much has what they want in terms of viewership. The potential viewership added by the Big 12 is pretty much noise in comparison. And if the Big 12 went away; no one would miss it.
Also between the ACC and SEC; ESPN has the fastest growing region in the country. Yes my friend the South is going to rise again!!!! People are not moving to West Virginia or Iowa. They are leaving!!!!
The Big 12 is still in desperation mode. The GOR has postponed the inevitable. And I'd argue the GOR has made it harder for the Big 12 to attract quality schools to add. And the Long Horn Network with the revenue Texas refuses to share; would definitely rub quality schools like Clemson and FSU the wrong way.
In the end I can see the SEC, PAC-12, and Big 12 fighting over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. And I'd see the SEC winning that fight by getting OU and Kansas. Texas is just too much of a pain in the *** to deal with.
After all which conferences have lost the most schools since this whole mess started:
1. Big East - (8) VPI, BC, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Rutgers and WVU.
2. Big 12 - (4) Missouri, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Nebraska
3. ACC - (1) Maryland
4. SEC - None
5. Big 10 - None
6. PAC 12 - None
So based on this the Big East is now pretty much toast. So which of the remaining Big 5 conferences looks to be in the weakest position? And let's base that on who they have lost and most importantly who they have been able to back fill those losses with.
1. Big 12 loses Missouri, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Nebraska and back fills with WVU and TCU. They go from 12 members down to 10 members and lose two power houses in A&M and Nebraska in the process.
2. ACC loses mediocre Maryland and not only back fills; but expands with Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and ND. (ND still counts because they are playing basketball and everything else as an ACC member.) ACC goes from 12 to 14 full time in football and from 12 to 15 full time in basketball and everything else.
So I'd like for these rocket scientists from West Virginia to explain to me why the ACC is in a weaker position than the Big 12? The ACC people are not the ones in denial here.
Also for those who don't think the ACC has been proactive; how long ago was it that VPI, BC, and Miami were added to the league? Swafford for all of his faults; saw this coming long before anyone else did. And as the VPI poster remarked; those who have under estimated him have paid dearly for it.
